Getting Ahead of the Wildfire Problem: Quantifying and Mapping Management Challenges and Opportunities

Silva

Calkin

et al. 2017

Int. J. Wildland Fire

Self Cite

Abstract. Characterising the impacts of wildland fire and fire suppression is critical information for fire management decision-making. Here, we focus on decisions related to the rare larger and longer-duration fire events, where the scope and scale of decision-making can be far broader than initial response efforts, and where determining and demonstrating efficiency of strategies and actions can be particularly troublesome. We organise our review around key decision factors such as context, complexity, alternatives, consequences and uncertainty, and for illustration contrast fire management in Andalusia, Spain, and Montana, USA. Two of the largest knowledge gaps relate to quantifying fire impacts to ecosystem services, and modelling relationships between fire management activities and avoided damages. The relative magnitude of these and other concerns varies with the complexity of the socioecological context in which fire management decisions are made. To conclude our review, we examine topics for future research, including expanded use of the economics toolkit to better characterise the productivity and effectiveness of suppression actions, integration of ecosystem modelling with economic principles, and stronger adoption of risk and decision analysis within fire management decision-making.

Section: Consequences Of Fire Suppressionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of challenges to determining and demonstrating efficiency of large fire management

Silva

Calkin

et al. 2017

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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“…PODs are landscape polygons whose boundaries are features that are relevant to fire containment operations, such as roads, ridgetops, fuel transitions, water bodies, etc., within which risks, opportunities, and response strategies can be summarized [23]. PODs can be built using a combination of geospatial analysis and local expert knowledge, often with supporting analytical products identifying suppression opportunities and potential control locations (PCLs) [24,25]. PODs have been used to summarize suppression difficulty and protection demand [26], to optimize fuel treatment placement across a landscape [27], and, most relevant for our purposes, to optimize creation of clustered, or aggregated, response PODs (rPODs) for real-time incident support [28].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Designing Operationally Relevant Daily Large Fire Containment Strategies Using Risk Assessment Results

Wei

Scott³

et al. 2019

Forests

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In this study, we aim to advance the optimization of daily large fire containment strategies for ground-based suppression resources by leveraging fire risk assessment results commonly used by fire managers in the western USA. We begin from an existing decision framework that spatially overlays fire risk assessment results with pre-identified potential wildland fire operational delineations (PODs), and then clusters PODs into a response POD (rPOD) using a mixed integer program (MIP) model to minimize expected loss. We improve and expand upon this decision framework through enhanced fire modeling integration and refined analysis of probabilistic and time-sensitive information. Specifically, we expand the set of data inputs to include raster layers of simulated burn probability, flame length probability, fire arrival time, and expected net value change, all calculated using a common set of stochastic weather forecasts and landscape data. Furthermore, we develop a secondary optimization model that, for a given optimal rPOD, dictates the timing of fire line construction activities to ensure completion of containment line prior to fire arrival along specific rPOD edges. The set of management decisions considered includes assignment of PODs to be included in the rPOD, assignment of suppression resources to protect susceptible structures within the rPOD, and assignment of suppression resources to construct fire lines, on specific days, along the perimeter of the rPOD. We explore how fire manager risk preferences regarding firefighter safety affect optimal rPOD characteristics, and use a simple decision tree to display multiple solutions and support rapid assessment of alternatives. We base our test cases on the FSPro simulation of the 2017 Sliderock Fire that burned on the Lolo National Forest in Montana, USA. The overarching goal of this research is to generate operationally relevant decision support that can best balance the benefits and losses from wildfire and the cost from responding to wildfire.

“…For example, probabilistic fire simulation modeling can serve as the underpinning for assessment of risk to highly valued resources, and subsequent delineation of zones where unplanned ignitions can be used as a tool for fuel reduction and forest restoration with low risk [34]. These assessments can further be coupled with spatially-explicit information on factors related to responder safety and suppression difficulty to improve fire management operations [35,36]. These new analytical products show promise in supporting risk-informed decision making, ideally resulting in expanded use of unplanned ignitions for resource benefit, fuel treatment and reduced responder exposure.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We leverage recent research and best practices in framing possible alternative strategies in a novel modeling framework in order to yield insight into the impact of changing suppression strategies and as a tool to understand knowledge gaps [32,35]. We alter model inputs and parameters to approximate alternative management strategies during large fires.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Model-Based Framework to Evaluate Alternative Wildfire Suppression Strategies

Riley

Scott³

et al. 2018

Resources

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Abstract:The complexity and demands of wildland firefighting in the western U.S. have increased over recent decades due to factors including the expansion of the wildland-urban interface, lengthening fire seasons associated with climate change, and changes in vegetation due to past fire suppression and timber harvest. In light of these changes, the use of more wildland fire on the landscape could reduce fuels and form barriers to the spread of future fires while performing forest restoration in some areas. However, the risks, costs and benefits of changing fire response strategy have not been quantified. Here, we identify gaps regarding the ability to simulate alternative wildfire suppression strategies, due to a number of factors including limited data collected on fireline construction, as well as synergies between firefighting resources and resource effectiveness. We present a fire management continuum: at one end lies full suppression of all fires under all circumstances, and at the opposite end lies no suppression of any fires regardless of location or time in season, with a wide array of managed fire options falling in between. Next, we demonstrate the proof-of-concept using a stochastic fire simulation model, FSim, to simulate two alternative fire suppression strategies close to opposite ends of this continuum for the Sierra National Forest of California: (1) business-as-usual, which equates to nearly full fire suppression; and (2) full suppression of human-caused fires and no suppression actions on lightning-caused fires. Results indicate that fire management strategy can substantially affect the number of large fires and landscape burn probabilities, both of which were shown to increase under the second scenario. However, temporal feedbacks are expected to play an important role: we show that increases in burned area substantially limit ignition potential and the extent of subsequent fires within the first five to ten years, especially under the second scenario. While subject to current data gaps and limitations in fire modeling, the methodology presented here can be used to simulate a number of alternative fire suppression strategies, including decisions to suppress or not suppress fires based on location, time of season or other factors. This method also provides basic inputs needed to estimate risks, costs and benefits of various alternative suppression strategies in future work. In future work, uncertainties resulting from current limitations in knowledge can be addressed using techniques such as scenario planning in order to provide land managers with a set of possible fire outcomes.