GIS-Based Frequency Ratio and Analytic Hierarchy Process for Forest Fire Susceptibility Mapping in the Western Region of Syria

Abstract

Forest fires are among the most major causes of global ecosystem degradation. The integration of spatial information from various sources using statistical analyses in the GIS environment is an original tool in managing the spread of forest fires, which is one of the most significant natural hazards in the western region of Syria. Moreover, the western region of Syria is characterized by a significant lack of data to assess forest fire susceptibility as one of the most significant consequences of the current war. This study aimed to conduct a performance comparison of frequency ratio (FR) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) techniques in delineating the spatial distribution of forest fire susceptibility in the Al-Draikich region, located in the western region of Syria. An inventory map of historical forest fire events was produced by spatially digitizing 32 fire incidents during the summers of 2019, 2020, and 2021. The forest fire events were divided into a training dataset with 70% (22 events) and a test dataset with 30% (10 events). Subsequently, FR and AHP techniques were used to associate the training data set with the 13 driving factors: slope, aspect, curvature, elevation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), rainfall, temperature, wind speed, TWI, and distance to settlements, rivers and roads. The accuracy of the maps resulting from the modeling process was checked using the validation dataset and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves with the area under the curve (AUC). The FR method with AUC = 0.864 achieved the highest value compared to the AHP method with AUC = 0.838. The outcomes of this assessment provide constructive spatial insights for adopting forest management strategies in the study area, especially in light of the consequences of the current war.

Quantifying the water soil erosion rate using RUSLE, GIS, and RS approach for Al-Qshish River Basin, Lattakia, Syria

“…5). The spatial distributions of C factor values showed that the southern and western regions showed high values due to the pressure of human activity, particularly urban sprawl, dense agriculture and forest fire (Abdo et al, 2022). Meanwhile, low values of factor C are concentrated in the northern and eastern regions due to the density of vegetation and grass cover, which enhances the biological protection of the soil profile.…”

The assessment of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects of the Brazilian Cerrado

“…Despite the vital role of fire in the renovation and growth of plants (Durigan and Ratter 2016;Abdo 2018;Abdo et al 2022), however, most of the wildfires originating over the biome arise from human actions (Mataveli et al 2018;Silva Junior et al 2019). Concern exists regarding Cerrado's ability to support endemic fauna and flora (Durigan and Ratter 2016;Garcia and Ballester 2016;Abreu et al 2017).…”

A baseline survey of potentially toxic elements in the soil of north-west Syria following a decade of conflict

“…The collapse of the economy and infrastructure has proliferated informal, unregulated industries such as petroleum refining and electroplating industries, tanneries, use of poor-quality agricultural fertilizers and the burning of leaded fossil fuels and coal (UN-Habitat, 2022). These indirect impacts of the devastating conflict exacerbate the direct environmental impacts of munitions, shelling, and military manoeuvres (Zwijnenburg et al, 2020) and are set against long-term regional drought, placing severe pressure on water resources and increasing the incidence of forest fires (Homsi et al, 2020;Abdo et al, 2022). In combination, these factors create an extraordinary level of threat to soil quality, human health and the agricultural economy, both as direct hazards and longer-term risks to socio-environmental recovery and restoration in a region where agriculture is historically the primary source of income and is now a principal factor in food security (UNOCHA, 2022b).…”

“…4 These indirect impacts of the devastating conict exacerbate the direct environmental impacts of munitions, shelling, and military manoeuvres 5 and are set against long-term regional drought, placing severe pressure on water resources and increasing the incidence of forest res. 6,7 In combination, these factors create an extraordinary level of threat to soil quality, human health and the agricultural economy, both as direct hazards and longer-term risks to socio-environmental recovery and restoration in a region where agriculture is historically the primary source of income and is now a principal factor in food security. 8 The elements Pb, As, Hg, Cd, Co, Zn, Ba, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pd, Sn, V, and Pt are a group of metals and metalloids that have a relatively high density and are toxic even at parts per million (ppm) levels.…”