Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy: An End‐of‐2021 Assessment

Abstract

Timely, high‐quality mortality data have allowed for assessments of the impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) on life expectancies in upper‐middle‐ and high‐income countries. Extant data, though imperfect, suggest that the bulk of the pandemic‐induced mortality might have occurred elsewhere. This article reports on changes in life expectancies around the world as far as they can be estimated from the evidence available at the end of 2021. The global life expectancy appears to have declined by 0.92 years between 2019 and 2020 and by another 0.72 years between 2020 and 2021, but the decline seems to have ended during the last quarter of 2021. Uncertainty about its exact size aside, this represents the first decline in global life expectancy since 1950, the first year for which a global estimate is available from the United Nations. Annual declines in life expectancy (from a 12‐month period to the next) appear to have exceeded two years at some point before the end of 2021 in at least 50 countries. Since 1950, annual declines of that magnitude had only been observed on rare occasions, such as Cambodia in the 1970s, Rwanda in the 1990s, and possibly some sub‐Saharan African nations at the peak of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) pandemic.

Bounce backs amid continued losses: Life expectancy changes since COVID-19

“…Consequently our international analysis based on 29 high and middle income countries may give a skewed impression of the global impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy. Indirect life expectancy estimates for 2020-21 based upon excess deaths 18 indicate substantial losses across South America, which match or exceed the losses we estimated for Eastern Europe. India and select countries in the Middle East likely had losses on par with the U.S. whereas Russia and Mexico suffered life expectancy losses in excess of the 42 months we estimated for Bulgaria.…”

“…Emerging estimates of life expectancy losses based on excess deaths suggest that most Western European countries are expected to partly recover from losses observed in 2020, while other countries including the USA and Russia will suffer further life expectancy declines. 18…”

“…Emerging estimates of life expectancy losses based on excess deaths suggest that most Western European countries are expected to partly recover from losses observed in 2020, while other countries including the USA and Russia will suffer further life expectancy declines. 18 We examine life expectancy changes since 2019 in 29 countries, including most of Europe, the USA and Chile using data on all-cause mortality from the Short-Term Fluctuations Database (STMF) 19 following a previously validated methodology. 6 We distinguish between annual life expectancy changes and life expectancy deficits, the former showing the raw year to year difference, the later indicating the difference between observed and expected life expectancy had pre-pandemic trends continued.…”

Years of life lost during the Covid-19 pandemic in Sweden considering variation in life expectancy by level of geriatric care

“…Almost all countries experienced excess mortality during the pandemic [9,10]. The increase in mortality has resulted in declining life expectancy across most countries where information is available [11,12]. Both excess mortality as well as life expectancy have been argued to be among the most objective indicators for the consequences of the pandemic on population-level mortality [12][13][14].…”

Health-Related Quality of Life and Its Socio-Demographic and Behavioural Correlates during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Estonia

“…Two and a half years since the first cases were identified in China [ 1 ], over 552 million COVID-19 infections have been registered and over 6.4 million deaths confirmed globally as of July 2022 [ 2 ]. As a result, estimated global life expectancy has reduced by more than 1.6 years—a change that is unprecedented in recent history [ 3 ].…”