Global Carbon Emissions in the Coming Decades: The Case of China

Abstract

China's annual energy-related carbon emissions surpassed those of the United States in 2006, years ahead of published international and Chinese forecasts. Why were forecasts so greatly in error and what drove the rapid growth of China's energy-related carbon emssions after 2001? The divergence between actual and forecasted carbon emissions underscores the rapid changes that have taken place in China's energy system since 2001. In order to build a more robust understanding of China's energy-related carbon emissions, this article reviews the role of economic restructuring, urbanization, coal dependence, international trade, and central government policies in driving emissions growth.

Constructed peer groups and path dependence in international organizations: The case of the international climate change negotiations

“…Such a lasting divide can be regarded as a largely unintended consequence of institutional design with an impact on regime effectiveness: in the early 1990s, nobody could foresee how the emission paths of different countries would evolve (see e.g. Levine and Aden, 2008, showing the stark changes in subsequent forecasts of future emission levels for China), how critical addressing these emissions would become for the effectiveness of the regime 20 years onwards, and how difficult it would be to do so due to the institutionalized separation of commitments by Annex I and non-Annex I parties.…”

The evolution of Chinese policies and governance structures on environment, energy and climate

“…However, since China has surpassed the US and become the largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs) (Levine and Aden, 2008), international pressure to tackle its carbon emissions has increased. As China has set the target to quadruple GDP from 2000 to 2020, and given that its energy system is largely coal-based, GHG emissions are expected to grow rapidly in the coming decades (IPCC, 2000).…”

Effects of energy conservation in major energy-intensive industrial sectors on emissions of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans in China

“…The rate of increase in CO 2 is much faster than expected (Levine and Aden, 2008;Levine et al, 2009).…”