Global change impacts on wheat production along an environmental gradient in south Australia

Reyenga, P. J.; Howden, S. M.; Meinke, Holger; Hall, W. B.

doi:10.1016/s0160-4120(01)00082-4

Cited by 35 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Mean rice yield changes for each grid were averaged for the study periods (see Section 2.2) under the 2 climate change scenarios. To calculate the changes in rice planting areas, a criterion described by Reyenga et al (2001) was employed to identify suitable areas for rice planting. Holding the same geographical distribution of arable land as in 2000, a grid in which the annual probability of achieving a certain yield (4 t ha -1 ) within a given 30 yr scenario is > 0.5 was assumed to be a viable region for rice planting.…”

Section: Simulation Runs and Analysis For Changes In Yield And Sown Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(1): (1) where Y m,n is the averaged annual rice production under scenario m (A2 or B2), in period n, y r,i is the simulated yield of single rice or early sown rice in areas of double rice cropping system, and y ' r,i is later sown rice in the double rice cropping system, for the r th year and ith grid (2622 grids in total were included). A and A' are the sown areas of single rice or early sown rice and later sown rice, respectively, for which baseline A and A' values were taken from Frolking et al (2002) and Qiu et al (2003), and were calculated for the future based on simulated yields and application of the yield criteria laid out by Reyenga et al (2001). In addition, annual yields over 30 yr were compared between the baseline and 2080s values, in terms of the coefficient of variation (CV) and yield distribution at both national and regional scales, to analyze the effects of climate variability.…”

Section: Simulation Runs and Analysis For Changes In Yield And Sown Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on China’s rice yield and production

Xiong¹,

Conway²,

Lin³

et al. 2009

Clim. Res.

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ABSTRACT:We assessed the effect of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, as well as the direct fertilization effect of CO 2 , on rice yields and production in China. Our methodology coupled the regional climate model PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) with the CERES (Crop Environment Resources Synthesis) rice crop model to simulate current and future (2011-2100) rice yields and production under A2 and B2 climate change scenarios. The movement of rice-producing areas to more favorable climatic conditions was also considered. Results demonstrate that simulated future rice yields decrease without the CO 2 fertilization effect and increase in some areas and time slices with it. Yield variability measured by the coefficient of variation exhibits increases in both scenarios, with the largest increases under A2. Due to favorable climatic conditions, single rice cropping may expand further north in China, and double rice cropping may move to the northern portion of the Yangtze River basin. China's potential rice production is projected to increase in the future, due to the CO 2 fertilization effect and shifts in rice-producing areas. Three rice cultivation regions (Sichuan basin, Yangtze River basin, and Huang-huaihai plain) are identified as highly sensitive to future climate change if no adaptation measures are implemented, due to yield decreases and large increases in production variability.

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Section: Simulation Runs and Analysis For Changes In Yield And Sown Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Simulation Runs and Analysis For Changes In Yield And Sown Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on China’s rice yield and production

Xiong¹,

Conway²,

Lin³

et al. 2009

Clim. Res.

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“…Compared with the large number of impact assessment studies, adaptation evaluation is seldom adequately assessed, even though a few studies have considered these two issues together by using process-oriented crop models (Wang et al, 1992;Qureshi and Iglesias, 1994;Seino, 1995;Brklacich and Stewart, 1995;Baethgen and Magrin;1995;Delécolle et al, 1995;Bayasgalan et al, 1996;Rosenzweig and Iglesias, 1998;Howden et al, 1999;Reyenga et al, 1999a, Torriani et al, 2007. However, most climate change risk assessment studies so far end with impact assessment (some examples are Aggarwal and Sinha, 1993;Barry and Geng, 1995;Tubiello et al, 1995;Pilifosova et al, 1996;Karim et al, 1996;Reyenga et al, 1999b;2005a, b;Van Ittersum et al, 2003). To some extent, the role of impact assessment is to set the scene for adaptation evaluation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation to climate change of wheat growing in South Australia: Analysis of management and breeding strategies

Luo

Bellotti

Williams

et al. 2009

Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment

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Evaluation of adaptive management options is very crucial for successfully dealing with negative climate change impacts. Research objectives of this study were (1) to determine the proper N application rate for current practice, (2) to select a range of synthetic wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars to expand the existing wheat cultivar pool for adaptation purpose, (3) to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on wheat grain yield and (4) to evaluate the effectiveness of three common management options such as early sowing, changing N application rate and use of different wheat cultivars derived in (2) and given in the APSIM-Wheat model package in dealing with the projected negative impacts for Keith, South Australia. The APSIM-Wheat model was used to achieve these objectives. It was found that 75kg ha-1 N application at sowing for current situation is appropriate for the study location. This provided a non-limiting N supply condition for climate change impact and adaptation evaluation. Negative impacts of climate change on wheat grain yield were projected under both high (-15%) and low (-10%) plant available water capacity conditions. Neither changes in N application level nor in wheat cultivar alone nor their synergistic effects could offset the negative climate change impact. It was found that early sowing is an effective adaptation strategy when initial * Corresponding author current organisation and contacts NSW Department of Primary Industries Postal address: PO BOX 100, Beecroft, NSW, 2119 Australia Email: qunying.luo@2003.adelaide.edu.au (perpetual email), qunying.luo@dpi.nsw.gov.au Phone: 61 2 9872 0117 Fax: 61 2 9871 6941 2 soil water was reset at 25 mm at sowing but this may be hard to realise especially since a drier environment is projected.

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“…These include the assessment on individual effects of rising temperature and CO 2 concentration ([CO 2 ]) and rainfall changes (Wang et al 1992;Reyenga et al 1999Reyenga et al , 2001Howden et al 1999aHowden et al , b, 2001van Ittersum et al 2003;Ludwig and Asseng 2006) and the compound impacts of temperature, CO 2 and rainfall changes (Howden et al 1999b, c) or multiple probabilistic climate change scenarios (Luo et al 2005a(Luo et al , b, 2007. The general conclusion was that the likely impacts on wheat yield varied markedly among regions (Howden and Jones 2004) and specific scenarios considered.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the sensitivity of wheat growth and water balance to climate change in Southeast Australia

Wang

Luo

et al. 2009

Climatic Change

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A simulation study was carried out to assess the potential sensitivity of wheat growth and water balance components to likely climate change scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia. Specific processes considered include crop development, growth rate, grain yield, water use efficiency, evapotranspiration, runoff and deep drainage. Individual impacts of changes in temperature, rainfall and CO 2 concentration ([CO 2 ]) and the combined impacts of these three variables were analysed for 2050 ([CO 2 ] = 570 ppm, T +2.3 • C, P −7%) and 2070 ([CO 2 ] = 720 ppm, T +3.8 • C, P −10%) conditions. Two different rainfall change scenarios (changes in rainfall intensity or rainfall frequency) were used to modify historical rainfall data. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to simulate the growth and water balance processes for a 117 year period of baseline, 2050 and 2070 climatic conditions. The results showed that wheat yield reduction caused by 1 • C increase in temperature and 10% decrease in rainfall could be compensated by a 266 ppm increase in [CO 2 ] assuming no interactions between the individual effects. Temperature increase had little impact on long-term average water balance, while [CO 2 ] increase reduced evapotranspiration and increased deep drainage. Length of the growing season of wheat decreased 22 days in 2050 and 35 days in 2070 conditions as a consequence of 2.3 • C and 3.8 • C increase in temperature respectively. Yield in 80 Climatic Change (2009) 96:79-96 2050 was approximately 1% higher than the simulated baseline yield of 4,462 kg ha −1 , but it was 6% lower in 2070. An early maturing cultivar (Hartog) was more sensitive in terms of yield response to temperature increase, while a mid-maturing cultivar (Janz) was more sensitive to rainfall reduction. Janz could benefit more from increase in CO 2 concentration. Rainfall reduction across all rainfall events would have a greater negative impact on wheat yield and WUE than if only smaller rainfall events reduced in magnitude, even given the same total decrease in annual rainfall. The greater the reduction in rainfall, the larger was the difference. The increase in temperature increased the difference of impact between the two rainfall change scenarios while increase in [CO 2 ] reduced the difference.

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Global change impacts on wheat production along an environmental gradient in south Australia

Cited by 35 publications

References 9 publications

Potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on China’s rice yield and production

Potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on China’s rice yield and production

Adaptation to climate change of wheat growing in South Australia: Analysis of management and breeding strategies

Modelling the sensitivity of wheat growth and water balance to climate change in Southeast Australia

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