Potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on China’s rice yield and production

Abstract

ABSTRACT:We assessed the effect of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, as well as the direct fertilization effect of CO 2 , on rice yields and production in China. Our methodology coupled the regional climate model PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) with the CERES (Crop Environment Resources Synthesis) rice crop model to simulate current and future (2011-2100) rice yields and production under A2 and B2 climate change scenarios. The movement of rice-producing areas to more favorable climatic conditions was also considered. Results demonstrate that simulated future rice yields decrease without the CO 2 fertilization effect and increase in some areas and time slices with it. Yield variability measured by the coefficient of variation exhibits increases in both scenarios, with the largest increases under A2. Due to favorable climatic conditions, single rice cropping may expand further north in China, and double rice cropping may move to the northern portion of the Yangtze River basin. China's potential rice production is projected to increase in the future, due to the CO 2 fertilization effect and shifts in rice-producing areas. Three rice cultivation regions (Sichuan basin, Yangtze River basin, and Huang-huaihai plain) are identified as highly sensitive to future climate change if no adaptation measures are implemented, due to yield decreases and large increases in production variability.

Benefits of the development and dissemination of climate-smart rice: ex ante impact assessment of drought-tolerant rice in South Asia

“…Rice pollination lasts for 2 to 3 weeks, and during the pollination period, exposure to high temperature even for only a few hours can significantly decrease pollen viability and therefore drastically reduce rice yield. Aggarwal and Mall (2002), Wolfe et al (2008), Xiong et al (2009), Masutomi et al (2009), Pandey et al (2010, and Geethalakshmi et al (2011) clearly show that, in the absence of an effective adaptation strategy, an increase in average temperature due to global warming can lead to a considerable reduction in rice yield. Recently, there is clearer evidence that rising nighttime temperature is the major reason for hikes in global mean temperature since the middle of the twentieth century (Kukla and Karl 1993).…”

“…Out of the total of 896 million extremely poor people globally (those who live on less than USD 1.90 per day), 34.5 % of these people (309 million) live in South Asia (World Bank 2016), most of whom depend on agriculture, particularly rice cultivation, for their livelihood. Thus, the effects of climate change on rice farming can have significant negative impacts because of the socioeconomic importance of rice cultivation in South Asian culture, society, and the economy (e.g., Xiong et al 2009). …”

Use of partial least squares regression to identify factors controlling rice yield in Southern China

“…Rice yield is well recognized as being spatially variable and affected by various factors such as geographic location, climate change, soil properties, and fertilizer application (Li et al., ; Roel & Plant, ; Xiong, Conway, Lin, & Holman, ). Rice yield differs regionally as it is closely related to the geographic location (e.g., longitude and latitude; Ray et al., ).…”

Impact assessment of climate change on rice productivity in the Indochinese Peninsula using a regional‐scale crop model

“…Crop models are a widely used tool for assessing the impacts of climate change on crop yields, for example the CERES‐Rice model has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on rice (Amien et al ., ; Xiong et al ., ; Babel et al ., ). For most field‐based crop models, the spatial scale at which they work is smaller than the spatial scale of climate model outputs.…”

“…Sustaining and improving crop production is still a challenge for the countries in the Indochina peninsula, and this challenge maybe become more difficult following the adverse effect of predicted climate change and other severe environmental conditions. Crop models are a widely used tool for assessing the impacts of climate change on crop yields, for example the CERES-Rice model has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on rice (Amien et al, 1999;Xiong et al, 2009;Babel et al, 2011). For most field-based crop models, the spatial scale at which they work is smaller than the spatial scale of climate model outputs.…”