Global climate change stabilization regimes and Indian emission scenarios: Lessons for modeling of developing country transitions

Abstract

The global climate change stabilization regime will have a bearing on future emission pathways of each nation. Corresponding to a combination of stabilization targets and a future global socioeconomic and technology scenario, there are national emissions pathways that when aggregated would make the global regime most cost effective. The underlying hypothesis of this article is that the dis aggregated national (regional) scenarios, with explicit inclusion of developing country dynamics in scenario constructions and modeling frameworks, would enhance the qualitative and quantitative understanding of emissions pathways and mitigation strategies compared with the present exercises. The scenario construction for India pays specific attention to developing country dynamics, including multiple socioeconomic and demographic transitions. The article also delineates the lessons for modeling of these transitions in developing countries. The emissions pathways discussion, to begin with, considers lOO-year nonintervention scenarios. For the business-as-usual scenario, the optimal portfolio of mitigation interventions in India corresponding to 550ppm (by volume) global concentration stabilization is presented. In conclusion, the article asserts the need for realistic inclusion of developing country transitions in global scenarios and modeling exercises so as to improve the emissions assessments and delineation of mitigation strategies for stabilization.

Selecting Tools for Renewable Energy Analysis in Developing Countries: An Expanded Review

“…Bosello et al (2016) Common practices to analyze characteristics of developing countries are to use the characteristics directly, for example firewood use, as one of the variables in the model (Wianwiwat and Asafu-Adjaye, 2011) or to translate the characteristics into scenarios. Shukla et al (2006) convert transitions of the population, GDP, urbanization, land-use patterns, and structural changes in agriculture and livestock sectors into four emission scenarios. The scenarios are then simulated on Edmonds-Reilly-Barns (ERB) model for analyzing renewable energy growth in India.…”

“…Shukla et al (2006) discuss the informal economy issue in their analysis but they then translate it into a scenario rather than changing the structure of the energy model. Ignoring informal economy would have a significant adverse impact on the top-down approaches, which mainly use per GDP variables.…”

“…Therefore, several studies have attempted to review the most appropriate analytical tool for developing countries but their recommendations did not converge (Meier, 1984;Bhatia, 1987;Shukla, 1995;Pandey, 2002;Shukla et al, 2006;Hiremath et al, 2007;Urban et al, 2007;Van Ruijven et al, 2008b;Bhattacharyya and Timilsina, 2010a,b). Furthermore, most of them only discussed conventional energy models, and none of them examined the applicability of life cycle thinking, systems thinking, and agent-based modeling (ABM) methods.…”

“…In terms of the objective of the analysis, existing energy models aim for low carbon energy supply in developed countries while developing countries have additional concerns, such as energy access equity (Pandey, 2002;Shukla et al, 2006;Van Ruijven et al, 2008b). The issue of energy access calls for an analysis of decentralized energy systems, but most existing energy models do not integrate decentralized and centralized energy analyzes at the same time (Pandey, 2002;Hiremath et al, 2007).…”

“…Developing countries are also experiencing dynamic transitions, which are not entirely featured in existing energy models. These transitions include a shift from the traditional energy to modern energy system, rapid urbanization, industrialization, energy market transformation from monopoly to liberal market, and an increase of energy consumption intensity (Bhatia, 1987;Shukla, 1995;Pandey, 2002;Shukla et al, 2006;Urban et al, 2007;Van Ruijven et al, 2008b;Bhattacharyya and Timilsina, 2010a).…”