Global database on large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions (LaMEVE)

Crosweller, Helen Sian; Arora, Baneet; Brown, Sarah K.; Cottrell, Elizabeth; Deligne, Natalia I.; Guerrero, Natalie Ortiz; Hobbs, Laura; Kiyosugi, Koji; Loughlin, S. C.; Lowndes, Jonathan; Nayembil, Martin; Siebert, Lee; Sparks, R. S. J.; Takarada, Shinji; Venzke, Edward

doi:10.1186/2191-5040-1-4

Cited by 187 publications

(179 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…The observations are from the LaMEVE database, version 3.1 (Crosweller et al 2012;Brown et al 2014), downloaded October 2015. All eruptions in this database are treated as explosive, and the lower bound on large eruptions is M ≥ 4.0, according to the scale of Pyle (2000) and Mason et al (2004), or at least 10 8 tonnes of erupted mass.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In that paper, we showed that the global recording probability for large explosive eruptions of stratovolcanoes falls rapidly from 100% going back in time, based on the observations in the LaMEVE database (Crosweller et al 2012;Brown et al 2014). 'Large' was defined as having a recorded magnitude M ≥ 4.0, according to the scale of Pyle (2000) and Mason et al (2004); we denote this as 'M4+' below.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional and global under-recording of large explosive eruptions in the last 1000 years

2018

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Recording probabilities for large-magnitude (M ≥ 4) explosive eruptions are assessed regionally over the last 1000 years, using the LaMEVE database. Although the uncertainty is large, due to the scarcity of large eruptions, it does not swamp differences in recording probabilities across times and regions. Broadly, the results reflect the pattern of European colonial expansion. Iceland presents an interesting anomaly, with a declining recording probability-going back in time-conflicting with its long history of written records. However, this may be explained by the loss of records in the 17th and 18th centuries. Globally, we find that records of roughly 40% of large-magnitude explosive eruptions are missing. There is a marked difference in modern recording probabilities pre-and post-1980, which we attribute to changes in the way that the magnitude of large eruptions is assessed.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional and global under-recording of large explosive eruptions in the last 1000 years

2018

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“…Tanguy et al 1998;Witham 2005;Cashman and Giordano 2008), but from organizations which have included: the Brussels-based Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (or CRED); and re-insurance companies, in particular Munich Re (Auker et al 2013). Advances continue to be made in the second decade of the twenty-first century as witnessed by the new data-base of large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions (LaMEVE), which forms part of the larger Volcanic Global Risk Identification and Analysis Project (VOGRIPA) (Crosweller et al 2012), and the improved catalogue of fatalities caused by volcanic activity from 1600 to 2010 (Auker et al 2013).…”

Section: Communicating Scientific Information: Prehistoric and Histormentioning

confidence: 99%

Communicating Information on Eruptions and Their Impacts from the Earliest Times Until the Late Twentieth Century

Chester

Duncan

Coutinho

et al. 2017

Advances in Volcanology

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Volcanoes hold a fascination for human beings and, before they were recorded by literate observers, eruptions were portrayed in art, were recalled in legend and became incorporated into religious practices: being viewed as agents of punishment, bounty or intimidation depending upon their state of activity and the culture involved. In the Middle East the earliest record dates from the third millennium BCE and knowledge of volcanoes increased progressively over time. In the first century CE written records noted nine volcanoes in the Mediterranean region plus Mount Cameroon in West Africa, yet by 1380 AD the record only totalled 48, with volcanoes in Japan, Indonesia and Iceland being added. After this the list of continued to increase, but important regions such as New Zealand and Hawaii were only added during the last 200 years. Only from 1900 did the rate of growth decline significantly, but it is sobering to recall that in the twentieth century major eruptions have occurred from volcanoes that were considered inactive or extinct, examples including: Mount Lamington-Papua New Guinea, 1951; Mount Arenal-Costa Rica, 1968 and Nyos-Cameroon, 1986. Although there were instances where the human impact of historical eruptions were studied in detail, with

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“…However, as a volcanic crisis unfolds, additional information may become available-such as an increase in seismic activity for example. Many volcanologists would argue that this information suggests that there is an increased probability of an eruption-but a frequency-based analysis cannot incorporate this information as it generally (Crosweller et al 2012) and population density (green to red) requires higher levels of judgement, and belief-based probabilistic methods may be used (e.g. Bayesian methods, expert elicitation; Marzocchi et al 2007;Aspinall et al 2003;Newhall and Pallister 2014).…”

Section: Volcanic Risk Websmentioning

confidence: 99%

Imagining the Unimaginable: Communicating Extreme Volcanic Risk

Donovan

Oppenheimer

2016

Advances in Volcanology

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This chapter considers the challenges surrounding the management of extreme volcanic risk. We examine eruption scenarios based on past episodes and assess the key issues that might arise should similar events occur in the future. The nature of such eruptions will entail transboundary and multi-scalar hazards. In a globalised world, the geopolitical and societal issues that are likely to emerge cannot all be predicted, and communication technologies themselves are likely to be affected. We explore two aspects: communication prior to the eruption, and communication during the eruption. To the best of our knowledge, all large eruptions are presaged by sensible phenomena but the enduring challenge for volcanic hazard assessment and risk management will remain the uncertainty surrounding evaluations of the likelihood, timing, nature and magnitude of potentially damaging activity. At present, too, communication of volcanic risk beyond the borders of the country where the volcano is located is generally patchy and unsystematic in most parts of the world (with the exception of the threat of ash clouds to aviation). In the preparatory phase, it is also critical to establish robust communication strategies that are resilient during an eruption. Such strategies would be essential for communicating the availability of supplies, the extent and nature of damage, and the ongoing status of the eruption.

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Global database on large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions (LaMEVE)

Cited by 187 publications

References 12 publications

Regional and global under-recording of large explosive eruptions in the last 1000 years

Regional and global under-recording of large explosive eruptions in the last 1000 years

Communicating Information on Eruptions and Their Impacts from the Earliest Times Until the Late Twentieth Century

Imagining the Unimaginable: Communicating Extreme Volcanic Risk

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