Global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases 2005–2050 with abatement potentials and costs

Abstract

Abstract. This study uses the GAINS model framework to estimate current and future emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases), their abatement potentials, and costs for twenty source sectors and 162 countries and regions, which are aggregated to produce global estimates. Global F-gas (HFCs, PFCs, and SF 6 ) emissions are estimated at 0.7 Pg CO 2 eq. in 2005 with an expected increase to 3.7 Pg CO 2 eq. in 2050 if application of control technology remains at the current level. There are extensive opportunities to reduce emissions using existing technology and alternative substances with low global warming potential. Estimates show that it would be technically feasible to reduce cumulative F-gas emissions from 81 to 11 Pg CO 2 eq. between 2018 and 2050. A reduction in cumulative emissions to 23 Pg CO 2 eq. is estimated to be possible at a marginal abatement cost below 10 EUR t −1 CO 2 eq. We also find that future F-gas abatement is expected to become relatively more costly for developing than developed countries due to differences in the sector contribution to emissions and abatement potentials.

Assessment of Sectoral Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Potentials for 2030

“…All sectors present substantial emission reduction potentials, which add up to a total of 33 GtCO 2 e in 2030 (range: [30][31][32][33][34][35][36]. This sum does not include potentials of fairly new measures (such as direct capture of atmospheric CO 2 , decreasing food loss and waste, and biochar) because it is uncertain whether these could realise their estimated emission reduction potentials by 2030.…”

“…For energy sector, methane emissions were taken from Reference [34] and was updated to become compatible with WEO-2016 [35]. Emissions originating from fluorinated gases (HFCs, PFCs, and SF 6 ) were taken from Reference [36].…”

“…For non-CO 2 greenhouse gases, the largest reduction is from HFCs, which can be reduced by 1.5 GtCO 2 e in 2030 [36]. USEPA [38] estimates a reduction potential for other non-CO 2 GHG emissions of 0.2 GtCO 2 e in 2030, where 0.12 GtCO 2 e comes from nitric and adipic acid production and the rest is from reducing PFCs from primary aluminium production and SF 6 from electric power systems and magnesium production.…”

Particle emissions in Belarus and in the Nordic countries

“…The method is described more in detail in e.g. Klimont et.al 2002 andPurohit &Höglund-Isaksson 2017. When all the measures are applied, the resulting level of abatement is what is assumed in the MFR scenario. A marginal cost curve can thus be described as the most cost-effective path from the baseline scenario to the MFR scenario -or to a certain emission reduction level that policy-makers wish to achieve.…”

Inverse modelling of CF<sub>4</sub> and NF<sub>3</sub> emissions in East Asia

“…Most recently, AGAGE's 'Medusa' pre-concentration GC-MS (gas chromatography-mass spectrometry) system has been able measure a full suite of the long-lived halogenated GHGs (Arnold et al, 2012;Miller et al, 2008 Korea, eastern China, and surrounding countries (Fang et al, 2015;Kim et al, 2010;Li et al, 2011 areas. The technology for abating emissions of these gases from such discrete sources exists and could be used (Chang and Chang, 2006;Purohit and Höglund-Isaksson, 2017;Illuzzi and Thewissen, 2010;Yang et al, 2009;Raoux, 2007;Wangxing et al, 2016).…”