Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots

Byers, Edward; Gidden, Matthew; Leclère, David; Balkovič, Juraj; Burek, Peter; Ebi, Kristie L.; Greve, Peter; Grey, D. R.; Havlík, Petr; Hillers, Astrid; Johnson, Nils; Kahil, Taher; Krey, Volker; Langan, Simon; Nakicenovic, N; Novak, Robert J.; Obersteiner, Michael; Pachauri, Shonali; Palazzo, Amanda; Parkinson, Simon; Rao, Narasimha D.; Rogelj, Joeri; Satoh, Yusuke; Wada, Yoshihide; Willaarts, Bárbara; Riahi, Keywan

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabf45

Cited by 228 publications

(171 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…Our results are also consistent with Byers et al (2018) that analyzed distributions of a broader set of hazards and vulnerability indicators. They showed that global population exposure to multi-sector (water, energy, food and environment) risks approximately doubles between 1.5°C and 2°C warming.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Some studies have suggested that the frequencies of hot days will increase more rapidly in the poorest countries in the tropics than in countries in mid-tohigh-latitude regions (Mahlstein et al 2011, Harrington et al 2016, Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2018. It has been suggested that 1.5°C-2°C differences of increases in heatwave exposure (Russo et al 2019), high streamflow (Döll et al 2018) and multi-sector (water, energy, food and environment) risks (Byers et al 2018) are larger for low-income countries/populations than high-income countries/populations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change

Shiogama

Hasegawa

Fujimori

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Clarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2°C and 1.5°C global warming is important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyze large ensembles of 2°C and 1.5°C warming simulations. In the 2°C runs, we find substantial increases in extreme hot days, heavy rainfalls, high streamflow and labor capacity reduction related to heat stress. For example, about half of the world's population is projected to experience a present day 1-in-10 year hot day event every other year at 2°C warming. The regions with relatively large increases of these four hazard indicators coincide with countries characterized by small CO 2 emissions, low-income and high vulnerability. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C, is projected to lower increases in the four hazard indicators especially in those regions.

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Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change

Shiogama

Hasegawa

Fujimori

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…A small number have considered multiple impacts across sectors (e.g. Schleussner et al 2016, Arnell et al 2016b, Betts et al 2018, Byers et al 2018, O'Neill et al 2018. Studies have used different climate pathways, including RCP forcings and pathways consistent with 1.5°C and 2°C climate targets, and have used different sets of climate models to define climate scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The global and regional impacts of climate change under representative concentration pathway forcings and shared socioeconomic pathway socioeconomic scenarios

Arnell

Lowe

Bernie

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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This paper presents an evaluation of the global and regional consequences of climate change for heat extremes, water resources, river and coastal flooding, droughts, agriculture and energy use. It presents change in hazard and resource base under different rates of climate change (representative concentration pathways (RCP)), and socio-economic impacts are estimated for each combination of RCP and shared socioeconomic pathway. Uncertainty in the regional pattern of climate change is characterised by CMIP5 climate model projections. The analysis adopts a novel approach using relationships between level of warming and impact to rapidly estimate impacts under any climate forcing. The projections provided here can be used to inform assessments of the implications of climate change. At the global scale all the consequences of climate change considered here are adverse, with large increases under the highest rates of warming. Under the highest forcing the global average annual chance of a major heatwave increases from 5% now to 97% in 2100, the average proportion of time in drought increases from 7% to 27%, and the average chance of the current 50 year flood increases from 2% to 7%. The socio-economic impacts of these climate changes are determined by socio-economic scenario. There is variability in impact across regions, reflecting variability in projected changes in precipitation and temperature. The range in the estimated impacts can be large, due to uncertainty in future emissions and future socio-economic conditions and scientific uncertainty in how climate changes in response to future emissions. For the temperature-based indicators, the largest source of scientific uncertainty is in the estimated magnitude of equilibrium climate sensitivity, but for the indicators determined by precipitation the largest source is in the estimated spatial and seasonal pattern of changes in precipitation. By 2100, the range across socioeconomic scenario is often greater than the range across the forcing levels.

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“…Most model inputs for MARINA 1.0 for human activities for the selected scenarios were available from the models and databases we used in this study ( Figure B.1 in Appendix B). For data on synthetic fertilizers, agricultural N 2 fixation and N in harvested crops we used projections for SSP1-RCP4.5, SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP3-RCP4.5, obtained by combining the land use projections from the GLOBIOM model (Havlík et al, 2014) and the nitrogen fluxes estimations from the EPIC model (Balkovič et al, 2014) as done in Byers et al (2018) (see Appendix C for details). We did this because the projections from the GLOBIOM and EPIC models are not available for the selected scenarios.…”

Section: Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing nitrogen export to sea: A scenario analysis for the Indus River

Wang

Tang

Burek

et al. 2019

Science of The Total Environment

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Journal Pre-proof J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f 2 AbstractThe Indus River Basin faces severe water quality degradation because of nutrient enrichment from human activities. Excessive nutrients in tributaries are transported to the river mouth, causing coastal eutrophication. This situation may worsen in the future because of population growth, economic development, and climate change. This study aims at a better understanding of the magnitude and sources of current (2010) and future (2050) river export of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) by the Indus River at the sub-basin scale. To do this, we implemented the MARINA 1.0 model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs).The model inputs for human activities (e.g., agriculture, land use) were mainly from the GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model) and EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Model) models. Model inputs for hydrology were from the Community WATer Model (CWATM). For 2050, three scenarios combining Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs 1, 2 and 3) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 6.0) were selected. A novelty of this study is the sub-basin analysis of future N export by the Indus River for SSPs and RCPs. Result shows that river export of TDN by the Indus River will increase by a factor of 1.6 -2 between 2010 and 2050 under the three scenarios. More than 90% of the dissolved N exported by the Indus River is from midstream sub-basins. Human waste is expected to be the major source, and contributes by 66-70% to river export of TDN in 2050 depending on the scenarios. Another important source is agriculture, which contributes by 21-29% to dissolved inorganic N export in 2050. Thus a combined reduction in both diffuse and point sources in the midstream sub-basins can be effective to reduce coastal water pollution by nutrients at the river mouth of Indus. Journal Pre-proof J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f 3 Highlights: Dissolved N export to sea by the Indus River will likely increase in the future  More than 90% of dissolved N exported by Indus is from midstream sub-basins  Over two-thirds of dissolved N export is from human waste in 2050  Around one-third of dissolved inorganic N export is from agriculture in 2050  Improved nutrient management for both diffuse and point sources is needed Journal Pre-proof 2008). Water stress caused by high water demand and nutrient pollution in the Indus basin may further increase in the future (Hashmi et al., 2009; WWF, 2007).However, not many studies exist that analyze future nutrient transport from land to the Indus and to the sea as affected by human activities and climate change (Amin et al., 2017;Mayorga et al., 2010;Seitzinger et al., 2010). Moreover, these few studies that quantify future river export of nutrients from different sources (e.g., agriculture, human waste), do not account for spatial variability within the basin. A better quantification of the relative contributions of sub-basins will increase our understanding of the underlying spatial patterns Journal Pre-proof J o u ...

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Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots

Cited by 228 publications

References 74 publications

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change

The global and regional impacts of climate change under representative concentration pathway forcings and shared socioeconomic pathway socioeconomic scenarios

Increasing nitrogen export to sea: A scenario analysis for the Indus River

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