2019
DOI: 10.31223/osf.io/8527z
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Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the EECO, PETM and latest Paleocene

Abstract: Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing during the geological record. GMST estimates from the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (~57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (~9 to 23°C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Here, we develop a multi-method experime… Show more

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Cited by 9 publications
(11 citation statements)
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“…Study of pre‐Quaternary warm climates using geological records and computer simulations is an important avenue for understanding the environmental changes humanity faces in our warming future. Focus has often been on the (1) strong greenhouse climate of the early Eocene (∼50 Ma) when atmospheric concentration of CO 2 ( p CO 2 ) was highly elevated (>1,000 ppm) and global mean temperatures ∼13°C warmer than today (Burke et al., 2018; Caballero & Huber, 2013; Inglis et al., 2020), and (2) the chronologically closer mid Pliocene Warm Period (PWP) (3.3–3 Ma), characterized by now sub‐modern p CO 2 (∼400 ppm), with average global warming of 2°C–3°C (Burke et al., 2018; Pagani et al., 2010). Different continental positions, as well as vegetation and fauna, make the much older Eocene an imperfect future analog, while p CO 2 of the mid Pliocene has already been surpassed ( p CO 2 measured at Mona Loa reached 416 ppm at time of writing, see: https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2), with PWP‐like climates predicted as soon as 2030 (Burke et al., 2018).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Study of pre‐Quaternary warm climates using geological records and computer simulations is an important avenue for understanding the environmental changes humanity faces in our warming future. Focus has often been on the (1) strong greenhouse climate of the early Eocene (∼50 Ma) when atmospheric concentration of CO 2 ( p CO 2 ) was highly elevated (>1,000 ppm) and global mean temperatures ∼13°C warmer than today (Burke et al., 2018; Caballero & Huber, 2013; Inglis et al., 2020), and (2) the chronologically closer mid Pliocene Warm Period (PWP) (3.3–3 Ma), characterized by now sub‐modern p CO 2 (∼400 ppm), with average global warming of 2°C–3°C (Burke et al., 2018; Pagani et al., 2010). Different continental positions, as well as vegetation and fauna, make the much older Eocene an imperfect future analog, while p CO 2 of the mid Pliocene has already been surpassed ( p CO 2 measured at Mona Loa reached 416 ppm at time of writing, see: https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2), with PWP‐like climates predicted as soon as 2030 (Burke et al., 2018).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We suggest that the closure/opening of the English Channel during the middle Eocene partially influenced the ocean temperatures and salinities recorded in the Hampshire Basin. In particular, we argue that in the lower part of the section the water temperature was mitigated by the intermittent introduction of colder North Sea water within the basin, explaining the cool and less saline waters recorded, in average comparable to the Norwegian‐Greenland Sea (Inglis et al., 2015, 2020). This was reversed upward when total or partial closure of the English Channel led to an increase of regional water temperatures and salinity, probably also influenced by increased evaporation, closer to the Atlantic sites (Cramwinckel et al., 2020).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 82%
“…Pre‐MECO SSTs at Site 647 are similar to those from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean and a few degrees lower than those from the (sub)tropical South Atlantic (Boscolo‐Galazzo et al, 2014; Cramwinckel et al, 2018) (Figure 9). They are distinctly higher than those from the Southwest Pacific Ocean (Bijl et al, 2010) and Norwegian‐Greenland Sea (Inglis et al, 2015, 2020; Liu et al, 2009). SSTs from the early‐middle (~48 Ma) and middle (~46 Ma) Eocene Arctic Ocean (~8–14°C) (Brinkhuis et al, 2006; Sangiorgi et al, 2008) are also much lower than the middle Eocene Labrador Sea, although coeval estimates are not available.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 84%
“…Compilation of middle Eocene TEX 86 ‐based sea surface temperatures. Site 647 (red) data plotted together with published TEX 86 data from the Atlantic basin: ODP Site 913, Norwegian‐Greenland Sea (gray) (Inglis et al, 2015, 2020; Liu et al, 2009); Kysing‐4 borehole, North Sea Basin (light blue) (Śliwińska et al, 2019); ODP Site 925, equatorial Atlantic Ocean (pink) (Liu et al, 2009); ODP Site 959, equatorial Atlantic Ocean (orange) (Cramwinckel et al, 2018); Site 1263, subtropical South Atlantic Ocean (purple) (Boscolo‐Galazzo et al, 2014); and South Dover Bridge, Atlantic coastal plain (blue) (Inglis et al, 2015). TEX 86 record from Site 1172 (green) (Bijl et al, 2009, 2010) added as a high southern latitude end‐member.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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