Global Migration Modelling: A Review of Key Policy Needs and Research Centres

Alan Wilson – contributions to research on population and migration

“…It was found necessary to allow for a capital city effect, where international migration is more concentrated on the capital than is internal migration. Dennett and Mateos (2016) provide an interesting peek at the results of the work. The field of migration estimation has moved on since their paper: for example, the MIMOSA estimates of EU inter-country flows were updated in Raymer et al (2013) in the IMEM project which used a Bayesian statistical framework in which prior beliefs are confronted with available data and in which prediction intervals are derived.…”

“…How model choices as well as assumptions change future populations Wilson, T. (2015) Evaluation of simple models for small area forecasts in a controlled data/methods "laboratory" Wilson, T. (2018) Evaluation of simple methods for regional mortality forecasts in a controlled data/methods "laboratory" Rees et al (2018) Classifies different methods of comparing projections, identifying why sensitivity testing is best Wilson (2011Wilson ( , 2013Wilson ( , 2016) Adapts Wilson SIM models to estimate inter-regional migration between EU NUTS 2 regions as used in DEMIFER project to achieve consistency Raymer et al (2013) Adds Bayesian statistical inference to MIMOSA methods and computes uncertainty bounds for measures Abel (2013) Develops a new method for estimating bi-lateral migration flows using migrant stock data for destinations by country of birth Abel and Sander (2014) Explains the Abel 2013 method and describes flows using new graphical methods, showing global migration flows volumes are growing with population but rates are not increasing Dennett (2016) Investigates errors in Abel estimates and proposed plausible methods for correction Dennett and Mateos (2016) Reviews policy work on international migration Abel (2018) Extends the time series of global migration flows from 1960 to 2015 and adds gender Azose and Raftery (2018) Extends the Abel model to estimate return and repeat migration and confidence intervals using Bayesian statistical methods…”

“…Topic/example paper Description A Migration estimation Dennett and Rees (2010) Develops integrated estimates of internal migration between NUTS2 regions in the UK (DEMIFER project) Raymer, de Beer, and van der Erf (2011) Develops methods of estimating migration between EU countries through quality grading and modelling (MIMOSA project) Dennett and Wilson (2011 Adapts Wilson SIM models to estimate inter-regional migration between EU NUTS 2 regions as used in DEMIFER project to achieve consistency Raymer et al (2013) Adds Bayesian statistical inference to MIMOSA methods and computes uncertainty bounds for measures Abel (2013) Develops a new method for estimating bi-lateral migration flows using migrant stock data for destinations by country of birth Abel and Sander (2014) Explains the Abel 2013 method and describes flows using new graphical methods, showing global migration flows volumes are growing with population but rates are not increasing Dennett (2016) Investigates errors in Abel estimates and proposed plausible methods for correction Dennett and Mateos (2016) Reviews policy work on international migration Abel (2018) Extends the time series of global migration flows from 1960 to 2015 and adds gender Azose and Raftery (2018) Extends the Abel model to estimate return and repeat migration and confidence intervals using Bayesian statistical methods B Migration Heterogeneity Sander, Abel, and Riosmena (2014) Describes how educational attainment is estimated for bi-lateral international migration flows in WIC model Bernard and Bell (2018) Establishes that education has a significant effect on rates of internal migration, after controlling for other factors Darlington-Pollock, Lomax, and Norman (2018) Analyses differences in internal migration rates over different distance bands in the UK by ethnicity, age and nativity C Migration Measurement Ledent (1980) Shows that return migration to birthplace influences migration transitions and alters projections and multi-regional life tables Bell et al (2015) Summary of the data and methods used to harmonize internal migration data across countries (IMAGE project) Stillwell et al (2016) Demonstrates the relationship of migration and distance (IMAGE project) Rees et al (2017) Results for impact measures of migration across countries (IMAGE project) Dyrting (2018) Proposes a method to translate between one-year and five-migration probabilities D Modelling and Projecting Migration Flows Plane (1993) Demonstrates that a constant assumption leads to implausible regional population distribution Fotheringham et al (2004) Uses a combined production and distribution model to predict internal migration flows for the UK using numerous determinants…”