Global precipitation-related extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming targets: Projection and uncertainty assessment based on the CESM-LWR experiment

Ju, Jiali; Wu, Chuanhao; Yeh, Pat J.‐F.; Dai, Heng; Hu, Bill X.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105868

Cited by 21 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 86 publications

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“…Herold et al (2021) reported a doubling in the frequency of current 1 in 20 AEP events by 2060-2079. Projected increases are smaller for multi-day rainfall, with a median increase in Rx5D of 10% (~3%/K) reported inSillmann et al (2013), 4%/K inJu et al (2021), and no significant change inChen et al (2014). While fewer studies have assessed changes to less frequent rainfall extremes, these are typically larger than the increases projected for annual maxima.…”

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confidence: 93%

A systematic review of climate change science relevant to Australian design flood estimation

Wasko,

Westra,

Nathan

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. In response to flood risk, design flood estimation is a cornerstone of planning, infrastructure design, setting of insurance premiums and emergency response planning. Under stationary assumptions, flood guidance and the methods used in design flood estimation are firmly established in practice and mature in their theoretical foundations, but under climate change, guidance is still in its infancy. Human-caused climate change is influencing factors that contribute to flood risk such as rainfall extremes and soil moisture, and that there is a need for updated flood guidance. However, a barrier to updating flood guidance is the translation of the science into practical application. For example, most science focuses on examining trends in annual maximum flood events, or the application of non-stationary flood frequency analysis. Although this science is valuable, in practice design flood estimation focuses on exceedance probabilities much rarer than annual maximum events, such as the 1 % annual exceedance probability event or even rarer, using rainfall-based procedures, at locations where there are little to no observations of streamflow. Here, we perform a systematic review to summarise the state-of-the-art understanding of the impact of climate change on design flood estimation in the Australian context, while also drawing on international literature. In addition, a meta-analysis, whereby results from multiple studies are combined, is conducted for extreme rainfall to provide quantitative estimates of possible future changes. This information is described in the context of contemporary design flood estimation practice, to facilitate the inclusion of climate science into design flood estimation practice.

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confidence: 93%

A systematic review of climate change science relevant to Australian design flood estimation

Wasko,

Westra,

Nathan

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Compared with other types of disasters, drought is unpredictable, difficult to defend, and has a wide range of influencing characteristics [5,[9][10][11][12]. Therefore, drought has more serious uncertainty [13], destructiveness [5], and crypticity [14] than other types of disasters in the natural environment. Moreover, drought also has an important impact on the ecological environment at basin scales [2,12,15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The SLRB (Songhua and Liaohe River Basin), HARB (Haihe River Basin), HURB (Huaihe River Basin), YRB (Yellow River Basin), YARB (Yangtze River Basin), PRB (Pearl River Basin), SEB (Southeast Basin), SWB (Southwest Basin), and CB (Continental Basin) were analyzed in this study. Meanwhile, the simulated and observed datasets have also been widely used in the calculation of drought indices in many studies [9,13,23,25,26]. For example, Vicente-Serrano et al [22] used the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) precipitation and potential evapotranspiration dataset to compute the global SPEI; Peel et al [27] also used the CRU precipitation and temperature dataset to divide global climate regions; Zhang et al [28] also used the CRU precipitation and potential evapotranspiration dataset to compute the Palmer drought severity index in China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating Drought Propagation Time, Relationship, and Drivers in Perennial River Basins of China

Zhao

et al. 2022

Water

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Drought is a multifaceted natural disaster that can impact the ecological environment, crop yield, and social economy through the hydrological cycle process. Meteorological drought occurs first, which then propagates to other forms. This study presents the propagation characteristics of meteorological to hydrological drought in different river basins of China. The main drivers of drought propagation are also quantitatively analyzed in this study. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) were used to describe meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively. The Songhua and Liaohe River Basin (SLRB), Haihe River Basin (HARB), Huaihe River Basin (HURB), Yellow River Basin (YRB), Yangtze River Basin (YARB), Pearl River Basin (PRB), Southeast Basin (SEB), Southwest Basin (SWB), and Continental Basin (CB) were analyzed in this study. The precipitation and runoff datasets were used to compute the SPI and SRI, respectively. The results showed that the drought propagation time was mainly 1–3 months in China. In general, drought propagation had a stronger relationship in the central and eastern river basins of China than in the western river basins (SWB and CB). Spring and winter had a weaker drought propagation relationship than autumn and winter. Drought propagation was driven by precipitation in the HURB, YARB, SEB, and PRB; soil moisture and precipitation were drivers in the HARB and YRB; moreover, soil moisture and potential evapotranspiration were drivers in the SLRB and CB. This study improves the understanding of the characteristics and drivers of drought propagation in droughts in river basins. Therefore, this study might provide a reference to reveal the mechanism of drought.

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“…In places located at mid-to-high latitudes, extreme precipitation increases significantly [4]. Since 1950, the number of extreme precipitation events has increased in more regions than decreased, but the trends are strongly regional and subregional [5]. Previous studies have shown that anthropogenic climate forcing has led to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation worldwide, with that in the temperate regions increasing consistently, along with large inter-annual variation in the tropical regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population and GDP Exposure to Extreme Precipitation Events on Loess Plateau under the 1.5 °C Global Warming Level

Han

et al. 2022

Atmosphere

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To mitigate the adverse effects of climate warming, the Paris Agreement proposed the goal to reduce global warming up to an increase of 1.5 °C above the preindustrial level. Study of the population and GDP exposure to precipitation extreme events under the 1.5 °C warming target is fundamental for disaster risk mitigation and adaptation on the Loess Plateau. This study projected the population and GDP exposure to extreme precipitation events under the 1.5 °C global warming level on the Loess Plateau using daily precipitation data from CMIP6 outputs and population and GDP data under a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1(SSP1) 2.6 scenario. The population and GDP exposure were evaluated by combing the frequency and the areal coverage of the extreme precipitation events. Results show that population and GDP exposure to extreme precipitation events on the Loess Plateau will increase under the 1.5 °C global warming level. The population exposure was projected from 1.32 × 106 to 2.68 × 106 person-year. The population exposure of eastern and southern Loess Plateau is significantly higher than that of the northern region. The annual exposure of GDP ranges from USD 2.9 to 12.3 billion, and the regions with the highest GDP exposure are Zhengzhou, Xi’an, Taiyuan, and Lanzhou. Our results reveal that limiting the increase of global mean temperature to 1.5 °C warming level is of great significance to reduce the social and economic exposure to extreme precipitation events on the Loess Plateau.

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Global precipitation-related extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming targets: Projection and uncertainty assessment based on the CESM-LWR experiment

Cited by 21 publications

References 86 publications

A systematic review of climate change science relevant to Australian design flood estimation

A systematic review of climate change science relevant to Australian design flood estimation

Investigating Drought Propagation Time, Relationship, and Drivers in Perennial River Basins of China

Population and GDP Exposure to Extreme Precipitation Events on Loess Plateau under the 1.5 °C Global Warming Level

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