Global scenarios of household access to modern energy services under climate mitigation policy

Abstract

Emission reduction scenarios to meet various climate change mitigation policy goals often do not explore the differential impact of alternative pathways on access to energy for different economic strata of society across countries. Here we show that even under optimistic socioeconomic growth scenarios, inequalities in use of modern energy in homes could persist. We find that though access improves in high growth scenarios, over 10% of populations in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia could lack access to energy services for thermal comfort, food preparation and conservation, and cleaning in 2050. Ambitious climate mitigation scenarios do not significantly alter household access to energy services in the Global South, and only affect gas consumption in high-income regions. Our work suggests that efforts to meet climate policy goals are not at odds with progress towards universal access to modern energy services in the Global South, however, directed policy will be needed to meet access goals. MainAccess to modern, reliable, and affordable energy services is a prerequisite for development and providing a decent quality of life for all of humanity. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7, explicitly targets universal access to modern energy services, including a connection to electricity and modern cooking energy services by 2030. Several analyses of the existing status of access to modern energy services and scenarios of extending access universally, either implicitly or explicitly, to meet the SDG targets already exist 1-7 . However, existing studies focus largely on technologies and investments needed to achieve access goals and specific benefits that can ensue from gaining access. Less is understood of how preferences for energy services shift and demands change across diverse populations as modern forms of energy become more easily accessible and affordable over time. Here, we present a highly granular bottom-up residential appliance choice and energy demand model that we apply globally to assess how access to energy services in homes will change under scenarios of socio-economic growth and under policy scenarios that meet climate change mitigation goals. As currently defined, achieving SDG7 does not imply regular use or access to all the services needed for decent living. There are vast differences today in how much energy people use at home 8,9 . While many enjoy the benefits of a multitude of appliances that provide comfort and convenience and meet a diverse set of service needs, others still lack access to even basic electric lighting and thermal comfort in their homes 10,11 . In many developing and emerging countries, much of the population even lacks access to reliable electricity and clean cooking services [12][13][14] . Understanding how household energy

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