Global thyroid cancer incidence trend and age-period-cohort model analysis based on Global Burden of Disease Study from 1990 to 2019

Abstract

BackgroundIn view of the rapid increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) and the spread of overdiagnosis around the world, the quantitative evaluation of the effect of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence of TC, and the analysis of the role of different factors in the incidence trend can provide scientific basis and data support for the national health departments to formulate reasonable prevention and treatment policies.MethodsThe study collated the global burden disease study data of TC incidence from 1990 to 2019, and used APC model to analyze the contribution of age, period and birth cohort to the incidence trend of TC.ResultsThere was an obvious unfavorable upward trend in terms of age and cohort effect all over the world. Since 2007, the growth rate of risk slowed down and the risk in female even decreased since 2012, which mainly contributed to the developed countries. In all SDI countries, 2002 is the dividing point of risk between male and female. In 2019, The global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of TC in the 5 SDI countries all showed a significant upward trend, with the largest upward trend in the middle SDI countries.ConclusionThe trend of rapid increase in the incidence of TC has begun to slow down, but the global incidence of TC has obvious gender and regional/national heterogeneity. Policy makers should tailor specific local strategies to the risk factors of each country to further reduce the burden of TC.

Study on the burden of digestive diseases among Chinese residents in the 21st century

“…Simultaneously, the population data was divided into four cycle groups at 5-year intervals spanning from 2000 to 2020. Our analysis was conducted using the Age-Period-Cohort Web Tool ( 21 ).…”

Thyroid cancer trends in China and its comparative analysis with G20 countries: Projections for 2020–2040

“…Previous studies have primarily focused on the global trends of thyroid cancer [7,9], as well as specific analyses pertaining to China [8,10,11]. Additionally, comparative studies have been conducted to analyse thyroid cancer trend across various sociodemographic index (SDI) regions, contrasting China with the United States, within the European Union, and among a selection of ten countries [12][13][14][15]. Presently, there is a limited number of studies that compare the trends of thyroid cancer in China with those in other countries.…”