Global warming and the hydrologic cycle

Loáiciga, Hugo A.; Valdés, Juan B.; Vogel, Richard M.; Garvey, Jeff; Schwarz, Harry E.

doi:10.1016/0022-1694(95)02753-x

Cited by 239 publications

(151 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Climate change is of particular concern in the CORB due both to the sensitivity of the snow accumulation processes that dominate runoff generation within the basin, and the basin's high water demand relative to supply (Loaiciga, 1996). General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the atmosphere predict increases in global mean annual air temperature between 1.4 and 5.8 • C over the next century (IPCC, 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin

et al. 2004

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Abstract. The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin are assessed by comparing simulated hydrologic and water resources scenarios derived from downscaled climate simulations of the U.S. Department of Energy/National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (PCM) to scenarios driven by observed historical climate. PCM climate scenarios include an ensemble of three 105-year future climate simulations based on projected 'business-as-usual' (BAU) greenhouse gas emissions and a control climate simulation based on static 1995 greenhouse gas concentrations. Downscaled transient temperature and precipitation sequences were extracted from PCM simulations, and were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model to produce corresponding streamflow sequences. Results for the BAU scenarios were summarized into Periods 1, 2, and 3 (2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2098). Average annual temperature changes for the Colorado River basin were 0.5 • C warmer for control climate, and 1.0, 1.7, and 2.4 • C warmer for Periods 1-3, respectively, relative to the historical climate. Basin-average annual precipitation for the control climate was slightly (1%) less than for observed historical climate, and 3, 6, and 3% less for future Periods 1-3, respectively. Annual runoff in the control run was about 10% lower than for simulated historical conditions, and 14, 18, and 17% less for Periods 1-3, respectively. Analysis of water management operations using a water management model driven by simulated streamflows showed that streamflows associated with control and future BAU climates would significantly degrade the performance of the water resources system relative to historical conditions, with average total basin storage reduced by 7% for the control climate and 36, 32 and 40% for Periods 1-3, respectively. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam to the Lower Basin (mandated by the Colorado River Compact) were met in 80% of years for the control climate simulation (versus 92% in the historical climate simulation), and only in 59-75% of years for the future climate runs. Annual hydropower output was also significantly reduced for the control and future climate simulations. The high sensitivity of reservoir system performance for future climate is a reflection of the fragile equilibrium that now exists in operation of the system, with system demands only slightly less than long-term mean annual inflow.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin

et al. 2004

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“…The hydrologic implications of climate change are a global concern (Milly et al, 2005), but the CRB is especially vulnerable due to the sensitivity of discharge to precipitation and temperature changes (both of which affect snow accumulation and melt patterns as well as evapotranspiration), effects which are exacerbated by the semi-arid nature of the 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Annual Flow (BCM) basin (Loaiciga, 1996). Global General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the coupled land-ocean-atmosphere system project an increase in global mean surface air temperature between 1.8 • C and 5.4 • C between 1990 and 2100 yet disagree upon the tendency and seasonality of precipitation changes (IPCC, 2001) and their spatial distribution regionally.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin

Christensen

Lettenmaier

2007

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

498

311

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Abstract. Implications of 21st century climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin were assessed using a multimodel ensemble approach in which downscaled and bias corrected output from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to drive macroscale hydrology and water resources models. Downscaled climate scenarios (ensembles) were used as forcings to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model, which in turn forced the Colorado River Reservoir Model (CRMM). Ensembles of downscaled precipitation and temperature, and derived streamflows and reservoir system performance were assessed through comparison with current climate simulations for the 1950-1999 historical period. For each of the 11 GCMs, two emissions scenarios (IPCC SRES A2 and B1, corresponding to relatively unconstrained growth in emissions, and elimination of global emissions increases by 2100) were represented. Results for the A2 and B1 climate scenarios were divided into three periods: 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099. The mean temperature change averaged over the 11 ensembles for the Colorado basin for the A2 emission scenario ranged from 1.2 to 4.4 • C for periods 1-3, and for the B1 scenario from 1.3 to 2.7 • C. Precipitation changes were modest, with ensemble mean changes ranging from −1 to −2% for the A2 scenario, and from +1 to −1% for the B1 scenario. An analysis of seasonal precipitation patterns showed that most GCMs had modest reductions in summer precipitation and increases in winter precipitation. Derived April 1 snow water equivalent declined for all ensemble members and time periods, with maximum (ensemble mean) reductions of 38% for the A2 scenario in period 3. Runoff changes were mostly the result of a dominance of increased evapotranspiration over the seasonal precipitation shifts, with ensemble mean runoff changes of −1, −6, and Correspondence to: D. P. Lettenmaier (dennisl@u.washington.edu) −11% for the A2 ensembles, and 0, −7, and −8% for the B1 ensembles. These hydrological changes were reflected in reservoir system performance. Average total basin reservoir storage and average hydropower production generally declined, however there was a large range across the ensembles. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam to the Lower Basin were reduced for all periods and both emissions scenarios in the ensemble mean. The fraction of years in which shortages occurred increased by approximately 20% by period 3 for both emissions scenarios.

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“…The primary challenge is the difference in scale between the large (continental) scale of GCMs and the local scale of groundwater or surface-water models, requiring daily data and spatial resolution of a few square kilometers (Bouraoui et al 1999;Loaiciga et al 1996).…”

Section: Downscalingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The complexity of approaches for obtaining the climate data series appears to have increased in recent years, ranging from the use of global averages (Loaiciga et al 1996;Zektser and Loaiciga 1993) to the use of regional "bulk" projections (Allen et al 2004;Brouyere et al 2004;Vaccaro 1992;Yusoff et al 2002) to the direct application of downscaled climate data (Jyrkama and Sykes 2007;Scibek and Allen 2006b;Scibek et al 2007;Serrat-Capdevila et al 2007;Toews and Allen 2009) to the use of regional climate models (Rivard et al 2008;van Roosmalen et al 2007van Roosmalen et al , 2009). Some of the early efforts to assess potential hydrologic impacts were reviewed by Gleik (1986).…”

Section: Downscalingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change, including anthropogenic-global warming and natural climate variability, can affect the quantity and quality of various components in the global hydrologic cycle in the space, time, and frequency domains (Holman 2006;IPCC 2007b;Loaiciga et al 1996;Milly et al 2005;Sharif and Singh 1999).…”

Section: An Holistic View Of Groundwater Hydrology: Selected Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Linking Climate Change and Groundwater

Green

2016

Integrated Groundwater Management

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Projected global change includes groundwater systems, which are linked with changes in climate over space and time. Consequently, global change affects key aspects of subsurface hydrology (including soil water, deeper vadose zone water, and unconfined and confined aquifer waters), surface-groundwater interactions, and water quality. Research and publications addressing projected climate effects on subsurface water are catching up with surface water studies. Even so, technological advances, new insights and understanding are needed regarding terrestrial-subsurface systems, biophysical process interactions, and feedbacks to atmospheric processes. Importantly, groundwater resources need to be assessed in the context of atmospheric CO 2 enrichment, warming trends and associated changes in intensities and frequencies of wet and dry periods, even though projections in space and time are uncertain. Potential feedbacks of groundwater on the global climate system are largely unknown, but may be stronger than previously assumed. Groundwater has been depleted in many regions, but management of subsurface storage remains an important option to meet the combined demands of agriculture, industry (particularly the energy sector), municipal and domestic water supply, and ecosystems. In many regions, groundwater is central to the water-food-energy-climate nexus. Strategic adaptation to global change must include flexible, integrated groundwater management over many decades. Adaptation itself must be adaptive over time. Further research is needed to improve our understanding of climate and groundwater interactions and to guide integrated groundwater management.

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Global warming and the hydrologic cycle

Cited by 239 publications

References 60 publications

The Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin

The Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin

A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin

Linking Climate Change and Groundwater

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