Global warming will affect the maximum potential abundance of boreal plant species

Villén‐Peréz, Sara; Heikkinen, Juha; Salemaa, Maija; Mäkipää, Raisa

doi:10.1111/ecog.04720

Cited by 35 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…It has been predicted that species with higher temperature preferences will shift northwards in the boreal region due to climate warming (Villén‐Peréz et al, 2020). While this might be true at large spatial and temporal scales, we show that forest structure plays an important role for changes in forest understorey communities on short to intermediate time‐scales.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in forest structure drive temperature preferences of boreal understorey plant communities

et al. 2021

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in forest structure drive temperature preferences of boreal understorey plant communities

et al. 2021

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“…Temperature sum has been widely used in studies of growth and abundance of plants (e.g. Villen‐Perez et al., 2020). The studied lichens have optimum photosynthesis at 5–25°C (Coxson & Coyle, 2003).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Macroclimate drives growth of hair lichens in boreal forest canopies

et al. 2020

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Epiphytic lichens are important biodiversity components of forest canopies world‐wide, significantly contributing to ecosystem function. The RGR, a measure of fitness, drives population dynamics and shapes lichens’ large‐scale distributions. In a climate change scenario, we need to know how external (macro‐ and microclimate, and nitrogen deposition) and internal factors (cortical pigments, chlorophyll and specimen size) affect RGR in these ecologically important canopy organisms. We used dominant pendulous hair lichens widely distributed across the boreal biome to test the hypothesis that precipitation drives RGR of pale (Alectoria sarmentosa, Usnea dasopoga) and dark species Bryoria fuscescens differently across a large‐scale gradient from continental to oceanic climates (precipitation: 450–2,600 mm) in Scandinavia (60–64°N, 5–19°E). After transplanting lichens to lower branches of Picea abies in nine boreal forest sites for 1 year, we used linear mixed effects models to analyse how total precipitation, rainfall, number of days with rain, temperature sum, nitrogen deposition, light, chlorophyll a (an indicator of photosynthetic capacity) and size influenced their RGR. RGR was highest in the pale species (Alectoria and Usnea) and increased with amount and frequency of precipitation, with >3 times higher RGR in the wettest compared to the driest site. The number of days with rain was a better predictor of RGR than total precipitation or rain. By contrast, RGR of the dark Bryoria weakly increased with precipitation. RGR in all species increased with light and decreased with size. Chlorophyll a concentration, boosted by moderate nitrogen deposition, increased RGR of all species. In conclusion, rainfall likely drives the distribution of the pale species due to their higher RGR and abundance in wet climates but cannot explain why Bryoria dominates drier inland forests. Our results highlight that the functional links between rainfall and RGR depends on both colour of the lichens (pale vs. dark pigments) and water storage traits. Synthesis. Our findings may explain the global, regional and local distribution patterns of hair lichens and help us to predict how environmental hazards such as climate change and forestry influence these important boreal canopy components.

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“…Hence, although abiotic conditions change, associated changes in cover and occurrence of plants likely include time lags, that is, integrating effects over a longer time period than the studied 10-year period. For instance, major distributional and abundance changes in Finnish ground vegetation are predicted up to mid-late 21st century due to increased temperature [9], and hence highlight trends over longer time periods. When evaluating potential factors behind the observed changes, this implies that increasing stand age and changes in climate and nitrogen deposition occur in parallel time scales, which might require several decades before fully manifested.…”

Section: Time Lags In Responsesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These changes are well-studied in relation to vegetation succession following both natural disturbances and forest management [3][4][5][6], with plant species following relatively predictable change from shade intolerant to more shade tolerant species. In addition to succession, vegetation change is also governed by climate as well as other biotic and abiotic factors, and in the boreal forest is particularly related to nitrogen availability [7][8][9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid Changes in Ground Vegetation of Mature Boreal Forests—An Analysis of Swedish National Forest Inventory Data

Jonsson

Dahlgren

Ekström

et al. 2021

Forests

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The boreal forest floor vegetation is critical for ecosystem functioning and an important part of forest biodiversity. Given the ongoing global change, knowledge on broad-scale changes in the composition and abundance of different plant species and species groups is hence important for both forest conservation and management. Here, we analyse permanent plot data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) on changes in the vegetation over a 10-year period in four regions of Sweden. To limit the direct and relatively well-known effects of forest management and associated succession, we only included mature forest stands not influenced by forestry during the 10 years between inventories, and focused on vegetation change mainly related to other factors. Results show strong decrease among many species and species groups. This includes dominant species such as Vaccinimum myrtillus and Deschampsia flexuosa as well as several forest herbs. The only species increasing are some mosses in the southern regions. Our data do not allow for a causal interpretation of the observed patterns. However, the changes probably result from latent succession in combination with climate change and nitrogen deposition, and with time lags complicating the interpretation of their relative importance. Regardless of the cause, the observed changes are on a magnitude that suggest impacts on ecosystem functioning and hence highlight the need for more experimental work.

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Global warming will affect the maximum potential abundance of boreal plant species

Cited by 35 publications

References 74 publications

Changes in forest structure drive temperature preferences of boreal understorey plant communities

Changes in forest structure drive temperature preferences of boreal understorey plant communities

Macroclimate drives growth of hair lichens in boreal forest canopies

Rapid Changes in Ground Vegetation of Mature Boreal Forests—An Analysis of Swedish National Forest Inventory Data

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