Governing the transition to low-carbon futures: A critical survey of energy scenarios for 2050

Söderholm, Patrik; Hildingsson, Roger; Johansson, Bengt; Khan, Jamil; Wilhelmsson, Fredrik

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2011.07.009

Cited by 84 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…As briefly discussed, there are a large number of aspects of the simulation that may provide particular framings or priming that may also lead to skewed results. These considerations add weight to the argument that scenario building should focus on integrated qualitative and quantitative methods (Söderholm et al, 2011), and that deliberative public engagement is a more appropriate approach when there are complex policy issues that require trade-offs and public buy-in for successful implementation (National Consumer Council, 2008). Placing such an approach within an overarching public engagement strategy would be required to accommodate the diversity and extent of the UK population.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most scenario studies examine the impact of different policy measures on technological uptake , although emerging research highlights the significant role institutional and behavioural change will also have to play in achieving a low carbon energy future. This suggests that scenario building would be strengthened if it integrates qualitative and quantitative methods (Söderholm et al, 2011). Policy decisions will need to be made in the near future about preferred low carbon scenarios for energy and transport supply and demand options, particularly for infrastructure investment, if the targets in the Climate Change Act are to be achieved (Skea et al, 2011).…”

Section: Background To Decc's 2050 Calculator and Online Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Carbon reduction scenarios for 2050: An explorative analysis of public preferences

Allen

Chatterton

2013

Energy Policy

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Background To Decc's 2050 Calculator and Online Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon reduction scenarios for 2050: An explorative analysis of public preferences

Allen

Chatterton

2013

Energy Policy

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“…Controversy centres on wind power (Nadai and Labussière, 2009), biofuels, nuclear energy (Bonneval and Lacroix-Lanoë, 2011), shale gas (IFOP, 2013), carbon capture and sequestration (Ha Duong et al, 2009), and even electric vehicles (Thiel et al, 2012). Furthermore, a large number of low-carbon scenarios are based on the assumption of seamless penetration by the relevant technologies, guided when appropriate by a single, cross-the-board carbon price (Söderholm et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

2015

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Abstract:This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R France technicoeconomic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centring on the acceptability of climate policies.

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“…In the environmental area, these include investigations of climate-related impacts (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2007) and climate policy (e.g., Silberglitt et al, 2003;Polasky et al, 2011;Soderholm et al 2011). Air quality studies that apply scenarios have focused either on specific aspects of management organizational structure and functionality, or on application of alternative policy instruments, or on sensitivities to key input variables (e.g., Longhurst et al, 1996;Cofala et al, 2007;Xing et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management

Gamas

Dodder

Loughlin

et al. 2015

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

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The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NO x emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO 2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions.Implications: Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management options across wide-ranging conditions. IntroductionIn the United States, air quality managers at the federal and state levels develop emission reduction strategies to meet air quality standards. Emission inventories are projected into the future, both with and without each candidate strategy. Air quality models are then used to evaluate the resulting changes in air quality. At the federal level, illustrative emission reduction strategies are a key component of Regulatory Impact Analyses (RIAs) (e.g., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], 2009[EPA], , 2012a[EPA], 2012b[EPA], , 2014). These strategies demonstrate how an air quality standard can be met and are used in estimating the resulting costs and health and environmental benefits. For states, emission reduction strategies often support State Implementation Plans (SIPs), which specify how the state will comply with air quality standards into the future (e.g., California Air Resources Board [CARB], 2007; Texas Commission on Environmental Quality [TCEQ], 2012). In RIA and SIP applicatio...

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Governing the transition to low-carbon futures: A critical survey of energy scenarios for 2050

Cited by 84 publications

References 25 publications

Carbon reduction scenarios for 2050: An explorative analysis of public preferences

Carbon reduction scenarios for 2050: An explorative analysis of public preferences

Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management

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