Government Epidemic Prevention and Economic Growth Path Under Public Health Emergency: Theoretical Model and Simulation Analysis

Yin, Zhichao; Xiao-xu, Chen; Wang, Zongshu; Xiang, Lijin

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2021.748041

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Advancements in vaccines have played a major role in the significant decrease of exanthem infection cases globally and led to the eradication of multiple viral diseases; yet, the risk of outbreaks still exists ( “CDC,” 2024 ). Such outbreaks can lead to substantial health and socioeconomic burdens on countries ( Yin et al, 2021 ). Governmental policies, such as vaccine mandates, help in reducing and mitigating the risks of outbreaks and maintaining the overall health and well-being of the public.…”

Section: Exanthematous Viral Infectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiologic and clinical updates on viral infections in Saudi Arabia

Alshiban,

Aleyiydi,

Nassar

et al. 2024

Saudi Pharmaceutical Journal

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Section: Exanthematous Viral Infectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiologic and clinical updates on viral infections in Saudi Arabia

Alshiban,

Aleyiydi,

Nassar

et al. 2024

Saudi Pharmaceutical Journal

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“… 48 Yin et al constructed a local equilibrium model to analyze the impact of the government’s interventions on the social economy under infectious diseases with different intensities. 49 Roberts et al designed a set of sequential mediation models to find the key factors that influence college students’ behaviors and emphasized how individual self-protection can greatly reduce the rate of infection in the population. 50 …”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…48 Yin et al constructed a local equilibrium model to analyze the impact of the government's interventions on the social economy under infectious diseases with different intensities. 49 Roberts et al designed a set of sequential mediation models to find the key factors that influence college students' behaviors and emphasized how individual self-protection can greatly reduce the rate of infection in the population. 50 According to the above literature review, whistleblowers' active vocalization can make the public know more details about the risk posed by an event, increase its risk perception, and prompt the relevant departments to take appropriate measures.…”

Section: Risk Perception and Preventive Behaviorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Early Warning Mechanism of Public Health Emergencies Through Whistleblowing: A Perspective Based on Considering the Uncertainty of Risk Perception

Ma¹,

Liu²,

An³

2023

RMHP

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Purpose During the early warning period of public health emergencies, the information released by whistleblowers on the risk posed by the given event can reduce uncertainty in the public’s risk perception and help governments take timely actions to contain the large-scale dissemination of risk. The purpose of this study is to give full play to whistleblowers and draw attention to the risk events, forming a pluralistic model of the risk governance during the early warning period of public health emergencies. Methods We construct an evolutionary game model of the early warning of public health emergencies through whistleblowing that involves the government, whistleblowers, and the public, discussing the mechanism of interaction between these subjects under the uncertainty of risk perception. Furthermore, we use numerical simulations to analyze the influence of changes in the relevant parameters on the evolutionary trajectory of the subjects’ behaviors. Results The results of the research are obtained by numerical simulation of the evolutionary game model. The results show that the public’s cooperation with the government encourages the latter to take a positive guidance strategy. Increasing the reward for whistleblowers within an acceptable cost, strengthening the propaganda of the mechanism and the higher level of risk perception of the government and whistleblowers will promote whistleblowers’ vocalization actively. When the government’s reward for whistleblowers is lower, the whistleblowers choose negative vocalization with the improvement of the public’s risk perception. If there is no mandatory guidance from the government at this point, the public is prone to passively cooperating with the government owing to a lack of risk-related information. Conclusion Establishing an early warning mechanism through whistleblowing is important for containing risk in the early warning period of public health emergencies. Building the whistleblowing mechanism in daily work can improve the effectiveness of the mechanism and enhance the public’s risk perception better when the public health emergencies arise.

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“…In the first stage (T = 0-16), the level of activity improves rapidly as the parameters expand. The indicator declines more significantly in line with the increased parameters in the second stage (T = [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35] and then tends to maintain stable growth with a reduced slope in the final stage (T = 36-69). In Figure 7c, the total social and economic benefit approximately maintains a linear increase over the whole duration of the pandemic, and in all cases, proportionally changes in line with the variation in the parameters.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysis Of Model Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The study concluded that removing anti-epidemic measures too early will result in large benefits in the short term, but will not achieve consistent benefits in the long run. Yin et al [ 31 ] studied the link between, on the one hand, government intervention and the spread of the pandemic and, on the other hand, economic development under conditions of public health emergency shocks. The results also demonstrate that strict anti-virus policy measures have a limited effect in recovering from the harmful impact of the public health emergencies caused by the highly contagious virus.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade-Off between COVID-19 Pandemic Prevention and Control and Economic Stimulus

Liu

Wang

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed a severe threat to public health and economic activity. Governments all around the world have taken positive measures to, on the one hand, contain the epidemic spread and, on the other hand, stimulate the economy. Without question, tightened anti-epidemic policy measures restrain people’s mobility and deteriorate the levels of social and economic activity. Meanwhile, loose policy measures bring little harm to the economy temporarily but could accelerate the transmission of the virus and ultimately wreck social and economic development. Therefore, these two kinds of governmental decision-making behaviors usually conflict with each other. With the purpose of realizing optimal socio-economic benefit over the full duration of the epidemic and to provide a helpful suggestion for the government, a trade-off is explored in this paper between the prevention and control of the epidemic, and economic stimulus. First, the susceptible–infectious–recovered (SIR) model is introduced to simulate the epidemic dynamics. Second, a state equation is constructed to describe the system state variable—the level of socio-economic activity dominated by two control variables. Specifically, these two variables are the strengths of the measures taken for pandemic prevention and control, and economic stimulus. Then, the objective function used to maximize the total socio-economic benefit over the epidemic’s duration is defined, and an optimal control problem is developed. The statistical data of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan are used to validate the SIR model, and a COVID-19 epidemic scenario is used to evaluate the proposed method. The solution is discussed in both static and dynamic strategies, according to the knowledge of the epidemic’s duration. In the static strategy, two scenarios with different strengths (in terms of anti-epidemic and economic stimulus measures) are analyzed and compared. In the dynamic strategy, two global optimization algorithms, including the dynamic programming (DP) and Pontryagin’s minimum principle (PMP), respectively, are used to acquire the solutions. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis of model parameters is conducted. The results demonstrate that the static strategy, which is independent of the epidemic’s duration and can be easily solved, is capable of finding the optimal strengths of both policy measures. Meanwhile, the dynamic strategy, which generates global optimal trajectories of the control variables, can provide the path that leads to attaining the optimal total socio-economic benefit. The results reveal that the optimal total socio-economic benefit of the dynamic strategy is slightly higher than that of the static strategy.

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Government Epidemic Prevention and Economic Growth Path Under Public Health Emergency: Theoretical Model and Simulation Analysis

Cited by 7 publications

References 32 publications

Epidemiologic and clinical updates on viral infections in Saudi Arabia

Epidemiologic and clinical updates on viral infections in Saudi Arabia

The Early Warning Mechanism of Public Health Emergencies Through Whistleblowing: A Perspective Based on Considering the Uncertainty of Risk Perception

Trade-Off between COVID-19 Pandemic Prevention and Control and Economic Stimulus

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