Gravity model by panel data approach: empirical evidence from Nigeria

Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano; Bawa, Sani

doi:10.1504/ijtgm.2015.067972

Cited by 9 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The small number of R square are common for Random Effect Model estimation. Several studies resulted on R square only 57% [9], and 50% [10], and even there is other study that only shows R square of 48% [11]. Moreover, the results of F-test showed a P value of 0.0000 which is less than 0.05, which is can be concluded that all variables significantly influence the growth of Indonesia's palm oil exports (simultaneously).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Impact of ASEAN-India Free Trade Area on Indonesian Palm Oil Export: A Gravity Model Approach

Glorius¹,

Akhmadi²,

Widodo³

2021

Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Sustainable Innovation 2020–Social, Humanity, and Education (ICoSIHESS 2020)

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This research focuses on investigating whether Indonesia's membership in the ASEAN-India Free Trade Area (AIFTA) increases Indonesia's palm oil exports to India. The analysis technique used in this study is gravity model with estimates using panel data. The data derived from 36 partner countries of Indonesia's palm oil exports in period of 1999-2018 have been applied to analyze the factors that affect Indonesia's palm oil exports. The result showed that population, exchange rate, and partner countries arable land have significant impact on Indonesian palm oil exports, while distance and GDP of destination countries show insignificant result. Indonesia's membership in AIFTA has been proven not to have a significant impact on Indonesia's palm oil exports.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Impact of ASEAN-India Free Trade Area on Indonesian Palm Oil Export: A Gravity Model Approach

Glorius¹,

Akhmadi²,

Widodo³

2021

Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Sustainable Innovation 2020–Social, Humanity, and Education (ICoSIHESS 2020)

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“…To the best of the authors' knowledge, there is no significant research on Nigeria's cocoa exports using the gravity model. However, a limited number of studies are reported regarding the Nigerian trade (ALIYU & BAWA, 2015;OLADIPUPO & ADEDOYIN, 2019), cocoa exports competitiveness (NWACHUKWU et al, 2010) and political economy of cocoa (OLAIYA, 2016). It is thus apparent that there is a dearth of literature on the determinants of the Nigerian exports of cocoa.…”

Section: Abdullahi Et Almentioning

confidence: 99%

Nigeria’s cocoa exports: a gravity model approach

Abdullahi¹,

Shahriar

Kea

et al. 2021

Cienc. Rural

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What are the major factors affecting Nigeria’s cocoa export flows? In answering this question, the authors suggest a commodity-specific gravity model with three different analytical approaches, (the Heckman Sample Selection Model, the Generalised Least Square, and the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood), based on a period of 24 years of panel data for Nigeria and it’s 36 importing partners to estimate the models. The results showed that GDP, exchange rate policy, WTO, EU, and colonial link are positively associated with the Nigerian cocoa export flows. Further, the negative impact of the GDP per capita, landlocked, distance, AU, and ECOWAS are observed. The need for the expansion of exports to the trading partners, especially the EU members (Netherlands, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Belgium, Spain, etc.), Canada, Malaysia, and the USA is particularly highlighted. These results are important for the formulation of future trade policy that could boost up the Nigerian cocoa exports. This would eventually contribute to the diversification of the Nigerian exports and also enhance the country’s foreign earnings.

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“…The outcome revealed a significant negative impact of FDI stock on bilateral trade development in Nigeria. A gravity model was applied by Aliyu and Bawa (2015) to assess Nigerian trade determinant but did not capture FDI and the method of analysis was restricted to ordinary least square (OLS) with fixed effect.…”

Section: Asian Economic and Financial Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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2020

Asian Economic and Financial Review

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Most of the Nigerian government's transformation agenda is geared toward creating and enabling business environments to attract foreign direct investment. Opinions are divided as to the impact of foreign investment on trade and this researcher believed it could be either positive or negative. Hence, this research is to ascertain the magnitude of foreign investment's impact on Nigeria's bilateral trade. Integrating foreign direct investment in the gravity model, we applied the PPML technique because of its robustness and ability to recognise zero trade. We segregated foreign investment into three-flow, stock and its annual growth. Our estimation revealed that foreign direct investment stock impacts negatively on bilateral trade flow in Nigeria for both exports and imports and it is robust with the overall sample. Exporters' foreign direct investment inflow was also revealed to have an impact on bilateral trade in Nigeria. But in all ramifications the magnitude of the negative impact is relatively small but statistically significant reflecting that trade and inward foreign investment are at least substitutes. Nigeria should further encourage inward foreign investment to further stimulate economic growth and aid in creating import substitution. Contribution/ Originality: This study uses new estimation methodology and the model to determine the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on Nigeria's trade development. The impact of FDI was measured from three perspectives; stock, flow and growth. The paper revealed there is a robust and statistically significant negative effect of FDI on trade, though very negligible.

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Gravity model by panel data approach: empirical evidence from Nigeria

Cited by 9 publications

References 38 publications

Impact of ASEAN-India Free Trade Area on Indonesian Palm Oil Export: A Gravity Model Approach

Impact of ASEAN-India Free Trade Area on Indonesian Palm Oil Export: A Gravity Model Approach

Nigeria’s cocoa exports: a gravity model approach

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