Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

Brown, P.; Caldeira, Ken

doi:10.1038/nature24672

Cited by 276 publications

(148 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Monitoring the moss layer might provide early information on several interrelated aspects of ongoing changes in forest ecosystems. For example, predicted climate warming (see https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/, Olsen et al, ; Brown & Caldeira, ) may cause decline in moss cover, which can be magnified further by land management‐ or climate‐induced changes in forest canopy composition (Lambrechts, Wilkie, Rucevska, & Sen, ). In turn, the decline in moss cover (He et al, ) may increase carbon emissions from forested ecosystems (Deane‐Coe & Stanton, ) and contribute to further climate warming (cf.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Latitudinal patterns and environmental drivers of moss layer cover in extratropical forests

Berdugo

Quant

Wason

et al. 2018

Global Ecol Biogeogr

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Aim The forest moss layer plays an important role in water retention, nutrient cycling and forest regeneration. We quantified broad‐scale latitudinal patterns and environmental drivers of moss layer cover in extratropical upland forests where such information has been missing. Location One thousand, nine hundred and seventy‐seven sites outside the tropical belt (i.e., beyond 26° N and S) across longitudes (from 154° W to 140° E) and elevations (from 0 to 3,950 m a.s.l.). Time period Current (1969–2016). Major taxa studied Moss layer bryophytes (mosses, liverworts and hornworts). Methods We compiled three large datasets from: (a) a global literature search, (b) a national forest inventory database in the USA and (c) an extensive survey along the Appalachian Trail (Eastern USA) to contrast the moss layer cover along latitudinal gradients and among regions. We used correlation analysis and simple (meta‐ and linear‐) regression to test whether moss layer cover increased towards the poles across and within forest biomes, and we used multiple (meta‐ and beta‐) regression to test whether and how climate, forest composition and age and topography influence forest moss layer cover at broad spatial scales. Results Forest moss cover increased towards the North along a clear latitudinal gradient by c. 2% per 1° of latitude, and it decreased with increasing maximum temperature by c. 1%–5% per 1°C. Thus, cool northern regions (e.g., northern Europe) can be considered forest moss layer hotspots. Moss layer cover was driven mainly by canopy composition when all potential drivers were considered. Compared with broad‐scale systematic surveys, the data from specialized literature overestimated moss cover in broadleaf deciduous forests where moss cover was low and variable. Main conclusions Our findings highlight that systematic surveys complement specialized literature in accurately modelling abundance on broad scales. Given that temperature, rather than precipitation or seasonality, limited the abundance of forest moss layer on broad scales, the moss layer might be a promising tool for monitoring forest ecosystem responses to climate warming.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Latitudinal patterns and environmental drivers of moss layer cover in extratropical forests

Berdugo

Quant

Wason

et al. 2018

Global Ecol Biogeogr

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“…With current emission trends close to a pathway of 3 °C warming by the end of the present century (Sanford et al, ; Brown and Caldeira, ), this study might be useful to guide decision makers and water management planners. The tendency towards increased moisture conditions with higher warming levels, which can be expected in most of the LPB region, could bring positive effects on freshwater availability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre‐industrial level

Montroull

Saurral

Camilloni

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The assessment of regional climate and hydrological impacts at different levels of global‐mean temperature increase became vital to guide decision makers and water management planners after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. With current emission trends close to a pathway of 3 °C warming by the end of the present century, this study investigates the projected regional hydrology impacts over La Plata basin (LPB) for the warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2 °C established in Paris and for 3 °C above the pre‐industrial level. We also explore the consequences from following a medium or high‐emission representative concentration pathway (RCP) to achieve the different warming targets. In order to determine the possible changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharges, we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)‐distributed hydrology model in combination of bias‐corrected GCM outputs from the Inter‐Sectorial Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP). Because the behaviour of the hydrometeorological variables is not homogeneous over LPB, we analysed impacts of the different changes in mean global temperature and RCPs over four sub‐basins: Paraguay, Paraná, Iguazú and Uruguay. Overall, most of the changes over the sub‐basins suggest moister conditions with increasing temperatures. The comparison of the RCPs indicates that increases in precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff would be larger under the medium‐emission scenario. When the different responses of the various components of the terrestrial water cycle were integrated, results show that variation of annual mean streamflow in all sub‐basins ranges between ±20%. However, in most cases, the sign of the changes highly depends on the RCP chosen to achieve a warming level.

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“…A recent assessment suggests emissions are currently tracking above RCP8.5 (Sanford, Frumhoff, Luers, & Gulledge, ), and there is evidence that AOGCM projections under RCP8.5 currently underestimate warming during this century by ca . 15% (Brown & Caldeira, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in wind assistance under climate change for nocturnally migrating bird populations

Sorte

Horton

Nilsson

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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Current climate models and observations indicate that atmospheric circulation is being affected by global climate change. To assess how these changes may affect nocturnally migrating bird populations, we need to determine how current patterns of wind assistance at migration altitudes will be enhanced or reduced under future atmospheric conditions. Here, we use information compiled from 143 weather surveillance radars stations within the contiguous United States to estimate the daily altitude, density, and direction of nocturnal migration during the spring and autumn. We intersected this information with wind projections to estimate how wind assistance is expected to change during this century at current migration altitudes. The prevailing westerlies at midlatitudes are projected to increase in strength during spring migration and decrease in strength to a lesser degree during autumn migration. Southerly winds will increase in strength across the continent during both spring and autumn migration, with the strongest gains occurring in the center of the continent. Wind assistance is projected to increase across the central (0.44 m/s; 10.1%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.32 m/s; 9.6%) during spring migration, and wind assistance is projected to decrease within the central (0.32 m/s; 19.3%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.17 m/s; 6.6%) during autumn migration. Thus, across a broad portion of the continent where migration intensity is greatest, the efficiency of nocturnal migration is projected to increase in the spring and decrease in the autumn, potentially affecting time and energy expenditures for many migratory bird species. These findings highlight the importance of placing climate change projections within a relevant ecological context informed through empirical observations, and the need to consider the possibility that climate change may generate both positive and negative implications for natural systems.

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Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

Cited by 276 publications

References 48 publications

Latitudinal patterns and environmental drivers of moss layer cover in extratropical forests

Latitudinal patterns and environmental drivers of moss layer cover in extratropical forests

Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre‐industrial level

Projected changes in wind assistance under climate change for nocturnally migrating bird populations

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