Greater Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Intensify Western U.S. Droughts, Wildfire Severity, and Sierra Nevada Tree Mortality

Crockett, Joseph L.; Westerling, A. L.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0254.1

Cited by 110 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…Using the resurrection approach, we found compelling evidence that phenological traits shifted in an adaptive manner during the intense drought, and this may partially explain how the species range of this plant has remained stable over recent decades (Sexton & Dickman, ), whereas other species are exhibiting range shifts due to severe drought and climate change (Crockett & Westerling, ; Serra‐Diaz et al, ). We documented a significant reduction in time to emergence that would be adaptive in hotter and drier climates, accompanied by a reduction in variance in emergence time in the drought generation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Evidence for adaptive responses to historic drought across a native plant species range

Dickman

Pennington

Franks

et al. 2019

Evolutionary Applications

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As climatic conditions change, species will be forced to move or adapt to avoid extinction. Exacerbated by ongoing climate change, California recently experienced a severe and exceptional drought from 2011 to 2017. To investigate whether an adaptive response occurred during this event, we conducted a “resurrection” study of the cutleaf monkeyflower ( Mimulus laciniatus ), an annual plant, by comparing trait means and variances of ancestral seed collections (“pre‐drought”) with contemporary descendant collections (“drought”). Plants were grown under common conditions to test whether this geographically restricted species has the capacity to respond evolutionarily to climate stress across its range. We examined if traits shifted in response to the recent, severe drought and included populations across an elevation gradient, including populations at the low‐ and high‐elevation edges of the species range. We found that time to seedling emergence in the drought generation was significantly earlier than in the pre‐drought generation, a response consistent with drought adaptation. Additionally, trait variation in days to emergence was reduced in the drought generation, which suggests selection or bottleneck events. Days to first flower increased significantly by elevation, consistent with climate adaptation across the species range. Drought generation plants were larger and had greater reproduction, which was likely a carryover effect of earlier germination. These results demonstrate that rapid shifts in trait means and variances consistent with climate adaptation are occurring within populations, including peripheral populations at warm and cold climate limits, of a plant species with a relatively restricted range that has so far not shifted its elevation distribution during contemporary climate change. Thus, rapid evolution may mitigate, at least temporarily, range shifts under global climate change. This study highlights the need for better understanding rapid adaptation as a means for plant communities to cope with extraordinary climate events.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Evidence for adaptive responses to historic drought across a native plant species range

Dickman

Pennington

Franks

et al. 2019

Evolutionary Applications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…California's climate is highly variable (Swain, Langenbrunner, Neelin, & Hall, ), with a recent severe drought killing more than 100 million trees (Stephens et al, ) and a high probability of a multidecadal drought occurring this century (Cook, Ault, & Smerdon, ). Anthropogenic climate change is increasing the frequency of climate extremes in California (Cvijanovic et al, ; Diffenbaugh, Swain, & Touma, ), leading to changes in natural disturbance regimes (Abatzoglou & Williams, ; Crockett & Westerling, ). However, the future effects of climate and land change on ecosystem carbon balance are difficult to predict, and pose additional challenges to meeting greenhouse gas reduction targets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of 21st‐century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California

Sleeter

Marvin

Cameron

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

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Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO2. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in California over the period 2001–2100. We modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 land use and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models. Between 2001 and 2015, carbon storage in California's terrestrial ecosystems declined by −188.4 Tg C, with a mean annual flux ranging from a source of −89.8 Tg C/year to a sink of 60.1 Tg C/year. The large variability in the magnitude of the state's carbon source/sink was primarily attributable to interannual variability in weather and climate, which affected the rate of carbon uptake in vegetation and the rate of ecosystem respiration. Under nearly all future scenarios, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was projected to decline, with an average loss of −9.4% (−432.3 Tg C) by the year 2100 from current stocks. However, uncertainty in the magnitude of carbon loss was high, with individual scenario projections ranging from −916.2 to 121.2 Tg C and was largely driven by differences in future climate conditions projected by climate models. Moving from a high to a low radiative forcing scenario reduced net ecosystem carbon loss by 21% and when combined with reductions in land‐use change (i.e., moving from a high to a low land‐use scenario), net carbon losses were reduced by 55% on average. However, reconciling large uncertainties associated with the effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 is needed to better constrain models used to establish baseline conditions from which ecosystem‐based climate mitigation strategies can be evaluated.

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“…Dryland environments are inherently variable, characterised by stochastic rainfall patterns with a higher inter-annual and intra-annual variability [7]. Recent studies [8][9][10] are revealing a global intensification of inter-annual rainfall variability with an intensification of extreme weather events. According to [11], the long term global warming patterns tend to increase in semi-arid areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past, Present and Future Climate Trends Under Varied Representative Concentration Pathways for a Sub-Humid Region in Uganda

Egeru

Barasa

Josephine

et al. 2019

Climate

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Long-term trend analysis at local scale for rainfall and temperature is critical for detecting climate change patterns. This study analysed historical (1980–2009), near future (2010–2039), mid- (1940–2069) and end-century (2070–2099) rainfall and temperature over Karamoja sub-region. The Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) daily climate data provided by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) was used. The AgMIP delta method analysis protocol was used for an ensemble of 20 models under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Historical mean rainfall was 920.1 ± 118.9 mm and minimum, maximum and mean temperature were 16.8 ± 0.5 °C, 30.6 ± 0.4 °C and 32.0 ± 0.7 °C, respectively. Minimum temperature over the historical period significantly rose between 2000 and 2008. Near future rainfall varied by scenario with 1012.9 ± 146.3 mm and 997.5 ± 144.7 mm for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively; with a sharp rise predicted in 2017. In the mid-century, mean annual rainfall will be 1084.7 ± 137.4 mm and 1205.5 ± 164.9 mm under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. The districts of Kaabong and Kotido are projected to experience low rainfall total under RCP4.5 (mid-century) and RCP8.5 (end-century). The minimum temperature is projected to increase by 1.8 °C (RCP4.5) and 2.1 °C (RCP8.5) in mid-century, and by 2.2 °C (RCP4.5) and 4.0 °C (RCP8.5) in end-century.

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Greater Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Intensify Western U.S. Droughts, Wildfire Severity, and Sierra Nevada Tree Mortality

Cited by 110 publications

References 74 publications

Evidence for adaptive responses to historic drought across a native plant species range

Evidence for adaptive responses to historic drought across a native plant species range

Effects of 21st‐century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California

Past, Present and Future Climate Trends Under Varied Representative Concentration Pathways for a Sub-Humid Region in Uganda

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