Greater Yellowstone climate assessment: past, present, and future climate change in greater Yellowstone watersheds

Hostetler, Steven W.; Whitlock, Cathy; Shuman, Bryan N.; Drimal, Charles Wolf; Bischke, Scott; District, Los Altos Ca Midpeninsula Regional Open Space; Coalition, Greater Yellowstone

doi:10.15788/gyca2021

Cited by 20 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…Two samples (SGE-117 and SGE-118) yielded modern ages (Hurwitz et al, 2023), and we suspect that these are from trees that possibly died in 1878 or later. Overall, our findings in relation to major regional droughts are consistent with other regional paleoclimate records (Cook et al, 2004;Heeter et al, 2021;Hostetler et al, 2021;Shuman & Serravezza, 2017;Turner et al, 2022;Whitlock et al, 2012;Williams et al, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

The Relation Between Decadal Droughts and Eruptions of Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone National Park, USA

Hurwitz

King²,

Pederson

et al. 2023

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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The rarity of natural geysers reflects the special conditions needed for their formation: availability of water, a supply of heat, and a subsurface that has the right geometry of fractures and cavities to permit episodic discharge (Hurwitz & Manga, 2017). Decreased water supply to geysers in response to geothermal energy production (Barrick, 2007;White, 1992) or severe multidecadal regional droughts (Hurwitz et al., 2020) can lead to eruption cessation. Another mechanism to suppress geyser eruptions is by submerging the vent, for example, if landslides dam rivers and impound water (Kiryukhin, 2016). About half of the world's geysers are in Yellowstone National Park (USA), where much information on recent geyser activity has been documented (e.g., Hurwitz

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

The Relation Between Decadal Droughts and Eruptions of Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone National Park, USA

Hurwitz

King²,

Pederson

et al. 2023

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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“…The region is expected to get warmer and drier over the 21st century, with lengthening fire seasons and harsher conditions for germination and establishment of young tree seedlings (Romme & Turner, 2015; Westerling et al, 2011). Since 1950, Greater Yellowstone has warmed +1.3°C, and annual snowfall has decreased by 25% (Hostetler et al, 2021). Soils are primarily derived from highly infertile, volcanic rhyolite; slightly less infertile andesite; or sedimentary parent materials (Despain, 1990).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Less fuel for the next fire? Short‐interval fire delays forest recovery and interacting drivers amplify effects

Braziunas

Kiel

Turner

2023

Ecology

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As 21st‐century climate and disturbance dynamics depart from historic baselines, ecosystem resilience is uncertain. Multiple drivers are changing simultaneously, and interactions among drivers could amplify ecosystem vulnerability to change. Subalpine forests in Greater Yellowstone (Northern Rocky Mountains, USA) were historically resilient to infrequent (100–300 year), severe fire. We sampled paired short‐interval (<30‐year) and long‐interval (>125‐year) post‐fire plots most recently burned between 1988 and 2018 to address two questions: (1) How do short‐interval fire, climate, topography, and distance to unburned live forest edge interact to affect post‐fire forest regeneration? (2) How do forest biomass and fuels vary following short‐interval versus long‐interval severe fires? Mean post‐fire live tree stem density was an order of magnitude lower following short‐interval versus long‐interval fires (3240 vs. 28,741 stems ha−1, respectively). Differences between paired plots were amplified at longer distances to live forest edge. Surprisingly, warmer–drier climate was associated with higher seedling densities even after short‐interval fire, likely relating to regional variation in serotiny of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia). Unlike conifers, density of aspen (Populus tremuloides), a deciduous resprouter, increased with short‐interval versus long‐interval fires (mean 384 vs. 62 stems ha−1, respectively). Live biomass and canopy fuels remained low nearly 30 years after short‐interval fire, in contrast with rapid recovery after long‐interval fire, suggesting that future burn severity may be reduced for several decades following reburns. Short‐interval plots also had half as much dead woody biomass compared with long‐interval plots (60 vs. 121 Mg ha−1), primarily due to the absence of large snags. Our results suggest differences in tree regeneration following short‐interval versus long‐interval fires will be especially pronounced where serotiny was high historically. Propagule limitation will also interact with short‐interval fires to diminish tree regeneration but lessen subsequent burn severity. Amplifying driver interactions are likely to threaten forest resilience under expected trajectories of a future fire.

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“…Jackson Lake's ecological responses to changes in climate and hydrology over the past several centuries are largely unknown. According to Hostetler et al (2021), from 1950 to 2018 CE temperatures warmed in the Snake River headwaters by 1.1 °F and in the Upper Snake River by 2.3 °F.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The timing of snowmelt, more so than rainfall, is important for the recharge of rivers and lakes in Grand Teton National Park. It is projected that summers and winters will continue to warm in the Teton Range, with precipitation projected to increase by 7%-8% by the end of the century (Hostetler et al, 2021). Presently, average annual temperatures in the nearby city of Jackson Hole have warmed, but precipitation (as rain) has remained consistent from 1910present (NOAA, 2021aNOAA, 2021b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fossil Diatoms Reveal Natural and Anthropogenic History of Jackson Lake (Wyoming, USA)

Dilworth¹,

Stone²,

Yeager³

et al. 2023

Earth Sci. Syst. Soc.

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Jackson Lake supplies valuable cultural and provisioning ecosystem services to the Upper Snake River watershed in Wyoming and Idaho (western USA). Construction of Jackson Lake Dam in the early 20th century raised lake level by ∼12 m, generating an important water resource supporting agriculture and ranching, as well as tourism associated with Grand Teton National Park. Outlet engineering drastically altered Jackson Lake’s surface area, morphology, and relationship with the inflowing Snake River, yet the consequences for nutrient dynamics and algae in the lake are unknown. Here, we report the results of a retrospective environmental assessment completed for Jackson Lake using a paleolimnological approach. Paleoecological (diatoms) and geochemical datasets were developed on a well-dated sediment core and compared with available hydroclimate data from the region, to assess patterns of limnological change. The core spans the termination of the Little Ice Age and extends to the present day (∼1654–2019 CE). Diatom assemblages prior to dam installation are characterized by high relative abundances of plankton that thrive under low nutrient availability, most likely resulting from prolonged seasonal ice cover and perhaps a single, short episode of deep convective mixing. Following dam construction, diatom assemblages shifted to planktic species that favor more nutrient-rich waters. Elemental abundances of sedimentary nitrogen and phosphorous support the interpretation that dam installation resulted in a more mesotrophic state in Jackson Lake after ∼1916 CE. The data are consistent with enhanced nutrient loading associated with dam emplacement, which inundated deltaic wetlands and nearshore vegetation, and perhaps increased water residence times. The results of the study highlight the sensitivity of algal composition and productivity to changes in nutrient status that accompany outlet engineering of natural lakes by humans and have implications for water resource management.

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Greater Yellowstone climate assessment: past, present, and future climate change in greater Yellowstone watersheds

Cited by 20 publications

References 85 publications

The Relation Between Decadal Droughts and Eruptions of Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone National Park, USA

The Relation Between Decadal Droughts and Eruptions of Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone National Park, USA

Less fuel for the next fire? Short‐interval fire delays forest recovery and interacting drivers amplify effects

Fossil Diatoms Reveal Natural and Anthropogenic History of Jackson Lake (Wyoming, USA)

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