Greenhouse effect and sea level rise: The cost of holding back the sea

Park, Richard A.; Leatherman, Stephen P.; Weggel, J. Richard; Greene, Michael S.

doi:10.1080/08920759109362138

Cited by 177 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…The cost of a 100-cm rise would be roughly twice that amount (Yohe 1989;Titus et al 1991;Yohe et al 1996;Neumann et al 2000). The estimates vary widely because they are based on a wide range of assumptions and different means of calculating potential costs.…”

Section: Potential Impacts On Coastal and Marine Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

et al. 2002

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Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO •. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO. levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed

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Section: Potential Impacts On Coastal and Marine Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2. Estimated land loss for seven regions of the U.S. without shoreline protection based on projections of current rates (baseline) and sea-level rise of 50 and 100 cm over this century (Titus et al 1991). where shore erosion occurred after the removal of kelp (Hotten 1988).…”

Section: Potential Impacts On Coastal and Marine Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

et al. 2002

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“…The second paper (Rijkswaterstaat 1986) is limited to the Netherlands; its methods are more advanced than those of Schneider and Chen (1980), and it concludes that the Netherlands could be maintained in the face of 5-m sea-level rise over 200 years (see Olsthoorn et al 2008). Note that there are numerous previous results for global impacts of sea-level rise up to a 1-m rise scenario (e.g., Hoozemans et al 1993;Fankhauser 1994;Nicholls 2004;Tol 2007;Nicholls and Tol 2006), and some national results for impacts up to a 2-m rise scenario (e.g., Titus et al 1991;Nicholls and Leatherman 1995a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet: an application of FUND

2008

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The threat of an abrupt and extreme rise in sea level is widely discussed in the media, but little understood in practise, especially the likely impacts of such a rise including a potential adaptation response. This paper explores for the first time the global impacts of extreme sea-level rise, triggered by a hypothetical collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). As the potential contributions remain uncertain, a wide range of scenarios are explored: WAIS contributions to sea-level rise of between 0.5 and 5 m/century. Together with other business-as-usual sea-level contributions, in the worst case this gives an approximately 6-m rise of global-mean sea level from 2030 to 2130. Global exposure to extreme sea-level rise is significant: it is estimated that roughly 400 million people (or about 8% of global population) are threatened by a 5-m rise in sea level, just based on 1995 data. The coastal module within the Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND) model is tuned with global data on coastal zone characteristics concerning population, land areas and land use, and then used for impact analysis under the extreme sea-level rise scenarios. The model considers the interaction of (dry)land loss, wetland loss, protection costs and human displacement, assuming perfect adaptation based on cost-benefit analysis. Unlike earlier analyses, response costs are represented in a non- linear manner, including a sensitivity analysis based on response costs. It is found that much of the world's coast would be abandoned given these extreme scenarios, although according to the global model, significant lengths of the world's coast are worth defending even in the most extreme case. This suggests that actual population displacement would be a small fraction of the potential population displacement, and is consistent with the present distribution of coastal population, which is heavily concentrated in specific areas. Hence, a partial defence can protect most of the world's coastal population. However, protection costs rise substantially diverting large amounts of investment from other sectors, and large areas of (dry)land and coastal wetlands are still predicted to be lost. Detailed case studies of the WAIS collapse in the Netherlands, Thames Estuary and the Rhone delta suggest greater abandonment than shown by the global model, probably because the model assumes perfect implementation of coastal protection and does not account for negative feedbacks when implementation is imperfect. The significant impacts found in the global model together with the potential for greater impacts as found in the detailed case studies shows that the response to abrupt sea-level rise is worthy of further research.Climatic Change (2008) 91:171-191 DOI 10.1007/s10584-008-9424-

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“…This is a crude estimate of welfare loss, but the method is standard in the literature (Yohe 1990;Jansen et al 1991;Nordhaus 1991Nordhaus , 1994Rijsberman 1991;Cline 1992;Titus 1992;Fankhauser 1994;Tol 1995Tol , 1996Tol , 2002Yohe et al 1995Yohe et al , 1996Yohe et al , 1999Titus et al 1998;Yohe and Schlesinger 1998). 5 The value of land is set at $250,000/km 2 in the USA, and varies with income density (GDP per area) using an elasticity of 0.53.…”

Section: Impacts Of Sea Level Risementioning

confidence: 99%

Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise

Bosello

Roson

Tol

2007

Environ Resource Econ

203

107

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Abstract. The economy-wide implications of sea level rise in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. This allows for a better estimate of the welfare effects of sea level rise than the common direct cost estimates; and for an estimate of the impact of sea level rise on greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, general equilibrium effects increase the welfare costs of sea level rise, but not necessarily in every sector or region. In the absence of coastal protection, economies that rely most on agriculture are hit hardest. Although energy is substituted for land, overall energy consumption falls with the shrinking economy, hurting energy exporters. With full coastal protection, GDP increases, particularly in regions with substantial dike building, but utility falls, least in regions that protect their coasts and export energy. Energy prices rise and energy consumption falls. The costs of full protection exceed the costs of losing land. The results also show direct costs -the usual method for estimating welfare changes due to sea level rise -are a bad approximation of the general equilibrium welfare effects; previous estimates of the economic impact of sea level rise are therefore biased.

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Greenhouse effect and sea level rise: The cost of holding back the sea

Cited by 177 publications

References 25 publications

Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet: an application of FUND

Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise

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