Greenhouse gas emission scenarios in nine key non-G20 countries: An assessment of progress toward 2030 climate targets

Kuramochi, Takeshi; Nascimento, Leonardo; Moisio, M.; Elzen, Michel den; Forsell, Nicklas; Soest, Hanneke van; Tanguy, Paola; Gonzales, Sofia; Hans, Frederic; Jeffery, M. Louise; Fekete, Hanna; Schiefer, T.; Casas, Maria Jose de Villafranca; Vivero-Serrano, Gustavo De; Dafnomilis, Ioannis; Roelfsema, Mark; Höhne, Niklas

doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2021.04.015

Cited by 39 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Due to legislative and data available differences across countries, the policy-selection criteria differ for each country. Our definition is compatible with other studies (den Elzen et al 2019 ; Kuramochi et al 2021 ). Here, we avoid the commonly used term ‘current policy scenario’ and use ‘adopted policy scenario’ instead because we discuss projections developed at different points in time.…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 91%

“…The median of emissions across studies that use distinct quantification methodologies indicate that global emissions under adopted policies have not yet peaked and are not expected to do so before 2030 (den Elzen et al 2021b ). Policies are sometimes also insufficient to meet countries’ own NDCs (den Elzen et al 2019 ; Kuramochi et al 2021 ). Even though these results vary across countries, research suggests that collectively countries must implement substantial additional policies and actions to keep global temperature targets within reach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The G20 emission projections to 2030 improved since the Paris Agreement, but only slightly

Nascimento

Kuramochi

Höhne

2022

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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Many years passed since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, which invites countries to determine their own contributions to climate change mitigation efforts. The Agreement does not offer a standard to measure progress but relies on a process of periodic stocktakes to inform ambition-raising cycles. To contribute to this process, we compare 2021 greenhouse gas emission projections up to 2030 against equivalent projections prepared back in 2015. Both sets of projections were prepared using the same bottom-up modelling approach that accounts for adopted policies at the time. We find that 2021 projections for the G20 as a group are almost 15% lower (approximately 6 GtCO2eq) in 2030 than projected in 2015. Annual emissions grow 1% slower in the coming decade than projected in 2015. This slower growth mostly stems from the adoption of new policies and updated expectations on technology uptake and economic growth. However, around one-quarter of these changes are explained by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on short-term emissions and economic forecasts. These factors combined result in substantially lower emission projections for India, the European Union plus the UK (EU27 + UK), the Unites States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. We observe a remarkable change in South African projections that changed from a substantial increase to now a decline, driven in part by the planned phase-out of most of its coal-based power. Emissions in India are projected to grow slower than in 2015 and in Indonesia faster, but emissions per capita in both countries remain below 5 tCO2eq in 2030, while those in the EU27 + UK decline faster than expected in 2015 and probably cross the 5 tCO2eq threshold before 2030. Projected emissions per capita in Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are now lower than projected in 2015 but remain above 15 tCO2eq in 2030. Although emission projections for the G20 improved since 2015, collectively they still slightly increase until 2030 and remain insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals. The G20 must urgently and drastically improve adopted policies and actions to limit the end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C.

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The G20 emission projections to 2030 improved since the Paris Agreement, but only slightly

Nascimento

Kuramochi

Höhne

2022

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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“…Существуют разнообразные подходы сценарного моделирования траекторий социально-экономического развития и связанных с ними выбросов парниковых газов. Моделирование ведется на различных масштабах -на глобальном уровне с детализацией результатов на уровне континентов и стран с поддержкой пространственного анализа ключевых индикаторов (Climate…, 2023;Johnson et al, 2023; Van Vuuren et al, 2017;West et al, 2010), на уровне отдельных национальных экономик (Kuramochi et al, 2021;Mosnier et al, 2023), в том числе в России (Strokov, Potashnikov, 2022;Сафонов и др., 2022;Сиптиц и др., 2022) или ее отдельных территорий и регионов . В основном исследуются проекции климатических изменений и основных вариантов социально-экономического развития, так называемых Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), на основные индикаторы развития общества и отдельных секторов экономики.…”

Section: пэ № 1 2024unclassified

Prospects of Carbon Neutrality in Russian Agriculture According to SSP Scenarios: Analysis at the National Level and in а Region

Ryabov,

Ponkina,

Strokov

2024

Spatial Economics

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Sustainable development and reduction of the carbon footprint is an important issue on the development agenda of the Russian national economy and, in particular, the agricultural sector. The study of long-term trajectories of development of the agricultural economy and the conditions for achieving carbon neutrality should take into account the expected climatic and socio-economic changes in the world, which are enshrined in a number of widely used scenarios – ‘Shared Socioeconomic Pathways’ (SSPs) and, as a rule, are based on the use of integral multi-sector models land use dynamics. The study is focused on obtaining projections of climate change and scenarios SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 on the dynamics of crop production in Russia until 2050, with an emphasis on the development of a large agricultural region of Siberia – Altai Krai, in the context of analyzing the timing and conditions for achieving carbon neutrality. The GLOBIOM model, adapted for modeling at the level of Russian regions, was used as a toolkit. The results of scenario modeling made it possible to assess changes in the scale of production and cropland structure, greenhouse gas emissions in carbon units and the overall dynamics of the carbon footprint as well as expected consequences for Russian economy and harnessing the export potential of crops. It has been revealed that achieving carbon neutrality on the regional level (Altai Krai) is a challenge that requires a significant change in the structure of sown areas, the introduction of environmentally-oriented technologies and a significant increase in the productivity of agricultural land. The results contribute to deepening the understanding of regional economic management processes using the example of the Altai Kray and ways to achieve sustainable development goals, in particular achieving carbon neutrality in crop production. The practice of such research can be transferred to other regions of Russia

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“…The difference between the projected emission level of the default setting and the value when one uncertainty factor had changed was analysed. This method is a simple and direct way of analysing the effect of one 13 For 8 major emitting non-G20 countries (Colombia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Morocco, Thailand, United Arab Emirates and Vietnam) the IMAGE calculations are supplemented with current policies scenario projections from Kuramochi et al [51] with updates from Nascimento et al [28].…”

Section: Uncertainty Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of policy and model uncertainties on emissions projections of the Paris Agreement pledges

Elzen

Dafnomilis

Hof

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Tracking progress towards the Paris Agreement climate goal requires understanding the 2030 emission levels implied by countries’ National Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, key uncertainties and assumptions impact greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections implied by the NDCs. This study analyses this impact, both globally and for major emitting countries. We find that the assessed uncertainties markedly affect global GHG emission projections. Full achievement of NDC targets is estimated to result in a range of 46-60 GtCO2eq by 2030 (median estimate: 53 GtCO2eq). The uncertainty in measuring historical emissions, including land-use, as reflected by different datasets is the most important contributing factor. This is followed by two equally important factors globally: socio-economic baseline uncertainty and uncertainty about the emissions implied by current policies in case NDCs are less ambitious than these. Overall, the impact of policy uncertainty (i.e. uncertainty resulting from conditionality of or ranges in NDC targets and uncertainty in emissions resulting from current policies) is about equally important as model/technical uncertainty (i.e. uncertainty in historical emissions and socio-economic baseline variations). This new insight is important for decision makers and researchers because a larger share of the total uncertainty is now attributable to aspects that can be influenced by policy decisions compared to previous analyses of NDC uncertainty.

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Greenhouse gas emission scenarios in nine key non-G20 countries: An assessment of progress toward 2030 climate targets

Cited by 39 publications

References 23 publications

The G20 emission projections to 2030 improved since the Paris Agreement, but only slightly

The G20 emission projections to 2030 improved since the Paris Agreement, but only slightly

Prospects of Carbon Neutrality in Russian Agriculture According to SSP Scenarios: Analysis at the National Level and in а Region

The impact of policy and model uncertainties on emissions projections of the Paris Agreement pledges

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