This paper explains observed trends in freshwater flow to the San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary as reported in a companion paper . We employ a historical hydrologic record spanning nine decades and define a set of idealized flow scenarios to identify drivers of change in delta outflow and consequent salinity regime. Flow changes are measured against a baseline scenario representing 1920-level land use and water management conditions. Additional scenarios are defined to represent the system absent state and federal water project reservoir and export operations, absent key non-project reservoir operations, and absent historicallyobserved sea level rise. These scenarios, in conjunction with the principle of superposition, are used to ascribe outflow and salinity trends to different anthropogenic and natural causes. We find that project and non-project water management are attributed similar responsibility for decreasing outflow trends in April and May and consequent increasing spring salinity trends. In contrast, we find that increasing July and August outflow trends (and lagged decreasing salinity trends) are attributed to flow contributions from project water management; these contributions more than fully attenuate impacts associated with non-project water management. By the mid-20th century, evolving societal values led to a growing awareness and concern for the adverse ecosystem effects that resulted from anthropogenic disturbances. In addition to the early hydrologic alterations described above, other evolving disturbances include out-of-basin exports, entry of invasive species and discharges and runoff of pollutants from a highly urbanized estuary margin. Restoration and environmental management efforts have been implemented in the region over the last four decades to address many of these stressors; however, hydrologic alteration (in general) and flow management (in particular) have been the stressor of primary focus. Freshwater flow (i.e., Delta outflow), which is essential for repelling salinity intrusion into the Delta and is critical to the ecosystem health of the estuary, is regulated to support both human uses and aquatic life (CSWRCB, 2006). Precipitation from the upstream watershed is
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.