Group decision-making in an unconventional emergency situation using agile Delphi approach

Xie, Kai; Liu, Jia; Chen, Gang; Wang, Pan; Chaudhry, Sohail S.

doi:10.1007/s10799-012-0122-0

Cited by 25 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Lauras et al (2013) underlined the capability of an event-cloud platform to efficiently support an emergency situation. Xie et al (2012) proposed the agile-Delphi method to improve decision-making efficiency and to achieve consensus among experts quickly. Tang et al (2009) developed a dynamic decision-making model to support the normative problemsolving process during emergencies.…”

Section: The Main Studies Of the Emergency Decision-making Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Categories in emergency decision-making: prototype-based classification

Cai

Wei

Cao

2019

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Purpose This paper aims to demonstrate how to make emergency decision when decision makers face a complex and turbulent environment that needs quite different decision-making processes from conventional ones. Traditional decision techniques cannot meet the demands of today’s social stability and security. Design/methodology/approach The main work is to develop an instance-driven classifier for the emergency categories based upon three fuzzy measures: features for an instance, solution for the instance and effect evaluation of the outcome. First, the information collected from the past emergency events is encodes into a prototype model. Second, a three-dimensional space that describes the locations and mutual distance relationships of the emergency events in different emergency prototypes is formulated. Third, for any new emergency event to be classified, the nearest emergency prototype is identified in the three-dimensional space and is classified into that category. Findings An instance-driven classifier based on prototype theory helps decision makers to describe emergency concept more clearly. The maximizing deviation model is constructed to determine the optimal relative weights of features according to the characteristics of the new instance, such that every customized feature space maximizes the influence of features shared by members of the category. Comparisons and discusses of the proposed method with other existing methods are given. Practical implications To reduce the affection to economic development, more and more countries have recognized the importance of emergency response solutions as an indispensable activity. In a new emergency instance, it is very challengeable for a decision maker to form a rational and feasible humanitarian aids scheme under the time pressure. After selecting a most suitable prototype, decision makers can learn most relevant experience and lessons in the emergency profile database and generate plan for the new instance. The proposed approach is to effectively make full use of inhomogeneous information in different types of resources and optimize resource allocation. Originality/value The combination of instances can reflect different aspects of a prototype. This feature solves the problem of insufficient learning data, which is a significant characteristic of emergency decision-making. It can be seen as a customized classification mechanism, while the previous classifiers always assume key features of a category.

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Section: The Main Studies Of the Emergency Decision-making Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Categories in emergency decision-making: prototype-based classification

Cai

Wei

Cao

2019

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“…In most cases, there is not enough time for those experts to get together to make decisions while being informed. Fortunately, they need not due to the help by online decision support platform proposed by Xie et al (2012). The platform realizes 425 Emergency supplies in disasters a "virtual" aggregation of experts and helps them to make agile Delphi decision-making.…”

Section: Preparation and Scheduling Process Of Emergency Supplies In Disastersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preparation and scheduling system of emergency supplies in disasters

Liu

Xie

2015

Kybernetes

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Purpose -After the occurrence of a disaster, emergency supplies should arrive at disaster area in the shortest possible time. Therefore, it is of pivotal importance to speed up the preparation and scheduling process. In other words, only when the preparation process and scheduling process coordinate well, could the emergency supplies arrive at disaster area in time. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to explore a method that can strengthen the coordination in various kinds of situations. Design/methodology/approach -The paper first elaborates the preparation and scheduling process of emergency supplies in disasters. Then, it establishes a workflow simulation system of the emergency supplies preparation and scheduling based on Petri Net. Afterward, the paper proposes a simplified simulation system of emergency supplies preparation and scheduling which can be employed in actual emergency response. Finally, the paper takes China Lushan Earthquake for a case study. Findings -By employing the simulation system proposed by this paper, decision makers can simulate the whole emergency supplies preparation and scheduling process, which can help them find a method that can optimize the current process. Specifically, by analyzing the simulation results, the government can obtain conclusions as follows. First, whether the preparation and scheduling process of emergency supplies can speed up or not. Second, which part of the process should be improved to realize the acceleration. Third, the workload of the staffs and experts. Fourth, whether it is necessary to add staffs or experts to work in parallel. Originality/value -This paper proposes a system that can coordinate the preparation process and scheduling process of emergency supplies in disaster. Then, it employs the Petri Net based workflow model to do simulation. The simulation results show that the system designed is reasonable and can be used in practical decision making on the preparation and scheduling of emergency supplies.

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“…As a result, emergency management has received increasing attention by the governments at all levels. Emergency management refers to a series of methods and techniques that are employed such as conducting emergency event studies systematically, improving behaviors such as emergency events defending preparations, monitoring and alerting of emergency event, and disaster recovery policies (Xie et al ., , ; Shan et al ., ,). A virtual community is an open network environment.…”

Section: Introduction and Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying Influential Factors of Knowledge Sharing in Emergency Events: A Virtual Community Perspective

et al. 2013

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Knowledge sharing on emergency events in virtual communities is a significant information source for emergency management. Based on social cognitive theory and social capital theory as well as the consideration of the characteristics of emergency events, we employ a survey questionnaire for the empirical study and adopt the two-stage confirmatory factor analysis method to construct a structural equation model for identifying the influential factors in knowledge sharing in emergencies. Through conducting a detailed data analysis, our study reveals that that some emergency event characteristics have significant effects on both the quality and quantity of knowledge sharing.

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Group decision-making in an unconventional emergency situation using agile Delphi approach

Cited by 25 publications

References 31 publications

Categories in emergency decision-making: prototype-based classification

Categories in emergency decision-making: prototype-based classification

Preparation and scheduling system of emergency supplies in disasters

Identifying Influential Factors of Knowledge Sharing in Emergency Events: A Virtual Community Perspective

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