Group report: Integrated assessment and future scenarios for the coast

Abstract

A prototype scenario assessment was carried out with help of a DP-S-I-R framework to provide an outline forward look at the European coastal areas. Impacts of change were assessed for the following major sectoral or cross-sectoral drivers: climate change, agriculture/forestry, urbanisation, tourism, industry and trade, fishery and shellfish fishery, and energy. The present situation was tabulated prior to an outline of the impacts of three scenarios, i.e. (1) a world market perspective, (2) global sustainability and (3) environmental stewardship. From twelve identified impact categories, three were judged to be of particular significance in the present situation: habitat loss (including coastal squeeze); changes in biodiversity; and the loss of fisheries productivity. A group of three impacts -eutrophicationrelated effects, contamination-related effects and coastal erosion -were all judged to be of moderate importance in most areas. All others were allocated only local importance. The analysis suggests that the major current drivers will still play the dominant role, augmented by climate change. Drivers and impacts intensities usually increase under the perspective of a more globalised world (scenario 1) and usually decrease through better management, mitigation and adaptation measures of scenarios 2 and 3. Under scenario 1, the eastern countries (Black Sea and Baltic Sea areas) are particularly prone to eutrophication and contamination impacts, as well as habitat and biodiversity loss, due to expansion of mass tourism eastwards, together with intensification of agriculture and aquaculture. Under scenario 2 more stringent regulations and management reduce environmental impacts. Under scenario 3 impacts are reduced through decentralisation, although this may also result in sub-optimal management (local fragmentation).

Habitat dynamics at the catchment – coast interface: contributions from ELOISE

“…Sea level rise is foreseen (Nunneri et al 2005) to lead to 'removal' or inland migration of sea cliffs, shingle beaches, sandy shores and salt marsh habitats due to enhanced erosion. These, therefore, will give way for aquatic habitats when natural re-alignment of the coast is impossible.…”

“…Major drivers of coastal change until 2050 have been identified by Turner (2005) and Nunneri et al (2005) as: climate change, expansion of built environments, trade, ports and related industry, tourism, fishing and aquaculture, and agriculture. These drivers act together, often synergistically, to cause environmental state change with ultimate consequences for coastal habitats.…”

“…The loss of coastal ice will also enhance coastal erosion at these higher latitudes. In the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, freshwater influxes are expected to decrease substantially (Nunneri et al 2005).…”

“…Klein 2005, Turner 2005). In response to these foreseen developments, by no means restricted to the coast, the EC has issued the Habitat Directive (92/43/EEC), a legal framework, currently under implementation, which aims to conserve a suite of natural habitats across Europe.…”

The ecological sustainability trigon – A proposed conceptual framework for creating and testing management scenarios

“…Of course, human population pressure is increasing directly as a result of population growth and the resultant increasing resource consumption and pollution related to the pursuit of satisfying Table 1 Environmental ideologies and sustainability perspectives (Nunneri et al, 2004;Turner et al, 2003;Turner, 2008 Table 2 Core questions for sustainability science (modified from Kates et al, 2001;Swart et al, 2004). …”