Growing threat of intense tropical cyclones to East Asia over the period 1977–2010

Park, Doo‐Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Joo-Hong

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/1/014008

Cited by 97 publications

(90 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…An upward trend in the proportion of intense typhoons (categories 4 and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) in the western North Pacific basin since the late 1970s has been reported in the literature (Elsner et al, 2008;Kossin et al, 2007;Mei et al, 2015;Webster et al, 2005;Wu & Wang, 2008;Wu & Zhao, 2012). The intense typhoons that made landfall in the East Asia increased (Mei & Xie, 2016;Park et al, 2011Park et al, , 2014. Although the maximum potential intensity (MPI) theory (Emanuel, 1987;Holland, 1997) and numerical modeling (Bender et al, 2010;Knutson et al, 1998;Knutson et al, 2013;Knutson & Tuleya, 2004;Oouchi et al, 2006) consistently project an intensity increase of tropical cyclones in a warming climate, the factors responsible for the increasing trend have not been convincingly identified.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Dominant Role of the Ocean Mixed Layer Depth in the Increased Proportion of Intense Typhoons During 1980–2015

Wang

Feng

2018

Earth's Future

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Over the past decade extensive studies have been undertaken to understand the increasing trend in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones (categories 4 and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The trend has been found globally and in some individual basins since the late 1970s. This study quantifies the contributions of various factors that control the proportion of intense typhoons. It is demonstrated that the increase of the proportion of intense typhoons during 1980-2015 is consistent with the corresponding changes in the ocean/atmosphere environment. The proportion change resulted from the temporal variations of the environmental parameters (sea surface temperature, ocean mixed layer depth, outflow temperature, and vertical wind shear), as well as the shifts of tropical cyclone prevailing tracks. The nonuniform spatial distribution of environmental parameters makes the shifts of tropical cyclone prevailing tracks contribute at least half the increase of the proportion of intense typhoons. The deepening of the ocean mixed layer resulting from the temporal variations and track shifts plays a dominant role in the observed increase of the proportion of intense typhoons. Although the maximum potential intensity theory and numerical modeling project an increase of tropical cyclone intensity in a warming climate, the effects of the temporal change of the ocean mixed layer depth and the prevailing track change were not taken into account in the projection. This study suggests that the increase of the proportion of intense typhoons in the western North Pacific basin could be larger than the projection in previous studies. Plain Language SummaryThe increasing trend in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones (categories 4 and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) has been found globally and in some individual basins since the late 1970s. Although extensive studies have been undertaken over the past decade, its attribution still is a subject of controversy. This study quantifies the contributions of various factors that control the proportion of intense typhoons in the western North Pacific and found that the increase of the proportion of intense typhoons during 1980-2015 is consistent with the corresponding changes in the ocean/atmosphere environment. The proportion change resulted from the temporal variations of the environmental parameters (sea surface temperature, ocean mixed layer depth, outflow temperature, and vertical wind shear), as well as the shifts of tropical cyclone prevailing tracks. The deepening of the ocean mixed layer resulting from the temporal variations and track shifts plays a dominant role in the observed increase of the proportion of intense typhoons. This study suggests that the tropical cyclone intensification could be larger than the projection since the change of the ocean mixed layer was not taken into account in previous studies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Dominant Role of the Ocean Mixed Layer Depth in the Increased Proportion of Intense Typhoons During 1980–2015

Wang

Feng

2018

Earth's Future

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“…The observed regional shifts in TC activity in the WNP basin in recent decades may have significant implication for landfalling TCs and associated impacts various countries in the WNP . Further studies are required to identify the possible causes and relative contribution of global climate change to these changes.…”

Section: Research Topics For the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…87,88 The observed regional shifts in TC activity in the WNP basin in recent decades may have significant implication for landfalling TCs and associated impacts various countries in the WNP. 197,198 Further studies are required to identify the possible causes and relative contribution of global climate change to these changes. Similarly, while climate models project more precipitation from TCs in the WNP (and globally) in the 21st century, observational studies and model simulations are required to assess the long-term variations of the total and extreme rainfall induced by TCs for different countries in the WNP (and globally) in the past and the 21st century.…”

Section: Confidence In Detection and Attribution Of Observed Changes mentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical cyclones and climate change

Walsh

McBride

Klotzbach

et al. 2015

WIREs Climate Change

571

435

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Recent research has strengthened the understanding of the links between climate and tropical cyclones (TCs) on various timescales. Geological records of past climates have shown century‐long variations in TC numbers. While no significant trends have been identified in the Atlantic since the late 19th century, significant observed trends in TC numbers and intensities have occurred in this basin over the past few decades, and trends in other basins are increasingly being identified. However, understanding of the causes of these trends is incomplete, and confidence in these trends continues to be hampered by a lack of consistent observations in some basins. A theoretical basis for maximum TC intensity appears now to be well established, but a climate theory of TC formation remains elusive. Climate models mostly continue to predict future decreases in global TC numbers, projected increases in the intensities of the strongest storms and increased rainfall rates. Sea level rise will likely contribute toward increased storm surge risk. Against the background of global climate change and sea level rise, it is important to carry out quantitative assessments on the potential risk of TC‐induced storm surge and flooding to densely populated cities and river deltas. Several climate models are now able to generate a good distribution of both TC numbers and intensities in the current climate. Inconsistent TC projection results emerge from modeling studies due to different downscaling methodologies and warming scenarios, inconsistencies in projected changes of large‐scale conditions, and differences in model physics and tracking algorithms. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:65–89. doi: 10.1002/wcc.371 This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Earth System Behavior

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“…Anthropogenic contributions to TC track changes have been reported (Colbert et al 2013;Park et al 2014;Kossin et al 2016). Also, it has been shown that interdecadal changes of TC tracks in the western North Pacific are associated with the 5 westward expansion of the subtropical northwestern Pacific high (Ho et al 2004).…”

Section: Summary and Disucssionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Track-dependency of tropical cyclone risk in South Korea

Nam¹,

Park²,

Ho³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. In tropical cyclone (TC) risk assessment, many of previous studies have attempted to construct the statistical relationship of TC damage and three risk elements-exposure, vulnerability, and hazard. For hazard parameters, central minimum pressure, maximum wind speed, and size have been widely utilized while the track was not mainly considered as one of critical hazard parameters. This study shows that, in a decision tree analysis for TCs that made landfall in South Korea during 1979-2010, track is the primary factor to predict damage occurrence. Small track deviations £ 250 km could 10 distinctively change the damage maps for South Korea. This significant track-dependency of TC risk exists because TC track is responsible for the realization of the other hazards developing from a potential to an active hazard, such as wind gusts or downpours at a given settlement. TC track determines the overall severity and spatial distribution of the active hazards by changing the combination of multiple factors: physical geography experience, duration of influence, and relative position of dangerous semicircle side of the TC. These results indicate that large uncertainty in future track projection may seriously 15 mislead future TC risk modeling because trivial track projection error alone can produce severe errors in damage projection even when TC frequency and intensity value is precise and accurate.

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Growing threat of intense tropical cyclones to East Asia over the period 1977–2010

Cited by 97 publications

References 44 publications

Dominant Role of the Ocean Mixed Layer Depth in the Increased Proportion of Intense Typhoons During 1980–2015

Dominant Role of the Ocean Mixed Layer Depth in the Increased Proportion of Intense Typhoons During 1980–2015

Tropical cyclones and climate change

Track-dependency of tropical cyclone risk in South Korea

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