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Recent research has strengthened the understanding of the links between climate and tropical cyclones (TCs) on various timescales. Geological records of past climates have shown century‐long variations in TC numbers. While no significant trends have been identified in the Atlantic since the late 19th century, significant observed trends in TC numbers and intensities have occurred in this basin over the past few decades, and trends in other basins are increasingly being identified. However, understanding of the causes of these trends is incomplete, and confidence in these trends continues to be hampered by a lack of consistent observations in some basins. A theoretical basis for maximum TC intensity appears now to be well established, but a climate theory of TC formation remains elusive. Climate models mostly continue to predict future decreases in global TC numbers, projected increases in the intensities of the strongest storms and increased rainfall rates. Sea level rise will likely contribute toward increased storm surge risk. Against the background of global climate change and sea level rise, it is important to carry out quantitative assessments on the potential risk of TC‐induced storm surge and flooding to densely populated cities and river deltas. Several climate models are now able to generate a good distribution of both TC numbers and intensities in the current climate. Inconsistent TC projection results emerge from modeling studies due to different downscaling methodologies and warming scenarios, inconsistencies in projected changes of large‐scale conditions, and differences in model physics and tracking algorithms. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:65–89. doi: 10.1002/wcc.371 This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Earth System Behavior

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The semiannual cycle is comparable in magnitude to the annual cycle over parts of the equatorial landmasses, but only a very small region reflects the twice-yearly crossing of the sun. Most of the semiannual cycle appears to be due to the influence of both the summer and the winter monsoon in the western part of the Maritime Continent where the annual cycle maximum occurs in fall. Analysis of the TRMM data reveals a structure whereby the boreal summer and winter monsoon rainfall regimes intertwine across the equator and both are strongly affected by the wind-terrain interaction. In particular the boreal winter regime extends far northward along the eastern flanks of the major island groups and landmasses.A hypothesis is presented to explain the asymmetric seasonal march in which the maximum convection follows a gradual southeastward progression path from the Asian 2 summer monsoon to the Asian winter monsoon but a sudden transition in the reverse. The hypothesis is based on the redistribution of mass between land and ocean areas during spring and fall that results from different land-ocean thermal memories. This mass redistribution between the two transition seasons produces sea-level patterns leading to asymmetric wind-terrain interactions throughout the region, and a low-level divergence asymmetry in the region that promote the southward march of maximum convection during boreal fall but opposes the northward march during boreal spring.3

Aim This paper reviews the biogeography of the Australian monsoon tropical biome to highlight general patterns in the distribution of a range of organisms and their environmental correlates and evolutionary history, as well as to identify knowledge gaps.Location Northern Australia, Australian Monsoon Tropics (AMT). The AMT is defined by areas that receive more than 85% of rainfall between November and April.Methods Literature is summarized, including the origin of the monsoon climate, present-day environment, biota and habitat types, and phylogenetic and geographical relationships of selected organisms.Results Some species are widespread throughout the AMT while others are narrow-range endemics. Such contrasting distributions correspond to presentday climates, hydrologies (particularly floodplains), geological features (such as sandstone plateaux), fire regimes, and vegetation types (ranging from rain forest to savanna). Biogeographical and phylogenetic studies of terrestrial plants (e.g. eucalypts) and animals (vertebrates and invertebrates) suggest that distinct bioregions within the AMT reflect the aggregated effects of landscape and environmental history, although more research is required to determine and refine the boundaries of biogeographical zones within the AMT. Phylogenetic analyses of aquatic organisms (fishes and prawns) suggest histories of associations with drainage systems, dispersal barriers, links to New Guinea, and the existence of Lake Carpentaria, now submerged by the Gulf of Carpentaria. Complex adaptations to the landscape and climate in the AMT are illustrated by a number of species.Main conclusions The Australian monsoon is a component of a single global climate system, characterized by a dominant equator-spanning Hadley cell. Evidence of hot, seasonally moist climates dates back to the Late Eocene, implying that certain endemic elements of the AMT biota have a long history. Vicariant differentiation is inferred to have separated the Kimberley and Arnhem Land bioregions from Cape York Peninsula/northern Queensland. Such older patterns are overlaid by younger events, including dispersal from Southeast Asia, and range expansions and contractions. Future palaeoecological and phylogenetic investigations will illuminate the evolution of the AMT biome. Understanding the biogeography of the AMT is essential to provide a framework for ecological studies and the sustainable development of the region.