Tropical cyclones and climate change

Knutson, Thomas R.; McBride, John L.; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Emanuel, Kerry; Holland, Greg J.; Landsea, Chris; Held, Isaac M.; Kossin, James P.; Srivastava, Arvind K.; Sugi, Masato

doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Cited by 2,704 publications

(1,836 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The observed DIN yield could logically be higher, thus the coefficient e should be adjusted to a higher value than the calibrated value, for example in 1991 and 1993. Global climate change is likely to increase the number of heavy storms (Knutson et al, 2010;Webster et al, 2005;Wu et al, 2005), and in the Jiulong River it seems runoff has shown a greater fluctuation in the recent decade (Fig. 7).…”

Section: Processes Affecting Modeling Of Nitrogen Export and Uncertaimentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling increased riverine nitrogen export: Source tracking and integrated watershed-coast management

Yan

Chen

et al. 2015

Marine Pollution Bulletin

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The global NEWS model was calibrated and then used to quantify the long term trend of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export from two tributaries of Jiulong River (SE China). Anthropogenic N inputs contributed 61-92% of river DIN yield which increased from 337 in 1980s to 1662 kg N km −2 yr −1 in 2000s for the North River, and from 653 to 3097 kg N km −2 yr −1 for the West River. North River and West River contributed 55% and 45% respectively of DIN loading to the estuary. Rapid development and poor management driven by national policies were responsible for increasing riverine N export. Scenario analysis and source tracking suggest that reductions of anthropogenic N inputs of at least 30% in the North River (emphasis on fertilizer and manure) and 50% in the West River (emphasis on fertilizer) could significantly improve water quality and mitigate eutrophication in both river and coastal waters.

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Section: Processes Affecting Modeling Of Nitrogen Export and Uncertaimentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling increased riverine nitrogen export: Source tracking and integrated watershed-coast management

Yan

Chen

et al. 2015

Marine Pollution Bulletin

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“…This limits the confident evaluation of proposed linkages between observed trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment [4][5] . Here we mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively insensitive to past data uncertainty, and we identify a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude where tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity (LMI) over the past 30 years.…”

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confidence: 99%

The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity

Kossin

Emanuel

Vecchi

2014

Nature

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594

443

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“…The present study demonstrated that three out four of the studied species are sensitive to extreme climate conditions such as adverse weather (i.e. tropical storms), which are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in the next decades [86, 87]. Also, we demonstrate that the combination of environmental conditions, such as increased sea surface temperature, reduced biological productivity and adverse weather, is affecting seabird mortality at tropical sites.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 54%

“…Reduced foraging success may lead these organisms to starvation and may, subsequently, increase the risk of mortality [89]. As a consequence of climate change, tropical storms are becoming more frequent and intense [87, 90, 91]. These events may increase seabird mortality in the future, with negative consequences for species with declining populations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental Predictors of Seabird Wrecks in a Tropical Coastal Area

2016

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Beached bird surveys have been widely used to monitor the impact of oil pollution in the oceans. However, separating the combined effects of oil pollution, environmental variables and methodological aspects of beach monitoring on seabird stranding patterns is a challenging task. The effects of a comprehensive set of oceanographic and climatic variables and oil pollution on seabird strandings in a tropical area of Brazil were investigated herein, using two robust and innovative methods: Generalized Linear Mixed Models and Structural Equation Modeling. We assessed strandings of four resident seabird species along 480 km of beaches divided into 11 sampling areas, between November 2010 and September 2013. We found that increasing the distance from the nearest breeding island reduce the seabird stranding events. Storm activity and biological productivity were the most important factors affecting the stranding events of brown boobies Sula leucogaster, Cabot’s terns Thalasseus acuflavidus and kelp gulls Larus dominicanus. These species are also indirectly affected by warm tropical waters, which reduce chlorophyll-a concentrations. Beach surveys are, thus, useful to investigate the mortality rates of resident species near breeding sites, where individuals are more abundant and exposed to local factors associated with at-sea mortality. In contrast, conservation actions and monitoring programs for far-ranging seabird species are needed in more distant foraging areas. Furthermore, beach monitoring programs investigating the impact of oil pollution on seabirds need to account for the effects of environmental factors on stranding patterns. The present study also demonstrated that seabirds inhabiting tropical coastal waters are sensitive to climate conditions such as adverse weather, which are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in next decades.

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Tropical cyclones and climate change

Cited by 2,704 publications

References 47 publications

Modeling increased riverine nitrogen export: Source tracking and integrated watershed-coast management

Modeling increased riverine nitrogen export: Source tracking and integrated watershed-coast management

The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity

Environmental Predictors of Seabird Wrecks in a Tropical Coastal Area

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