Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part IV: Towards Economic Estimations of Climate-Related Damages from the Bifurcation Analysis Viewpoint

Abstract

The paper completes the cycle of the research devoted to the development of the experimental bifurcation analysis (not computer simulations) in order to answer the following questions: whether qualitative changes occur in the dynamics of local climate systems in a centennial timescale?; how to analyze such qualitative changes with daily resolution for local and regional space-scales?; how to establish one-to-one daily correspondence between the dynamics evolution and economic consequences for productions? To answer the questions, the unconventional conceptual model to describe the local climate dynamics was proposed and verified in the previous parts. That model (HDS-model) originates from the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization and has a variable structure due to competition between the amplitude quantization and the time quantization. The main advantage of the HDS-model is connected with the possibility to describe “internally” (on the basis of the self-regulation) the specific causal effects observed in the dynamics of local climate systems instead of “external” description of three states of the hysteresis behavior of climate systems (upper, lower and transient states). As a result, the evolution of the local climate dynamics is based on the bifurcation diagrams built by processing the data of meteorological observations, where the strange effects of the essential interannual daily variability of annual temperature variation are taken into account and explained. It opens the novel possibilities to analyze the local climate dynamics taking into account the observed resultant of all internal and external influences on each local climate system. In particular, the paper presents the viewpoint on how to estimate economic damages caused by climate-related hazards through the bifurcation analysis. That viewpoint includes the following ideas: practically each local climate system is characterized by its own time pattern of the natural qualitative changes in temperature dynamics over a century, so, any unified time window to determine the local climatic norms seems to be questionable; the temperature limits determined for climate-related technological hazards should be reasoned by the conditions of artificial human activity, but not by the climatic norms; the damages caused by such hazards can be approximately estimated in relation to the average annual profit of each production. Now, it becomes possible to estimate the minimal and maximal numbers of the specified hazards per year in order, first of all, to avoid unforeseen latent damages. Also, it becomes possible to make some useful relative estimation concerning damage and profit. We believe that the results presented in the cycle illustrate great practical competence of the current advances in the experimental bifurcation analysis. In particular, the developed QHS-analysis provides the novel prospects towards both how to adapt production to climatic changes and how to compensate negative technological impacts on environment.

Observations-Based Computational Analytics on Local Climate Dynamics. Part 2: Seasonality

“…Here the increase in wintry, spring, summer and autumnal average temperatures occurs, where the corresponding total temperature changes per season are summarized in Fig.2c. Once further specification occurs, tendencies are not so clear [3,18]. For example, let us compare monthly ATVunits over three successive time windows ( Fig.2d): 1901-1930 years; 1931-1960 years; 1961-1990 years.…”

“…Per se, it seems to be impossible to imagine the contemporary climatology without IT-support in relation to collecting, digitizing, processing, transferring, storing, transmitting, converting and estimating climate data series [1]. Moreover, the point on enough IT-support becomes extremely pressing due to the combination between the inertia in official analytical methods and the observed increase in climate abnormalities [2,3]. Why it occurs?…”

Determination of the preliminary phase of the facility destruction based on the resistance-acoustic method of control

“…Mechanical stresses in metals depend directly and essentially on temperature impacts, including temperature oscillations. In that connection, the recent climate changes can consider as additional factors of risk, because of latent qualitative changes in local climate dynamics can introduce essential corrections in economic estimations of climate-related damages [12]. In particular, variable patterns of space heterogeneities of annual warming-cooling cycles [13] and abrupt temperature shifts within interseasonal hysteresis regularities [14] are typical for Vladimir region, where our experimental tests are made.…”

Application of a phase-measuring method in the inclinometric systems of geotechnical monitoring

“…In particular, variable patterns of space heterogeneities of annual warmingcooling cycles [5] and abrupt temperature shifts within interseasonal hysteresis regularities [6] are typical for the Vladimir Region, where our experimental tests are made. Such qualitative changes in local climate dynamics introduce essential corrections in economic estimations of climate-related damages [7].…”