Summary Glycated haemoglobin could offer several practical advantages over the OGTT for assessing glucose metabolism. Initial cross-sectional studies (1983)(1984)(1985) on 381 subjects (mostly Pima Indians) described the relationship between HbAlc (a specific glycated Hb) and the OGTT. We performed follow-up OGTTs and HbA~c measurements on 257 of these same subjects 1.6-6.1 years later. Subjects were again grouped according to both the result of the OGTT (normal, IGT or diabetes, by WHO criteria) and HbA~ result (normal or elevated based on mean + 1.96 SD of normal). Of 66 subjects with IGT at baseline, 47 (71%) had normal HbAlo and 19 (29 % ) had elevated HbAlo. Twentysix (39 %) of these subjects had diabetes at follow-up. Of these subjects with IGT, a significantly greater percentage of subjects with elevated HbAlc at baseline (68 %) showed worsening to diabetes than those with a normal HbAlo (28%); (chi-square =7.8, dr= 1, p < 0.01). Thus, in subjects with IGT, glycated Hb may be a useful predictor of progression to diabetes. [Diabetologia (1994) 37: 252-256] Key words Follow-up study, glycated Hb, HbA~ c, IGT, Pima Indians.The OGTT is often used to diagnose diabetes mellitus as well as to detect more mildly impaired carbohydrate metabolism. Measurement of glycated Hb has been suggested as an alternative to the OGTT for assessing glucose metabolism [1][2][3][4]. The concentration of glycated Hb is increased within erythrocytes of patients in proportion to the degree of chronic hyperglycaemia; it is an indirect measure of the average blood glucose concentration over the previous 2 to 3 months [3]. Glycated Hb is widely used for monitoring long-term glycaemic control in known diabetic patients [5][6][7][8], and the prognostic value of glycated Hb has been investigated in a longitudinal study design of patients with normal glucose tolerance [9]. Measurement of glycated Hb offers some practical advantages over the OGTT; it is not influenced by time of day, recent activity levels, metabolic stress, or food intake [7]. Only minimal patient cooperation is required before and during the test, and only one small blood sample is required.Our initial cross-sectional studies [4] described the relationship between HbAlc, a specific glycated Hb, and OGTT. In 381 subjects (mostly Pima Indians) from a population with a high prevalence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, HbA~c had high specificity and moderate sensitivity as a screening test for diabetes defined by the OGTT using WHO criteria [4]. Here we re-examine these same individuals 1 to 6 years later to investigate the prognostic value of glycated Hb. By using both OGTT and glycated Hb results, we attempted to identify, among a group of high risk subjects, those who are at greatest risk of developing diabetes.