To improve drawback of existing modulation method, in this paper, we propose the channel forecast method using adaptive modulation which can improve throughput of channel. This method adaptively changes modulation method to the change of channel environments. In proposed method, channel's characteristics are measured in realtime to determine code rate to the changes of demanded channel's bit error rate. If bit error rate is increased, this method reduce code rate to maintain maximum throughput. We analysis performance of proposed method by Matlab.