Extreme heat, drought and moisture excess are increasingly co-occurring within a single growing season, impacting crop yields in global breadbasket regions. In this Review, we synthesize understanding of compound heat and moisture extremes, their impacts on global crop yields and implications for adaptation. Heat and moisture extremes and their impacts become compounded through crop-physiological interactions, heat-moisture couplings in the climate system and crop-atmosphere interactions. Since around 2000, these compound extremes, and hot droughts in particular, have been linked to especially poor harvests (up to 30% yield losses) in regions such as India, Ethiopia, the USA, Europe and Russia. However, in some cases, combinations of crop stresses might generate compensating effects. Compound extremes are projected to increase in frequency and amplitude in the future, but, owing to the biophysical interdependence among temperature, water and crop physiology, the net yield effects of such future compound extremes remain uncertain. Accordingly, compound extremes will necessitate comprehensive agricultural adaptation strategies geared towards multi-stress resilience, as adaptations that work for single climate stresses could be maladaptive under combined stresses. An integrated understanding of heat and water in soil-plant-atmosphere dynamics is urgently needed to understand risks and suitably adapt cropping systems to compounding climate impacts.
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Compound extreme and crop impact dynamicsClimate impacts on crops can be compounded via three primary modes (Fig. 1). First, interactions among crop-physiological responses to different aspects of climate can worsen or ameliorate the ultimate yield effect (Fig. 1, green boxes). Second, heat-moisture interactions in the climate system can generate or amplify compound extremes, such as Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author selfarchiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.