Abstract. Trafficability in forest terrain is largely determined by ground-bearing capacity and it is thus one of the most important issues in timber harvesting. In winter, the bearing capacity is mainly determined by soil frost. Particularly on peatland 10 forests bearing capacity is poor under unfrozen conditions. The bearing capacity of forest truck roads is similarly affected by ground frost. Already 20 cm thick layer of frozen soil or 40 cm layer of snow on the ground can carry in Finnish forest conditions heavy machines in forest harvesting. In this work, we studied the impacts of climate change on soil frost conditions, and consequently on ground-bearing capacity of soils from the timber harvesting point of view. The number of days with good wintertime bearing capacity was modelled by using a soil temperature model and wide set of downscaled climate model data 15 until the end of the 21st century. The model was optimized for different forest and soil types. The results show that by the mid21st century, the wintertime bearing season length decreases in Finland most likely by about one month. The decrease in soil frost and wintertime bearing capacity will be more pronounced during the latter half of the century when drained peatlands may virtually lack soil frost in most of winters in southern and western Finland. The projected decrease in the bearing capacity, accompanied with increasing demand for wood harvesting from drained peatlands, induces a clear need for the development 20 of new sustainable and efficient logging practices for drained peatlands.