Has the climate been changing in Turkey? Regional climate change signals based on a comparative statistical analysis of two consecutive time periods, 1950-1980 and 1981-2010

Türkeş, Murat; Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan; Batmaz, İnci; İyigün, Cem; Koç, Elçin Kartal; Fahmi, Fidan M.; Aslan, Sipan

doi:10.3354/cr01410

Cited by 30 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…This increase is in agreement with the general global warming and with findings from climate-related studies [2,58,59]. Such a temperature increase may contribute to the rise of water needs for irrigation.…”

Section: Meteorological Analysissupporting

confidence: 79%

DInSAR-Based Detection of Land Subsidence and Correlation with Groundwater Depletion in Konya Plain, Turkey

et al. 2017

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Abstract:In areas where groundwater overexploitation occurs, land subsidence triggered by aquifer compaction is observed, resulting in high socio-economic impacts for the affected communities. In this paper, we focus on the Konya region, one of the leading economic centers in the agricultural and industrial sectors in Turkey. We present a multi-source data approach aimed at investigating the complex and fragile environment of this area which is heavily affected by groundwater drawdown and ground subsidence. In particular, in order to analyze the spatial and temporal pattern of the subsidence process we use the Small BAseline Subset DInSAR technique to process two datasets of ENVISAT SAR images spanning the 2002-2010 period. The produced ground deformation maps and associated time-series allow us to detect a wide land subsidence extending for about 1200 km 2 and measure vertical displacements reaching up to 10 cm in the observed time interval. DInSAR results, complemented with climatic, stratigraphic and piezometric data as well as with land-cover changes information, allow us to give more insights on the impact of climate changes and human activities on groundwater resources depletion and land subsidence.

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Section: Meteorological Analysissupporting

confidence: 79%

DInSAR-Based Detection of Land Subsidence and Correlation with Groundwater Depletion in Konya Plain, Turkey

et al. 2017

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“…Strong observational evidence of a long-term drought in the Fertile Crescent was shown for the 2007-2009 period in the study of Trigo et al [12]. Türkeş et al [15] reported significant changes in the temperature pattern over the coasts of the Black Sea and the eastern Anatolia where the headwaters of the Euphrates and Tigris basin (ETB) are located. They also found that the average precipitation increased by 1.9 mm per month from 1950-1980 to 1981-2010 for these areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Several studies point out that the climate of the Near East region has been changing during recent decades (e.g., [12][13][14][15][16]). In the current era, the year 2007 was an important milestone for the region in terms of water resources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiple Remotely Sensed Lines of Evidence for a Depleting Seasonal Snowpack in the Near East

2019

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The snow-fed river basins of the Near East region are facing an urgent threat in the form of declining water resources. In this study, we analyzed several remote sensing products (optical, passive microwave, and gravimetric) and outputs of a meteorological reanalysis data set to understand the relationship between the terrestrial water storage anomalies and the mountain snowpack. The results from different satellite retrievals show a clear signal of a depletion of both water storage and the seasonal snowpack in four basins in the region. We find a strong reduction in terrestrial water storage over the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observational period, particularly over the higher elevations. Snow-cover duration estimates from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products point towards negative and significant trends up to one month per decade in the current era. These numbers are a clear indicator of the partial disappearance of the seasonal snow-cover in the region which has been projected to occur by the end of the century. The spatial patterns of changes in the snow-cover duration are positively correlated with both GRACE terrestrial water storage decline and peak snow water equivalent (SWE) depletion from the ERA5 reanalysis. Possible drivers of the snowpack depletion are a significant reduction in the snowfall ratio and an earlier snowmelt. A continued depletion of the montane snowpack in the Near East paints a bleak picture for future water availability in this water-stressed region.

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“…When the long‐term average annual and monthly total precipitation trends in Turkey are analysed a declining trend can be seen (Partal & Kahya, 2006). However, since 1980, there has been an increase in precipitation in the northern and eastern parts of the country, while a decrease has been observed in the centre, south and west (Türkeş et al, 2016). According to regional climate model results, long term decreases in daily precipitation are expected in western and southern regions of Turkey where Mediterranean climates dominate (T. Ozturk, Türkeş, & Kurnaz, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What about reservoirs? Questioning anthropogenic and climatic interferences on water availability

Akbaş

Freer

Özdemir

et al. 2020

Hydrological Processes

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Water resources in semi-arid regions like the Mediterranean Basin are highly vulnerable because of the high variability of weather systems. Additionally, climate change is altering the timing and pattern of water availability in a region where growing populations are placing extra demands on water supplies. Importantly, how reservoirs and dams have an influence on the amount of water resources available is poorly quantified. Therefore, we examine the impact of reservoirs on water resources together with the impact of climate change in a semi-arid Mediterranean catchment. We simulated the Susurluk basin (23.779-km 2) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We generate results for with (RSV) and without reservoirs (WRSV) scenarios. We run simulations for current and future conditions using dynamically downscaled outputs of the MPI-ESM-MR general circulation model under two greenhouse gas relative concentration pathways (RCPs) in order to reveal the coupled effect of reservoir and climate impacts. Water resources were then converted to their usagesblue water (water in aquifers and rivers), green water storage (water in the soil) and green water flow (water losses by evaporation and transpiration). The results demonstrate that all water resources except green water flow are projected to decrease under all RCPs compared to the reference period, both long-term and at seasonal scales. However, while water scarcity is expected in the future, reservoir storage is shown to be adequate to overcome this problem. Nevertheless, reservoirs reduce the availability of water, particularly in soil moisture stores, which increases the potential for drought by reducing streamflow. Furthermore, reservoirs cause water losses through evaporation from their open surfaces. We conclude that pressures to protect society from economic damage by building reservoirs have a strong impact on the fluxes of watersheds.

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Has the climate been changing in Turkey? Regional climate change signals based on a comparative statistical analysis of two consecutive time periods, 1950-1980 and 1981-2010

Abstract: Table S1. Observation periods as and proportion of missing observations of all stations used in the study. Station number Station name Establishment date (dd.mm.yy) Closing dates Proportion missing for precipitation data Proportion missing for temperature data Bartin 01.

Cited by 30 publications

References 61 publications

DInSAR-Based Detection of Land Subsidence and Correlation with Groundwater Depletion in Konya Plain, Turkey

DInSAR-Based Detection of Land Subsidence and Correlation with Groundwater Depletion in Konya Plain, Turkey

Multiple Remotely Sensed Lines of Evidence for a Depleting Seasonal Snowpack in the Near East

What about reservoirs? Questioning anthropogenic and climatic interferences on water availability

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