Multiple Remotely Sensed Lines of Evidence for a Depleting Seasonal Snowpack in the Near East

Yılmaz, Yeliz; Aalstad, Kristoffer; Şen, Ömer Lütfi

doi:10.3390/rs11050483

Cited by 19 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 97 publications

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“…In addition, the increased discharge in early winter resulted in a shift in the timing of the discharge peak (1-3 weeks earlier, February instead of March) compared to the baseline simulations ( Figure 8a). These results are consistent with previous studies (e.g., [13,[86][87][88][89][90]. For instance, the studies related to precipitation and discharge change, based on regional climate scenario simulations over the upper Euphrates-Tigris basin, indicate that shifting in snowmelt timing for the future period would have significant implications on the discharge response ( Figure 8a) and therefore on water management [13,87].…”

Section: Discharge Prediction Under Future Climate Conditionssupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Another study based on observations from streamflow stations for the same region shows that the peak flow timing shifts earlier because of the snowpack decline for the period of 1970-2010 [89]. In addition, recent remote sensing analysis over the transboundary basins of the Near East region demonstrated that snowpack depletion is highly evident for most of the region [90].…”

Section: Discharge Prediction Under Future Climate Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Modelling of the Discharge Response to Climate Change under RCP8.5 Scenario in the Alata River Basin (Mersin, SE Turkey)

Yıldırım

Güler

Önol

et al. 2021

Water

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This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response of a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment using a hydrological model. The effect of climate change on the discharge of the Alata River Basin in Mersin province (Turkey) was assessed under the worst-case climate change scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), using the semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). First, the model was evaluated temporally and spatially and has been shown to reproduce the measured discharge consistently. Second, the discharge was predicted under climate projections in three distinct future periods (i.e., 2021–2040, 2046–2065 and 2081–2100, reflecting the beginning, middle and end of the century, respectively). Climate change projections showed that the annual mean temperature in the Alata River Basin rises for the beginning, middle and end of the century, with about 1.35, 2.13 and 4.11 °C, respectively. Besides, the highest discharge timing seems to occur one month earlier (February instead of March) compared to the baseline period (2000–2011) in the beginning and middle of the century. The results show a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature in all future projections, resulting in more snowmelt and higher discharge generation in the beginning and middle of the century scenarios. However, at the end of the century, the discharge significantly decreased due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced snow depth in the upstream area. The findings of this study can help develop efficient climate change adaptation options in the Levant’s coastal areas.

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Section: Discharge Prediction Under Future Climate Conditionssupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Discharge Prediction Under Future Climate Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Modelling of the Discharge Response to Climate Change under RCP8.5 Scenario in the Alata River Basin (Mersin, SE Turkey)

Yıldırım

Güler

Önol

et al. 2021

Water

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“…This water-limited region is largely covered by deserts and shows arid to semi-arid characteristics, which are associated with the domination of subtropical high-pressure system shaped by the descending branch of the Hadley cell (Sahin et al, 2015;Sen et al, 2019). The Taurus and Zagros mountains are parts of the NE's water towers, and due to the presence of snowpack in high-elevation regions (>2,000 m), they feed two important rivers of Mesopotamia, the Euphrates and Tigris (Yilmaz et al, 2019) (Figure 1). According to Viviroli et al (2007), the relative water yield, which is a measure of the disproportionality of mountain runoff to lowland runoff, is high for the Euphrates-Tigris Basin.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of African Atmospheric Rivers on Precipitation and Snowmelt in the Near East's Highlands

et al. 2021

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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are important components of the global water cycle as they are responsible for over 90% of the poleward moisture transport at midlatitudes (Zhu & Newell, 1998). Estimations indicate that a typical AR over the North Pacific could carry much more water than some of the world's largest rivers (e.g., Ralph & Dettinger, 2011; Ralph et al., 2017). Three to five ARs are present in each hemisphere at any moment (Zhu & Newell, 1998), and they mostly prevail over the extratropical oceans, where they gain vast amounts of water vapor, and primarily make landfall on the western coasts of the midlatitude continents as a result of westerly flow (Guan & Waliser, 2015). In this respect, the mountainous western coasts of North Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) traveling thousands of kilometers over arid North Africa could interact with the highlands of the Near East (NE), and thus affect the region's hydrometeorology and water resources. Here, we use a state-of-the-art AR tracking database, and reanalysis and observational datasets to investigate the climatology (1979-2017) and influences of these ARs in snowmelt season (March-April). The Red Sea and northeast Africa are found to be the major source regions of these ARs, which are typically associated with the eastern Mediterranean trough positioned over the Balkan Peninsula and a blocking anticyclone over the NE-Caspian region, triggering southwesterly air flow toward the NE's highlands. Approximately 8% of the ARs are relatively strong (integrated water vapor transport >∼275 kg m −1 s −1). AR days exhibit enhanced precipitation over the crescent-shaped orography of the NE region. Mean AR days indicate wetter (up to + 2 mm day −1) and warmer (up to + 1.5°C) conditions than all-day climatology. On AR days, while snowpack tends to decrease (up to 30%) in the Zagros Mountains, it can show decreases or increases in the Taurus Mountains depending largely on elevation. A further analysis with the observations and reanalysis indicates that extreme ARs coinciding with large scale sensible heat transport can significantly increase the daily discharges. These results suggest that ARs can have notable impacts on the hydrometeorology and water resources of the region, particularly of lowland Mesopotamia, a region that is famous with great floods in the ancient narratives. Plain Language Summary Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are important components of the global water cycle as they are responsible for over 90% of the poleward moisture transport at middle to high latitudes. ARs mostly prevail over the oceans and primarily landfall on the western coasts of the midlatitude continents as a result of westerly flow of the midlatitudes. Apart from the large ocean basins, certain ARs can develop and propagate over continents, which has received less scientific attention. In this respect, this study aims to show how overland African ARs developing in the snowmelt season can influence the Near East's highlands, which are essential for satisfying the water need of lowland areas of M...

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“…Another driver of the increasing aridity is the dwindling snow cover due to the reduction in the snowfall ratio and earlier spring snowmelt in Türkiye. Concerning basins influenced by snow, several studies report a general decrease in snow amounts and increasing snowmelt for Türkiye, implying a contribution that could influence changes in drought indices in the future (Özgür & Koçak, 2019; Sönmez et al, 2014; Yılmaz et al, 2019). For instance, results from multiple remote sensing products showed a strong relationship between significant water loss and snow cover decline between 2002 and 2018 in the Euphrates‐Dicle, Kura‐Aras, Çoruh and Van basins.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate model projections of aridity patterns in Türkiye: A comprehensive analysis using CMIP6 models and three aridity indices

Yavaşlı,

Erlat

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Climate change can alter the spatial and temporal distribution of aridity around the world through a combination of factors such as reduced precipitation, rising temperatures and decreased evapotranspiration. Especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change due to a significant reduction in precipitation compared to other land regions in all climate models operated under different scenarios. Despite numerous studies on aridity trends, few have focused specifically on Türkiye and considered a comprehensive range of aridity indices and scenarios. This study aims to fill this research gap by providing a more detailed understanding of future aridity trends in Türkiye under various climate change scenarios and using multiple aridity indices. A novelty of this study lies in the simultaneous examination of three aridity indices (PCI, EAI and UNEP AI) for Türkiye, allowing for a more comprehensive assessment of future aridity trends. Furthermore, this study considers three future time periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100) and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate the potential range of climate change impacts on aridity in Türkiye. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to determine the changes in aridity conditions in Türkiye until the end of the 21st century. We used three aridity indices: the Pinna combinative index, the Erinç aridity index and the UNEP aridity index. These indices were calculated for the baseline period of 1981–2010 using gridded data (CHELSA) and for the periods of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 using three climate models (GFDL‐ESM4, MRI‐ESM2‐0 and IPSL‐CM6A‐LR) and multi‐model means with three SSPs to represent different future scenarios. The results showed that all three indices indicate an increase in dry climate conditions in Türkiye after 2041, with particularly notable increases expected in Central Anatolia, Southeastern Anatolia and parts of the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as eastern parts of Eastern Anatolia and the inner Aegean region. Under the SSP3‐7.0 scenario, the expansion of semi‐arid and arid areas is predicted to cover more than 30% of the country by the end of the century (2071–2100). This increase in aridity could increase the region's vulnerability to climate change and the risk of desertification, which should be taken into consideration in national water management and planning.

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Multiple Remotely Sensed Lines of Evidence for a Depleting Seasonal Snowpack in the Near East

Cited by 19 publications

References 97 publications

Modelling of the Discharge Response to Climate Change under RCP8.5 Scenario in the Alata River Basin (Mersin, SE Turkey)

Modelling of the Discharge Response to Climate Change under RCP8.5 Scenario in the Alata River Basin (Mersin, SE Turkey)

Influence of African Atmospheric Rivers on Precipitation and Snowmelt in the Near East's Highlands

Climate model projections of aridity patterns in Türkiye: A comprehensive analysis using CMIP6 models and three aridity indices

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