Have there been recent changes in climate? Ask the fish

McFarlane, Gordon A.; King, Jacquelynne R.; Beamish, Richard

doi:10.1016/s0079-6611(00)00034-3

Cited by 214 publications

(161 citation statements)

References 24 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

151

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The general scientific literature contains a bewildering diversity of methods that in a widest sense correspond to change-point detection, either in time or space (Box 3). In this review we contend that terms like regime shift [10,14] (Box 4) or the combination of different climatic indices related to Pacific fisheries into a single one [28].…”

Section: Detecting Thresholds and Regime Shifts In Ecological Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological thresholds and regime shifts: approaches to identification

Andersen

Carstensen²,

Hernández-Garcı́a

et al. 2009

Trends in Ecology & Evolution

665

519

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

There is an apparent gap between the prominence of present theoretical frameworks involving ecological thresholds and regime shifts, and the paucity of efforts to conduct simple tests and quantitative inferences on the actual appearance of such phenomena in ecological data. There is a wide range of statistical methods and analytical techniques now available that render these questions tractable, some of them even dating half a century back. Yet, their application has been sparse and confined within a narrow subset of cases of ecological regime shifts. Our objective is to raise awareness on the range of techniques available, and to their principles and limitations, in order to promote a more operational approach to the analysis of ecological thresholds and regime shifts. The observation that managed ecosystems often fail to respond smoothly to changing pressures has generated perplexity and eventually lead researchers to draw parallels between the behaviour of ecological systems and other complex systems with non-linear dynamics, such as the global climate, the human immune system, and the world economy (cf.[1] for a popular account). Initial reports of kelp forest disturbance and recovery [2], freshwater ecosystem shifts engineered by beavers [3], and vegetation shifts affected by fire [4] have lead on to an ever-growing research effort on ECOLOGICAL THRESHOLDS and REGIME SHIFTS (see Glossary), whose underlying theoretical framework [5,6] (Box 1) has been shown to be applicable to a broad range of ecosystems from coral reefs to forests and lakes [7,8]. These concepts are now also making their way into the minds and discussions of policy makers and might soon be translated into legislative frameworks [9].Ecological regime shifts can be defined as abrupt changes on several trophic levels [10], leading to rapid ecosystem reconfiguration between alternative states. These shifts are generally thought to be driven by external perturbations (e.g. climatic fluctuations, overexploitation, eutrophication, and invasive species), but the exact mechanism is often unclear. The subject has become a fast growing scientific discipline, manifested by a 12-fold increase in publications between 1991 and 2006, twice as fast as the growth rate of research effort in ecology as a whole (7.7 % year -1 , ISI Web of Science). Most of the reported cases of ecological regime shifts are inferred from time series of monitoring data, while direct evidence by controlled experiments of the existence of alternative states is difficult to find [11]. Surprisingly, the general techniques available to test for regime shifts and thresholds have only to a limited extent been applied to these data sets. As formal tests of regime shifts have a long history in the context of climate change research (e.g. that formal statistical tests for ecological regime shifts have mostly been restricted to the effects of climate change on marine communities [13]. These observations suggest that there is a need to increase the awareness of ecologists on the availability...

show abstract

Section: Detecting Thresholds and Regime Shifts In Ecological Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological thresholds and regime shifts: approaches to identification

Andersen

Carstensen²,

Hernández-Garcı́a

et al. 2009

Trends in Ecology & Evolution

665

519

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Finney et al, 2000;McFarlane et al, 2000, MacKenzie & Koster 2004. Among the species potentially sensitive to global warming (De Young et al, 2004), the migratory Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar, Salmonidae) provides an opportunity for a case study because of its broad distribution on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean and its sensitivity to environmental effects, particularly temperature (Mills, 1991).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate change and human-mediated introgression on southern European Atlantic salmon populations

Hórreo

Machado‐Schiaffino

Ayllón

et al. 2010

Global Change Biology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study focuses on temporal changes in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations from the vulnerable periphery of the species range (northern Spain). Using microsatellite markers to assess population structuring and introgression of exogenous genes in four different temporal samples collected across 20 years, we have determined the relative weights of climate and stocking practices in shaping contemporary regional population genetic patterns. Climate, represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, was identified as the main factor for determining the level of population genetic differentiation. Populations within the region have become homogenized through gene flow enhanced by straying of adult salmon from natal rivers and subsequent interchange of genes among rivers due to warmer temperatures. At the same time, and in line with documented changes in stock transfer strategies, evidence of genetic introgression from past stock transfers has decreased throughout the study period, becoming a secondary factor in erasing population structuring. The ability to disentangle the effects of climatic changes and anthropogenic factors (fisheries management practices) is essential for effective long-term conservation of this iconic species. We emphasize the importance of evaluating all factors which may be linked to stocking practices in vulnerable species, particularly those sensitive to climate change.

show abstract

“…Indices of winter atmospheric and oceanic conditions, in conjunction with other parameters of ecosystems, have been used to identify shifts in climatic forcing and ecosystem response at decadal time scales (e.g., Trenberth and Hurrell, 1995;Mantua et al, 1997;Francis et al, 1998;Springer, 1998;Hare and Mantua, 2000;McFarlane et al, 2000;Hollowed et al, 2001). Two of these so-called ''regime shifts'' have been identified in the past 30 years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem

Hunt

Stabeno

Walters

et al. 2002

Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography

501

385

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We propose a new hypothesis, the Oscillating Control Hypothesis (OCH), which predicts that pelagic ecosystem function in the southeastern Bering Sea will alternate between primarily bottom-up control in cold regimes and primarily top-down control in warm regimes. The timing of spring primary production is determined predominately by the timing of ice retreat. Late ice retreat (late March or later) leads to an early, ice-associated bloom in cold water (e.g., 1995, 1997, 1999), whereas no ice, or early ice retreat before mid-March, leads to an open-water bloom in May or June in warm water (e.g., 1996, 1998, 2000). Zooplankton populations are not closely coupled to the spring bloom, but are sensitive to water temperature. In years when the spring bloom occurs in cold water, low temperatures limit the production of zooplankton, the survival of larval/juvenile fish, and their recruitment into the populations of species of large piscivorous fish, such as walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias). When continued over decadal scales, this will lead to bottom-up limitation and a decreased biomass of piscivorous fish. Alternatively, in periods when the bloom occurs in warm water, zooplankton populations should grow rapidly, providing plentiful prey for larval and juvenile fish. Abundant zooplankton will support strong recruitment of fish and will lead to abundant predatory fish that control forage fish, including, in the case of pollock, their own juveniles. Piscivorous marine birds and pinnipeds may achieve higher production of young and survival in cold regimes, when there is less competition from large piscivorous fish for coldwater forage fish such as capelin (Mallotus villosus). Piscivorous seabirds and pinnipeds also may be expected to have high productivity in periods of transition from cold regimes to warm regimes, when young of large predatory species of fish are numerous enough to provide forage. The OCH predicts that the ability of large predatory fish populations to sustain fishing pressure will vary between warm and cold regimes.The OCH points to the importance of the timing of ice retreat and water temperatures during the spring bloom for the productivity of zooplankton, and the degree and direction of coupling between zooplankton and forage fish. in the biomass of large piscivorous fish and a concurrent decline in the biomass of forage fish, including age-1 walleye pollock, particularly over the southern portion of the shelf. Populations of northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) and seabirds such as kittiwakes (Rissa spp.) at the Pribilof Islands have declined, most probably in response to a diminished prey base. The available evidence suggests that these changes are unlikely the result of a decrease in total annual new primary production, though the possibility of reduced post-bloom production during summer remains. An ecosystem approach to management of the Bering Sea and its fisheries is of great importance if all o...

show abstract

Have there been recent changes in climate? Ask the fish

Cited by 214 publications

References 24 publications

Ecological thresholds and regime shifts: approaches to identification

Ecological thresholds and regime shifts: approaches to identification

Impact of climate change and human-mediated introgression on southern European Atlantic salmon populations

Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About