Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Abstract

Background Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity. Methods By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction) among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of diseasespecific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome. Findings In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 10-12) deaths and 255 million (234-274) DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1-5] deaths and 70 million [34-118] DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2-4] deaths and 82 million [59-109] DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1-4] deaths and 65 million [41-92] DALYs) were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates. Interpretation This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Brief introduction of medical database and data mining technology in big data era

“…People have always been concerned about the dangers of diseases that endanger human health. Accurately grasping the burden of various diseases around the world is of great significance for understanding the degree of damage and development of diseases, improving the efficiency of health services, and promoting the health and social and economic development of residents 88,89 . In 1988, with the support of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Bank, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation of the United States, the Harvard School of Public Health began research on the GBD 90 .…”

Making nutrition guidelines fit for purpose

“…Dietary risk factors are the leading contributors to the global burden of disease 1. But what we choose to eat also affects the health of the planet 2.…”

Sixty seconds on . . . bad diets

“…According to last week’s newspaper headlines, unhealthy diets are responsible for one in five deaths around the world, more even than tobacco. They were reporting results from the Global Burden of Disease Study, published in the Lancet ,1 showing that “suboptimal” diets were responsible for around 11 million deaths in 2017. High intake of sodium and low consumption of whole grains and fruit were the main culprits.…”