Health risks of warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and higher, above pre-industrial temperatures

Ebi, Kristie L.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Hayes, Katie; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Paz, Shlomit; Berry, Peter

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac4bd

Cited by 76 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 126 publications

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“…Global mean surface temperature is the most frequently cited indicator of climate change, with a steady upward trend since the 1970s (Rahmstorf et al, ). This indicator is useful for understanding the overall anthropogenic influence on the climate system and frequently is used as a shorthand benchmark for climate risks (e.g., Ebi et al, ). This said, there is a clear spatial variability in temperature trends, and while global mean temperature may correlate broadly with trends in many regions of the globe, the internal variability of the climate system yields considerable spatial variation in this trend (Sutton et al, ), even to the point of producing warming holes (e.g., Banerjee et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal Trends in Absolute and Relative Extreme Temperature Events Across North America

Sheridan

Lee

2018

JGR Atmospheres

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In this research, we define extreme temperature events using a recently defined excess heat factor, based on the exceedance of apparent temperature beyond the 95th percentile along with an acclimatization factor, to define extreme heat events (EHE). We extend the calculation to assess cold and develop relative metrics to complement the absolute metrics, where extremeness is based on conditions relative to season. We thus examine extreme cold events (ECE), relative extreme heat events, and relative extreme cold events in addition to EHE. We present a climatology of these variables for North America, followed by analyses of trends from 1980 to 2016. While EHE and ECE are found in the core of summer and winter, respectively, relative events tend to have a broader seasonality. Trends in relative extreme heat events and EHE are upward, and relative extreme cold events and ECE are downward; the relative events are changing more rapidly than the absolute events.Plain Language Summary One of the most critical ways in which weather conditions influence the environment is through extreme temperature events. While excessive heat and cold conditions have been amply studied, events that are extreme relative to the time of year have been less examined. These relative events may grab fewer headlines but can have important impacts on the environment, agriculture, and human health. In this research, we present a climatology of cold and heat events, both absolute and relative, for North America, followed by an analysis how they have changed from 1980 to 2016. Results show an increase in heat events and decrease in cold events across most of the United States and Canada. More interestingly, the relative events are changing slightly more rapidly than the absolute events. SHERIDAN AND LEE11,891 subsequent k-means cluster analysis. This process resulted in each grid point being categorized into one of 12 regions. Multiple numbers of regions (between k = 5 and k = 15) were examined, and ultimately 12 were chosen based upon qualitative assessment as well as 12 regions having the best variability skill score (Lee, 2014). These statistically derived regions were then used to inform a customized drawing of the final regions in ArcMap.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal Trends in Absolute and Relative Extreme Temperature Events Across North America

Sheridan

Lee

2018

JGR Atmospheres

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“…In many environmental applications, such a hydrological [12,[26][27][28] or evapotranspiration [29][30][31][32][33][34] studies, or health risk research [35], different sensitivity coefficients are ascertained, depending on the objective of the research. A curve construction as a sensitivity assessment is the easiest and most basic method for plotting relative changes in a dependent variable in relation to independent variable(s).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Growing Degree Days as an Agro-Climatic Indicator of the Climate Change Impact: A Case Study of the Russian Far East

Grigorieva

2020

Atmosphere

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Climate is a key factor in agriculture, but we are unable to adequately predict future climates. Although some studies have addressed the short and long-run impacts of climate change on agriculture, few of them specifically focused on the analysis of its thermal component. Climatic regions with an extreme thermal range are a special case, as seasonal contrasts complicate the picture. Based on the above, the purpose of the paper is twofold. First, we review methods and indices used for the estimation of changes in the thermal component of the climate and demonstrate the usefulness of a sensitivity assessment methodology that gives some indication of the likely spatial extent of areas of high or low sensitivity to climate change and the size of the potential impact of that change, which is specifically beneficial in regions with high temperature extremes. Secondly, we constructed a composite indicator, called the Growing Degree Day Sensitivity Index (GDDSI) and defined as the percentage change in Growing Degree Day (GDD) for warming scenarios +1, +2 and +3 °C. GDDs were calculated for threshold base air temperatures of 0, 5, 10 and 15 °C, and a high-temperature limit of 30 °C. A GDD sensitivity analysis was applied to the thermally extreme climate of the Russian Far East. We analyzed the data of 50 weather stations across the study region over the period 1966–2017. The results show a strong GDDSI north-to-south gradient. In most cases, the sensitivity does not increase significantly as the warming rate increases. The higher the base threshold, the higher the sensitivity: GDDs with a threshold at 15 °C had the highest sensitivity in the far north of the study area where conditions are currently marginal for crop growth. The sensitivity analysis circumnavigates the difficulty of uncertainty in knowing what future climate to expect and informs planning decisions. The mapped results are useful for identifying areas of high sensitivity to climate change as well as the magnitude of the potential impact of that change.

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“…Cheng et al 2019a, 2019b, Liss and Naumova 2019, Thompson et al 2018, Zhang et al 2017. While there is evidence in some locations that heatwave-related deaths declined over the past few decades (Arbuthnott et al 2016), at the same time there is concern that a changing climate, urbanization, and an aging population are likely to put many more people at risk over coming decades (Ebi et al 2018, Rohat et al 2019. Research is advancing understanding of exposure-response relationships and identifying groups particularly vulnerable to high temperatures.…”

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confidence: 99%

Effective heat action plans: research to interventions

Ebi

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Strengthening the links between research and interventions would mean new insights could be translated more quickly into actions to protect and promote population health. Doing so requires strong collaboration among funders, the research community, and stakeholders, to understand stakeholder needs, constraints, and opportunities, and to focus research questions so results are useful, useable, and used. Continuing increases in the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves underscores the urgency of fostering two-way communications between researchers and those responsible for designing and implementing heat action plans, to ensure research is effectively targeted to further reduce heat-related morbidity and mortality in a changing climate.

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Health risks of warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and higher, above pre-industrial temperatures

Cited by 76 publications

References 126 publications

Temporal Trends in Absolute and Relative Extreme Temperature Events Across North America

Temporal Trends in Absolute and Relative Extreme Temperature Events Across North America

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Growing Degree Days as an Agro-Climatic Indicator of the Climate Change Impact: A Case Study of the Russian Far East

Effective heat action plans: research to interventions

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