Health Status and Medical Treatment of the Future Elderly: Final Report

Goldman, Dana P.

doi:10.7249/tr169

Cited by 66 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 112 publications

(161 reference statements)

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“…We note that the coefficient for the proportion of the population that is Medicare-aged is non-significant but suggests that counties with a higher proportion of elders are associated with fewer physicians per capita. This finding counters the large literature documenting higher physician utilization rates among the elderly than non-elderly adults (see, e.g., Goldman et al 2004). We believe that this anomalous finding is spurious and reflects the association between the proportion of elderly and other unobserved regional economic characteristics not in the model.…”

Section: Projecting Physician Per Capita Demandcontrasting

confidence: 74%

Assessing the Need for a New Medical School: A Case Study in Applied Demography

Beckett

Morrison

2009

Popul Res Policy Rev

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Section: Projecting Physician Per Capita Demandcontrasting

confidence: 74%

Assessing the Need for a New Medical School: A Case Study in Applied Demography

Beckett

Morrison

2009

Popul Res Policy Rev

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“…The model is an extension of the Future Elderly Model (FEM) (Goldman et al, 2004). The FEM consists of a transition model across health states that allows for unobserved heterogeneity (frailty) and dynamic population simulations.…”

Section: Microsimulation Model Of Health and Economic Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differences in health between Americans and Western Europeans: Effects on longevity and public finance

Michaud

Goldman

Lakdawalla

et al. 2011

Social Science & Medicine

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In 1975, 50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than most of their Western European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy had fallen behind that of most Western European countries. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily due to real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their Western European peers. We use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Western Europe. The model implies that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Western Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050.

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“…We conduct simulations using the FEM, a dynamic microsimulation developed by Goldman et al to forecast the implications of different medical-technology scenarios on long-term health and health-care spending [12]. FEM follows Americans aged 50 and older and projects their health and medical spending over time.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Long-Term Benefits of Increased Aspirin Use by At-Risk Americans Aged 50 and Older

et al. 2016

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BackgroundThe usefulness of aspirin to defend against cardiovascular disease in both primary and secondary settings is well recognized by the medical profession. Multiple studies also have found that daily aspirin significantly reduces cancer incidence and mortality. Despite these proven health benefits, aspirin use remains low among populations targeted by cardiovascular prevention guidelines. This article seeks to determine the long-term economic and population-health impact of broader use of aspirin by older Americans at higher risk for cardiovascular disease.Methods and FindingsWe employ the Future Elderly Model, a dynamic microsimulation that follows Americans aged 50 and older, to project their lifetime health and spending under the status quo and in various scenarios of expanded aspirin use. The model is based primarily on data from the Health and Retirement Study, a large, representative, national survey that has been ongoing for more than two decades. Outcomes are chosen to provide a broad perspective of the individual and societal impacts of the interventions and include: heart disease, stroke, cancer, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy, and medical costs. Eligibility for increased aspirin use in simulations is based on the 2011–2012 questionnaire on preventive aspirin use of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. These data reveal a large unmet need for daily aspirin, with over 40% of men and 10% of women aged 50 to 79 presenting high cardiovascular risk but not taking aspirin. We estimate that increased use by high-risk older Americans would improve national life expectancy at age 50 by 0.28 years (95% CI 0.08–0.50) and would add 900,000 people (95% CI 300,000–1,400,000) to the American population by 2036. After valuing the quality-adjusted life-years appropriately, Americans could expect $692 billion (95% CI 345–975) in net health benefits over that period.ConclusionsExpanded use of aspirin by older Americans with elevated risk of cardiovascular disease could generate substantial population health benefits over the next twenty years and do so very cost-effectively.

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Health Status and Medical Treatment of the Future Elderly: Final Report

Cited by 66 publications

References 112 publications

Assessing the Need for a New Medical School: A Case Study in Applied Demography

Assessing the Need for a New Medical School: A Case Study in Applied Demography

Differences in health between Americans and Western Europeans: Effects on longevity and public finance

The Long-Term Benefits of Increased Aspirin Use by At-Risk Americans Aged 50 and Older

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