Heat Waves, Climate Change, and Economic Output

Miller, Steve; Chua, Kenn; Coggins, Jay S.; Mohtadi, Hamid

doi:10.1093/jeea/jvab009

Cited by 56 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Many high-income countries such as the United States have lost relatively little in relative terms but tens of billions in absolute terms due to their large economies. These effects are smaller than those found by Diffenbaugh and Burke (29) from annual mean temperature but are comparable to those found by Miller et al (23) projecting future losses from heat waves (although Miller et al focus primarily on agricultural output).…”

Section: Global Economic Effects Of Anthropogenic Extreme Heatsupporting

confidence: 74%

“…These results complement and extend existing work that shows the negative economic effects of heat exposure. Miller et al ( 23 ) showed that consecutive hot days exceeding location-specific thresholds weakly reduce growth in country-level overall GDP and strongly reduce growth in country-level agricultural GDP and that these effects are stronger in warmer years. Our work is consistent with theirs, showing negative effects of multiday periods of extreme heat on economic growth.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Empirical research has shown that extreme temperatures reduce labor productivity (21), damage crops (22,23), and increase mortality (9), among other effects. Because this research is often sector or region specific (24)(25)(26), a theoretical and empirical gap still remains between the nonlinearities identified at the local and sectoral level and the global economic assessments required to evaluate differing climate policies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We measure extreme heat using the temperature of the hottest 5-day period in each year (“Tx5d”), although we assess several other metrics and find little difference in their effects. Tx5d and related metrics that measure the intensity of the hottest period of each year have been used in recent work to characterize changes in extreme heat ( 1 , 11 , 43 – 45 ) and have the benefit of capturing damaging multiday periods of extreme heat ( 23 ) while avoiding the arbitrary thresholds used in other heat wave metrics ( 46 , 47 ). Tx5d does not explicitly measure the frequency of extreme heat nor variations in its duration, so our identification strategy centers on measuring the effect of the intensity of the most extreme heat wave in each year.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth

Callahan

Mankin

2022

Sci. Adv.

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Increased extreme heat is among the clearest impacts of global warming, but the economic effects of heat waves are poorly understood. Using subnational economic data, extreme heat metrics measuring the temperature of the hottest several days in each year, and an ensemble of climate models, we quantify the effect of extreme heat intensity on economic growth globally. We find that human-caused increases in heat waves have depressed economic output most in the poor tropical regions least culpable for warming. Cumulative 1992–2013 losses from anthropogenic extreme heat likely fall between $5 trillion and $29.3 trillion globally. Losses amount to 6.7% of Gross Domestic Product per capita per year for regions in the bottom income decile, but only 1.5% for regions in the top income decile. Our results have the potential to inform adaptation investments and demonstrate how global inequality is both a cause and consequence of the unequal burden of climate change.

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Section: Global Economic Effects Of Anthropogenic Extreme Heatsupporting

confidence: 74%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth

Callahan

Mankin

2022

Sci. Adv.

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“…Regarding tourism in the Mediterranean, a large part of it is based on the "sun and sea" model with a clear seasonality peaking in summer. This type of tourism is potentially vulnerable to the global rise of temperatures that have led to an increase of heat waves in the last years (Lindsey and Dahlman, 2020;Miller et al, 2021). In fact, some authors have concluded that the Mediterranean region will become "too hot" for tourist comfort in the peak summer season by as early as the 2030s (Rutty and Scott, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of loss of tourism attractiveness in the Western Mediterranean under climate change

2022

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The sun and sea tourism is key for economy of the southern European countries. This economic sector is expected to be severely affected by climate change due to the projected loss of beaches, loss of thermal comfort, water restrictions or extreme events, among other impacts. Thus, adaptation strategies need to be developed urgently. To do so, it is necessary to first conduct an assessment of the risk of loss of tourism attractiveness to guide the development of such strategies. Furthermore, uncertainties in the different factors are considered into the risk analysis. In this study we analyze the risk of loss of tourism attractiveness due to climate change in the Spanish Mediterranean destinations, in the Western Mediterranean, as a case study. To do so, the Vulnerability Sourcebook methodology is adopted and modified to incorporate the uncertainties in the different elements of the impact chains. The increase in heat stress and the loss of beach availability have been identified as the climate change induced hazards that will affect the most the region attractiveness. Also, the impact chains have been constructed and several climatic and socioeconomic indicators have been considered after a knowledge co-production process with selected stakeholders. The weights assigned to each indicator have been obtained from an analytic hierarchy process based on the results of a consultation with sector experts. The results of the impact chain operationalization have shown that exposure and vulnerability in all the touristic destinations in the region are very similar and that the hazard will largely increase in the next decades, specially under the future scenario SSP585 or the RCP8.5. However, the final risk does not seem to suffer a large increase because of the relatively small weight assigned to the hazard. In other words, the exposure (e.g., typology of the tourists and touristic activities) or the vulnerability (e.g., capacity to put in place adaptation strategies) would be more important than the projected change in the hazard (e.g., heat stress increase or beach reduction). The benefits and limitations of the methodology are discussed and some suggestions for the validation of the assessment are proposed.

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Heat wave impacts on crop‐pest dynamics are dependent upon insect ontogeny and plant resistance

Acosta,

Zehr,

Snook

et al. 2024

Ecosphere

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Heat waves, brief periods of unusually high temperatures, are damaging to agroecosystems and are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change. Despite growing appreciation for the threat that heat waves pose to agricultural sustainability, we have a poor understanding of what determines their impact on agroecological interactions in the field. Here, we report the results of a field experiment that examined how heat waves and their timing interact with crop pest resistance to influence the interactions between potato (Solanum tuberosum) and its most damaging pest, the Colorado potato beetle (CPB; Leptinotarsa decemlineata). We used open‐top chambers and ceramic heaters to generate heat wave conditions in field plots with pest‐resistant and pest‐susceptible potato varieties at four CPB developmental stages. We then assessed CPB performance, leaf herbivory, and tuber yield. The neonate‐stage heat wave reduced larval survival by 10%, but the surviving larvae were 18% larger and developed 15% faster. However, these effects occurred only on the susceptible variety; both larval survival and growth were unaffected by the heat wave in the pest‐resistant variety. Moreover, the neonate‐stage heat wave reduced adult survival by 15%, suggesting negative carry‐over effects of early‐life heat exposure. Heat wave events after the neonate stage had no effects on CPB performance, crop damage, or tuber yield. Our results indicate that timing and pest resistance in crops are essential for understanding the impacts of extreme heat events on crop‐pest dynamics. Agroecological pest management in an increasingly variable and extreme climate will likely benefit from the development of strategies that account for the seasonal timing of potential heat events and from the continued use of crop varieties bred for pest resistance, which our results suggest may dampen the impacts of extreme temperatures on crop‐pest interactions.

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Heat Waves, Climate Change, and Economic Output

Cited by 56 publications

References 36 publications

Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth

Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth

Risk of loss of tourism attractiveness in the Western Mediterranean under climate change

Heat wave impacts on crop‐pest dynamics are dependent upon insect ontogeny and plant resistance

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