Heavy rainfall associated with floods in southeastern Brazil in November–December 2021

Marengo, José A.; Seluchi, Marcelo Enrique; Cunha, Ana Paula; Cuartas, Luz Adriana; Gonçalves, Demerval Aparecido; Sperling, Vinicius B.; Ramos, Andrea M.; Dolif, Giovanni; Saito, Silvia Midori; Bender, Fabiani Denise; Lopes, Tárcio Rocha; Alvalá, Regina Célia dos Santos; Moraes, Osvaldo L. L.

doi:10.1007/s11069-023-05827-z

Cited by 24 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…This situation shows that the wet northwest monsoon along with the topographical factor in South Sulawesi has a significant influence on the high extreme indices value in western South Sulawesi (Luo et al, 2023). This occurs because the wet northwest monsoon which occurs from November to April, which carries a substantial amount of water vapour, generates a substantial amount of rain in South Sulawesi (Marengo et al, 2023). The moist wind blows from west to east of the Java Sea's wide waters and creates persistent rain events in South Sulawesi.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

The Atmospheric Dynamics Related to Extreme Rainfall and Flood Events during September-October-November in South Sulawesi

Ulfiana,

Arsyad,

Palloan

2023

For. Geo.

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This study was conducted to analyse the occurrence of extreme rainfall and the dynamics of the atmosphere prior to the occurrence of extreme rainfall and flood events in South Sulawesi during September-October-November (South Sulawesi’s dry season). The data used is daily data for the period 2001-2020. Using 50 mm/day and the 90th percentile rainfall threshold of 119 rain stations distributed over 24 regencies, extreme rainfall events in each region were identified. Furthermore, after screening for extreme rainfall events followed by flood events, a composite analysis was carried out to obtain patterns of atmospheric conditions before the extreme rainfall events. The results of the study confirm that spatially, the highest extreme rainfall indices values dominate in the western and northern regions of South Sulawesi, both frequency and intensity indicators. Flood events in South Sulawesi during September-October-November 2001-2020 were recorded as 23 days, of which 19 days were the flood events after extreme rainfall events. The dynamics of the atmosphere before the extreme rainfall event followed by the flood event showed anomalies in precipitable water, 850 mb winds, and 200 mb winds. An increase in the amount of precipitable water and a wind speed of 850 mb, as well as a decrease in wind speed of 250 mb compared to normal in the South Sulawesi region and its surroundings, has resulted in an increase in the formation of rain clouds that have the potential to increase the chance of extreme rainfall.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

The Atmospheric Dynamics Related to Extreme Rainfall and Flood Events during September-October-November in South Sulawesi

Ulfiana,

Arsyad,

Palloan

2023

For. Geo.

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“…The confidence intervals [CI] were computed by the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile using 1,000 bootstraps simulations. 21 [3,31] 5 [4,6] 26 [17,40] In particular, the analysis highlights the event observed on March 2 nd and 3 rd , 2020, suggesting that anthropogenic climate change has resulted in a significant rise in the occurrence of long-term precipitation accumulation leading to landslides (approximately 42% increase for RX60day max ). Furthermore, it has also contributed to a higher frequency of short-term trigger precipitation, like those observed in early March 2020 (approximately 31% increase for RX3day max ).…”

Section: [Ci]mentioning

confidence: 90%

“…Natural disasters such as floods and landslides triggered by extreme precipitation have caused hundreds of deaths and injuries, with economic losses and damages costing millions of dollars every year. Recent heavy rainfall episodes in Brazil have led to hundreds of fatalities, extensive homelessness, and billions in financial losses [1][2][3][4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme rainfall and landslides as a response to human-induced climate change: a case study at Baixada Santista, Brazil, 2020

de Souza,

Crespo,

Silva

et al. 2023

Preprint

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In March 2020, an extreme rainfall in Baixada Santista, Brazil, led to a series of landslides affecting more than 2,800 people and resulting losses exceeding USD 43 million. This attribution study compared extreme rainfall in two distinct runs from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM3-GA6 model: one with all forcings and the other with natural forcings only, considering antecedent conditions and soil moisture (extreme 60-day rainfall, Rx60day) and heavy rainfall (extreme 3-day rainfall, Rx3day) which may trigger landslides. The long-term set-up became 74% more likely, while the short-term trigger was 46% more likely. The anthropogenic contribution to changes in rainfall accounted for 20-42% of the total losses and damages. The greatest economic losses occurred in Guarujá (42%), followed by São Vicente (30%) and Santos (28%). Landslides were responsible for 47% of homes damaged, 85% of homes destroyed, all reported injuries, and 51% of deaths associated with heavy rainfall. Changes in land cover and increased urbanization showed a pronounced increase in urbanized area in Guarujá (107%), São Vicente (61.7%) and Santos (36.9%) and a reduction in farming area. Population growth estimates also indicate higher exposure to extreme rainfall events. The proportion of irregular and/or precarious housing indicates vulnerability, with Guarujá being the municipality with the highest number (34.8%) of dwellings of this type. Our estimates suggest that extreme precipitation events are having shorter return periods due to climate change and increased urbanization and population growth is exposing more people to these events. These findings are especially important for decision-makers in the context of disaster risk reduction and mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

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“…The impacts of extreme rainfall events have raised growing concern from various sectors of society and have been the subject of extensive research by the scientific community (Tank and Konnen, 2003;Yildirim and Rahman, 2022;Marengo et al, 2023;Alcantara et al, 2023). Such events are associated with unplanned urbanization, which puts at risk the population to environmental disasters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Homogeneity analysis of daily precipitation series in Paraná State, southern Brazil

Silva,

Bolonhez,

Pinheiro

2024

Preprint

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The analysis of extreme precipitation events plays a crucial role in the management of water resources, infrastructure, public water supply, agriculture, fire control, and public health. For an accurate characterization of precipitation events using historical series, the observed variations must be solely attributable to weather and climate conditions. This study aimed to identify homogeneous gauge stations in Paraná State, southern Brazil, based on four statistical tests (SNHT, Buishand, Pettitt, and von Neumann) and conduct a homogeneity analysis of daily rainfall data. Missing values were imputed into the time series, and only stations with up to 25% of data gaps were included. Of the 482 stations analyzed in the state, 73.7% (n = 355) demonstrated homogeneity, 11.6% (n = 56) were considered doubtful, and 14.7% (n= 71) were deemed suspect. The highest number of homogeneity breaks was recorded from 1990 to 2005. The number of breaks during this period was estimated at 75 (59.1%) by SNHT, 86 (67.7%) by the Buishand test, and 89 (70.1%) by the Pettitt test. The year with the highest number of homogeneity breaks was 1998, with 81 breaks identified by the Pettitt test. These breaks may be related to El Niño and La Niña phenomena, given that a large sample of rainfall stations was analyzed in the study.

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Heavy rainfall associated with floods in southeastern Brazil in November–December 2021

Cited by 24 publications

References 30 publications

The Atmospheric Dynamics Related to Extreme Rainfall and Flood Events during September-October-November in South Sulawesi

The Atmospheric Dynamics Related to Extreme Rainfall and Flood Events during September-October-November in South Sulawesi

Extreme rainfall and landslides as a response to human-induced climate change: a case study at Baixada Santista, Brazil, 2020

Homogeneity analysis of daily precipitation series in Paraná State, southern Brazil

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