Helium Production and Possible Projection

Abstract

The future availability of helium has been raised as an issue in the literature. However, a disaggregated projection of helium production has not been attempted, presumably due to the difficult nature of accessing disaggregated historic production data to test the accuracy of this issue. This paper presents collated and estimated historic helium production statistics from 1921 to 2012 for each helium producing country in the world and by U.S. state. A high and regular growth projection of helium has been created. It is found that helium resources are sufficient for the near future, with the projected production plateauing in 2060-2075 and 2090-2100 for the high and regular growth scenarios, respectively. As long as natural gas deposits with helium are appropriately managed, there is little likelihood for helium shortages to occur in the short term due to geologic constraints.

Atmospheric helium isotopic ratio from 1910 to 2016 recorded in stainless steel containers

“…The global He production from NG has been estimated to be ~954 kilotons over a 79-year span (1935U.S. Geological Survey, 2014) or ~789 kilotons over a 91-year span (1921-2012Mohr and Ward, 2014). Assuming that NG helium is purely radiogenic, these amounts would correspond to ~2.0-2.4 × 10 11 moles of 4 He.…”

“…Assuming that NG helium is purely radiogenic, these amounts would correspond to ~2.0-2.4 × 10 11 moles of 4 He. If such helium was globally released and homogenised in the atmosphere ( 4 He atmospheric inventory: 9.3 × 10 14 mol), the R AIR could have decreased by ~0.22 ‰ (1921-2012Mohr and Ward, 2014;Mabry et al, 2015Mabry et al, ) or ~0.26 ‰ (1935Mabry et al, -2014U.S. Geological Survey, 2014).…”

“…Geological Survey, 2014). Such estimates are rough since the global He production of NG (i) includes an amount of stocked helium not released into the atmosphere; (ii) neglects an unknown amount of He lost into the air by venting/ extraction during its production (e.g., Mohr and Ward, 2014) (iii) neglects the poorly defined average He composition (some are rich in 3 He; e.g., Pinti and Marty, 2000).…”

“…Here, we aim to constrain temporal variation of R AIR that could be related to the beginning of the commercial helium production in 1921 (Mohr and Ward, 2014). To do so, we used large amounts of air trapped in stainless steel materials insuring good preservation of helium over time since 1910.…”

Phasing out the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Policy insights from a world helium model

“…During the years [2007][2008][2009][2010][2011][2012][2013], that historically stable market experienced a series of noticeable supply shortages and unusually high prices. 2 Given the critical importance of that commodity for our modern societies, helium suddenly emerged as a source of political concern (NRC, 2010;Nuttall et al, 2012a) and the future availability of helium resources subsequently became the topic of a burgeoning literature authored by science and technology experts (Cai et al, 2010;Glowacki et al, 2013;Mohr and Ward, 2014). 3 The present paper provides a complementary perspective as it details an economic analysis of the world helium market and examines the rationale of a U.S. government policy: the 2013 Helium Stewardship Act (HSA).…”