Hiding opinions by minimizing disclosed information: an obfuscation-based opinion dynamics model

Abstract

In the field of opinion dynamics, the hiding of opinions is routinely modeled as staying silent. However, staying silent is not always feasible. In situations where opinions are indirectly expressed by one's observable actions, people may however try to hide their opinions via a more complex and intelligent strategy called obfuscation, which minimizes the information disclosed to others. This study proposes a formal opinion dynamics model to study the hitherto unexplored effect of obfuscation on public opinion formation based on the recently developed Action-Opinion Inference Model. For illustration purposes, we use our model to simulate two cases with different levels of complexity, highlighting that the effect of obfuscation largely depends on the subtle relations between actions and opinions.

Camouflage: A dominant reaction to worsening conditions

“…Individuals who disagree with the new regime (C1 is high) but who see no possibility of avoiding its power (C4 is high) can try to participate to a minimal extent in the activities of the oppressive regime. They may choose an "obfuscating" strategy, revealing as little information as possible about what they really think (Chorus et al, 2022). Individuals seek to avoid punishment by participating in rallies and demonstrations celebrating the regime and other rituals, such as flying a flag supporting the regime.…”