High emissions could increase the future risk of maize drought in China by 60–70 %

Jia, Huicong; Chen, Fang; Zhang, Chuanrong; Dong, Jinwei; Du, Enyu; Wang, Lei

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158474

Cited by 27 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…In this study, we found an apparent warming and drying climate trend in the South China Karst region over the three decades ( Supplementary Figures S4 , S5 ), especially after 2000, which is in accordance with existing reports ( Lian et al., 2015 ). Although the increase of temperature will prolong the length of vegetation growing season and increase the intensity of photosynthetic rate ( Dragoni et al., 2011 ), the sustained temperature increase may further accelerate the plants transpiration and surface evapotranspiration ( Barriopedro et al., 2012 ; Jia et al., 2022 ). Meanwhile, the decrease of precipitation further promotes the decline of soil moisture in karst areas ( Liu et al., 2018 ), which may inhibit the growth of vegetation to a certain extent.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization and attribution of vegetation dynamics in the ecologically fragile South China Karst: Evidence from three decadal Landsat observations

et al. 2022

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Plant growth and its changes over space and time are effective indicators for signifying ecosystem health. However, large uncertainties remain in characterizing and attributing vegetation changes in the ecologically fragile South China Karst region, since most existing studies were conducted at a coarse spatial resolution or covered limited time spans. Considering the highly fragmented landscapes in the region, this hinders their capability in detecting fine information of vegetation dynamics taking place at local scales and comprehending the influence of climate change usually over relatively long temporal ranges. Here, we explored the spatiotemporal variations in vegetation greenness for the entire South China Karst region (1.9 million km2) at a resolution of 30m for the notably increased time span (1987-2018) using three decadal Landsat images and the cloud-based Google Earth Engine. Moreover, we spatially attributed the vegetation changes and quantified the relative contribution of driving factors. Our results revealed a widespread vegetation recovery in the South China Karst (74.80%) during the past three decades. Notably, the area of vegetation recovery tripled following the implementation of ecological engineering compared with the reference period (1987-1999). Meanwhile, the vegetation restoration trend was strongly sustainable beyond 2018 as demonstrated by the Hurst exponent. Furthermore, climate change contributed only one-fifth to vegetation restoration, whereas major vegetation recovery was highly attributable to afforestation projects, implying that anthropogenic influences accelerated vegetation greenness gains in karst areas since the start of the new millennium during which ecological engineering was continually established. Our study provides additional insights into ecological restoration and conservation in the highly heterogeneous karst landscapes and other similar ecologically fragile areas worldwide.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization and attribution of vegetation dynamics in the ecologically fragile South China Karst: Evidence from three decadal Landsat observations

et al. 2022

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“…Water availability is imperative for vegetation growth, especially in arid and semi‐arid ecosystems (Fang et al, 2019; Jia et al, 2022; Jiao et al, 2021; Stocker et al, 2018; Yuan et al, 2019). Soil moisture is the most direct source of water for vegetation, so changes in soil moisture will affect the amount of water available to vegetation consequently.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earlier leaf senescence dates are constrained by soil moisture

Wang

Liu

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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The unprecedented warming that has occurred in recent decades has led to later autumn leaf senescence dates (LSD) throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Yet, great uncertainties still exist regarding the strength of these delaying trends, especially in terms of how soil moisture affects them. Here we show that changes in soil moisture in 1982-2015 had a substantial impact on autumn LSD in one-fifth of the vegetated areas in the Northern Hemisphere (>30° N), and how it contributed more to LSD variability than either temperature, precipitation or radiation. We developed a new model based on soil-moisture-constrained cooling degree days (CDD SM ) to characterize the effects of soil moisture on LSD and compared its performance with the CDD, Delpierre and spring-influenced autumn models. We show that the CDD SM model with inputs of temperature and soil moisture outperformed the three other models for LSD modelling and had an overall higher correlation coefficient (R), a lower root mean square error and lower Akaike information criterion (AIC) between observations and model predictions. These improvements were particularly evident in arid and semi-arid regions. We studied future LSD using the CDD SM model under two scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) and found that predicted LSD was 4.1 ± 1.4 days and 5.8 ± 2.8 days earlier under SSP126 and SSP585, respectively, than other models for the end of this century. Our study therefore reveals the importance of soil moisture in regulating autumn LSD and, in particular, highlights how coupling this effect with LSD models can improve simulations of the response of vegetation phenology to future climate change.

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“…Climatologically, the increasing phenomenon after the 1990s corresponded to the intensification of anthropogenic global warming. Many studies have confirmed that sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric water vapor significantly increased after the Industrial Revolution (Goh and Chan, 2010;Jia et al, 2020;Wang et al, 2019). In the context of global warming, higher atmospheric water vapor content leads to more TCP.…”

Section: Interdecadal Tropical Cyclone Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 95%

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of tropical cyclone precipitation over China from 1959 to 2018

Zhang

et al. 2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) can cause serious floods and urban waterlogs as well as cause various secondary disasters, such as landslides and debris flows, which negatively affect human lives and the sustainable development of the economy. This study applied the prewhitening Mann-Kendall test, empirical orthogonal function, and continuous wavelet transform to investigate the long-term trend, spatiotemporal pattern, and periodicity of TCP at monthly, interannual, and interdecadal timescales over China. The recurrence risks of extreme TCP were analyzed using the return period estimation model. The results showed that 1) TCP displayed a significant increasing trend, especially in eastern China, inland areas, and Guangxi Province. The TCP periodicities were 2.5 and 4.9 years across all of China. However, TCP cycles had large discrepancies in the time and frequency domains in different subregions. 2) Monthly TCP demonstrated a decreasing trend in May and an increasing trend from June to October in all of China. The TCP in northeastern China and southern China tended to decrease in July and August, respectively. 3) TCP demonstrated a decreasing tendency from the 1960s–1980s followed by a rebounding trend in the 1990s–2010s. In addition, TCP showed a dipole mode in the 1970s and 2000s. 4) There was an increasing recurrence risk of extreme TCP in the Yangtze River Delta, Hainan Province, southeastern Guangxi Province, and southwestern Guangdong Province. It is therefore necessary to improve forecasting of extreme TCP events to improve risk management and prevention capacity of natural disasters, especially in regions with high population and economy exposure.

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High emissions could increase the future risk of maize drought in China by 60–70 %

Cited by 27 publications

References 62 publications

Characterization and attribution of vegetation dynamics in the ecologically fragile South China Karst: Evidence from three decadal Landsat observations

Characterization and attribution of vegetation dynamics in the ecologically fragile South China Karst: Evidence from three decadal Landsat observations

Earlier leaf senescence dates are constrained by soil moisture

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of tropical cyclone precipitation over China from 1959 to 2018

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