High Life Expectancy of Muscovites Over Age 80: Reality or a Statistical Artifact?

Papanova, E K; Shkolnikov, Vladimir M.; Andreev, Evgueni M.; Timonin, Sergey

doi:10.1134/s2079057018020145

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Life expectancy for Russia and Moscow in 2005, 2010, and 2015 was calculated from the official mortality data by the Russian Statistical Service (Rosstat). Using our previous estimates, 22 we calculated the life expectancy values for Moscow for these years, which were adjusted for underestimation of mortality at older ages. These estimates were lower than the original Rosstat life expectancy estimates by 0·2 years in 2005, 0·4 years in 2010, and 1·0 years in 2015.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns in the relationship between life expectancy and gross domestic product in Russia in 2005–15: a cross-sectional analysis

Shkolnikov

Andreev

Tursun-zade

et al. 2019

The Lancet Public Health

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Background Since 2005, Russia has made substantial progress, experiencing an almost doubling of per-capita gross domestic product by purchasing power parity (GDP [PPP]) to US$24 800 and witnessing a 6-year increase in life expectancy, reaching 71•4 years by 2015. Even greater gains in GDP (PPP) were seen for Moscow, the Russian capital, reaching $43 000 in 2015 and with a life expectancy of 75•5 years. We aimed to investigate whether mortality levels now seen in Russia are consistent with what would be expected given this new level of per-capita wealth. Methods We used per-capita GDP (PPP) and life expectancy from 61 countries in 2014-15, plus those of Russia as a whole and its capital Moscow, to construct a Preston curve expressing the relationship between mortality and national wealth and to examine the positions of Russia and other populations relative to this curve. We adjusted life expectancy values for Moscow for underestimation of mortality at older ages. For comparison, we constructed another Preston curve based on the same set of countries for the year 2005. We used the stepwise replacement algorithm to decompose mortality differences between Russia or Moscow and comparator countries with similar incomes into age and causeof-death components. Findings Life expectancy in 2015 for both Russia and Moscow lay below the Preston-curve-based expectations by 6•5 years and 4•9 years, respectively. In 2015, Russia had a lower per-capita income than 36 of the comparator countries but lower life expectancy than 60 comparator countries. However, the gaps between the observed and the Preston-expected life expectancy values for Russia have diminished by about 25% since 2005, when the life expectancy gap was 8•9 years for Russia and 6•6 years for Moscow. When compared with countries with similar level of income, the largest part of the life expectancy deficit was produced by working-age mortality from external causes for Russia and cardiovascular disease at older ages for Moscow. Interpretation Given the economic wealth of Russia, its life expectancy could be substantially higher. Sustaining the progress seen over the past decade depends on the ability of the Russian Government and society to devote adequate resources to people's health.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns in the relationship between life expectancy and gross domestic product in Russia in 2005–15: a cross-sectional analysis

Shkolnikov

Andreev

Tursun-zade

et al. 2019

The Lancet Public Health

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“…Firstly, the restricted data we have for 2021 means we cannot provide an analysis on the level of granularity which we would wish for this year. Secondly, as with all studies of mortality in Russia, there will inevitably be challenges concerning both completeness of registration as well as discrepancies in the place of registration of a death because of migration and different living/working patterns [ 47 ]. This is especially likely to be the case of the Republics in the Caucasus, and perhaps also the areas surrounding major cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 and excess mortality in Russia: Regional estimates of life expectancy losses in 2020 and excess deaths in 2021

Scherbov

Gietel‐Basten²,

Ediev³

et al. 2022

PLoS ONE

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Accurately counting the human cost of the COVID-19 at both the national and regional level is a policy priority. The Russian Federation currently reports one of the higher COVID-19 mortality rates in the world; but estimates of mortality differ significantly. Using a statistical method accounting for changes in the population age structure, we present the first national and regional estimates of excess mortality for 2021; calculations of excess mortality by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2020; and mean remaining years of life expectancy lost at the regional level. We estimate that there were 351,158 excess deaths in 2020 and 678,022 in 2021 in the Russian Federation; and, in 2020, around 2.0 years of life expectancy lost. While the Russian Federation exhibits very high levels of excess mortality compared to other countries, there is a wide degree of regional variation: in 2021, excess deaths expressed as a percentage of expected deaths at the regional level range from 27% to 52%. Life expectancy loss is generally greater for males; while excess mortality is greater in urban areas. For Russia as whole, an average person who died due to the pandemic in 2020 would have otherwise lived for a further 14 more years (and as high as 18 years in some regions), disproving the widely held view that excess mortality during the pandemic period was concentrated among those with few years of life remaining–especially for females. At a regional level, less densely populated, more remote regions, rural regions appear to have fared better regarding excess mortality and life expectancy loss–however, a part of this differential could be owing to measurement issues. The calculations demonstrate more clearly the true degree of the human cost of the pandemic in the Russian Federation.

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“…This effect could explain up to 0.5 and 1.5 years of Moscow's advantage compared to Russia as a whole in female and male LE, respectively (Papanova et al. 2018). At the same time, other possible factors that were not taken into account in this study could have explained the lower mortality in the capital city.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Where Do People Live Longer in Russia in the 21st Century? Life Expectancy across Urban and Rural areas

Shchur¹,

Shkolnikov²,

Timonin³

et al. 2021

Population & Development Rev

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The twenty‐first century marked the beginning of rapid health improvements in Russia. In the late 2000s and the 2010s, there was already a moderate decrease in inter‐oblast mortality disparities, with the exception of the growing life expectancy (LE) advantage of Moscow and Saint Petersburg. We have used newly available data to explore LE changes from 2003–2005 to 2015–2017 and determinants of LE differences across settlements of different types and population sizes. We distinguished between three major segments of the LE distribution: Moscow and Saint Petersburg at the top, large‐ and medium‐sized cities in the middle, and smaller urban and rural areas lagging behind. The LE differences among these three groups increased, but the within‐group differences decreased. The gaps between bigger cities and the “periphery” within oblasts grew, and this part of the total dispersion had increased substantially by 2015–2017. Education, together with population size, explained 62 percent (for females) and 67 percent (for males) of LE variation across 292 geographic units in 2015–2017. Our results suggest that slower health progress in small urban and rural areas is an important obstacle to further mortality reduction at the national level and is a matter of public health concern.

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High Life Expectancy of Muscovites Over Age 80: Reality or a Statistical Artifact?

Cited by 6 publications

References 9 publications

Patterns in the relationship between life expectancy and gross domestic product in Russia in 2005–15: a cross-sectional analysis

Patterns in the relationship between life expectancy and gross domestic product in Russia in 2005–15: a cross-sectional analysis

COVID-19 and excess mortality in Russia: Regional estimates of life expectancy losses in 2020 and excess deaths in 2021

Where Do People Live Longer in Russia in the 21st Century? Life Expectancy across Urban and Rural areas

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