High‐Resolution Ensemble Simulations of Intense Tropical Cyclones and Their Internal Variability During the El Niños of 1997 and 2015

Yamada, Yohei; Kodama, Chihiro; Satoh, Masaki; Nakano, Masuo; Nasuno, Tomoe; Sugi, Masato

doi:10.1029/2019gl082086

Cited by 17 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…Additionally, some recent studies found that anomalous subtropical NP warming was responsible for the failure in seasonal forecasting of the 2016 WNP TC season following the 2015–2016 El Niño event (Chen & Wang, ; C. Wang, Wu, et al, ; Y.‐K. Wu et al, ; Yamada et al, ; Zhan et al, ). Specifically, the WNP usually experiences an inactive TC season following a strong El Niño event due to the existence of an anomalous anti‐cyclonic circulation, which is coupled to the underlying SST cooling in the NP (B. Wang et al, ; B. Wang & Chan, ).…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unprecedented Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Genesis in 2018 Shaped by Subtropical Warming in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic

Wang

Cao

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (TCG) frequency in June‐September of 2018 reached a record high since 1965. This unprecedented TCG was mainly driven by the North Pacific (NP) and the subtropical North Atlantic (NA). TCs in the western North Pacific (WNP) predominately took a northward‐recurving track, resulting in the highest number of named storm days in the subtropical WNP on record. TCs in the eastern North Pacific propagated anomalously westward with three Category 4–5 hurricanes reaching the central North Pacific. The unprecedented TCG in the NP was caused by a persistent weakening of the NP subtropical high that was tightly coupled with the subtropical NP sea surface temperature (SST) warming. In the NA, enhanced TCG was mainly found in the subtropics owing to a favorable large‐scale environment forced by subtropical SST warming. The result here has important implications for understanding variability in TC activity on the hemisphere‐scale.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unprecedented Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Genesis in 2018 Shaped by Subtropical Warming in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic

Wang

Cao

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The second model was the 60‐km‐mesh Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI‐AGCM), version 3.2 (Mizuta et al, ; Murakami, Mizuta, et al, ; Murakami, Wang, et al, ; Yoshida et al, ), which was developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency and MRI. The third model was the 14‐km‐mesh Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) developed at the Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, and Riken (Miura et al, ; Nakano et al, ; Satoh et al, ; Satoh et al, ; Yamada et al, ; Yamada et al, ), which configures a global cloud‐resolving model and adopts nonhydrostatic governing equations and icosahedral grids. Some of the experiments were not conducted with NICAM (supporting information Table S1) owing to limited computational resources.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Mechanisms of the Active 2018 Tropical Cyclone Season in the North Pacific

Qian

Murakami

Nakano

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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The 2018 tropical cyclone (TC) season in the North Pacific was very active, with 39 tropical storms including eight typhoons/hurricanes. This activity was successfully predicted up to 5 months in advance by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast‐Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) global coupled model. In this work, a suite of idealized experiments with three dynamical global models (FLOR, Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model, and Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model) was used to show that the active 2018 TC season was primarily caused by warming in the subtropical Pacific and secondarily by warming in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, the potential effect of anthropogenic forcing on the active 2018 TC season was investigated using two of the global models (FLOR and Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model). The models projected opposite signs for the changes in TC frequency in the North Pacific by an increase in anthropogenic forcing, thereby highlighting the substantial uncertainty and model dependence in the possible impact of anthropogenic forcing on Pacific TC activity.

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“…On interannual time scales, the frequency of WNP TCs can be modulated by various climate factors such as the El Niño/La Niña Modoki 1,2 , the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) [3][4][5][6] , the Atlantic Meridional Mode 7 , tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) [8][9][10] , Indian Ocean SST [11][12][13][14] , and SST gradient between the southwestern Pacific Ocean and the western Pacific warm pool 15 . A more recent study has further pointed out that regional SST anomalies (SSTA) can modulate TC genesis in different parts of the WNP 16 .…”

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confidence: 99%

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in 2018: A Season of Extremes

Zhu

Zhang

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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The 2018 tropical cyclone (TC) season over the western North Pacific (WNP) underwent two extreme situations: 18 TCs observed during June-August (JJA) and ranked the second most active summer in the satellite era; only 5 TCs that occurred during September-October (SO), making it the most inactive period since the late 1970s. Here we attribute the two extreme situations based on observational analyses and numerical experiments. The extremely active TC activity and northward shift of TC genesis during JJA of 2018 can be attributed to the WNP anomalous low-level cyclone, which is due primarily to El Niño Modoki and secondarily to the positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM). Overall, the extremely inactive TC activity during SO of 2018 is due to the absence of TC formation over the South China Sea and Philippine Sea, which can be attributed to the in-situ anomalous low-level anticyclone associated with the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, although the positive PMM phase and El Niño Modoki still hold. Scientific RepoRtS | (2020) 10:5610 | https://doi.Model version 5.3 (CAM-5.3) 29 was used to perform numerical experiments. The model has T31 horizontal resolution (approximately 3.75° × 3.75°) and 26 vertical levels. Parameterization schemes adopted by the model include the deep convection scheme from Zhang and McFarlane 30 , the moist turbulence scheme from Bretherton and Park 31 , the shallow convection scheme from Park and Bretherton 32 , the stratiform cloud microphysics scheme by Morrison and Gettelman 33 , the Rapid Radiative Transfer Method for GCMs (RRTMG) radiation scheme 34 , etc. Details of the experiment design can be found in section 4.2. All the experiments were integrated for 100 years, simulations during the last 80 years were analyzed. Scientific RepoRtS | (2020) 10:5610 | https://doi.

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High‐Resolution Ensemble Simulations of Intense Tropical Cyclones and Their Internal Variability During the El Niños of 1997 and 2015

Cited by 17 publications

References 65 publications

Unprecedented Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Genesis in 2018 Shaped by Subtropical Warming in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic

Unprecedented Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Genesis in 2018 Shaped by Subtropical Warming in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic

On the Mechanisms of the Active 2018 Tropical Cyclone Season in the North Pacific

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in 2018: A Season of Extremes

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