Historical stages in transition of natural replacement of the Serbian population

Spasovski, Milena; Šantić, Danica; Radovanovic, Olgica

doi:10.2298/gsgd1202023s

Cited by 7 publications

(14 citation statements)

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“…In this case, common demographic indicators such as changes in population size, rates of natural increase and infant mortality rates across municipalities of Serbia are analyzed. Further, we want to test if the spatial patterns of observed demographic trends suggest the demographic homogenization of the country excluding Kosovo as was stated in the most recent studies (Spasovski, Šantić, Radovanović 2012). Bearing in mind that ethnic minorities in Serbia, except for Roma, are spatially concentrated across specific municipalities or group of municipalities, the results presented in this paper also reflect, although indirectly, the impact of differential demographic rates according to ethnicity on forming spatial clusters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 66%

“…Indeed, two opposed reproductive regimes existed in parallel -the one in Kosovo¹ resulted in a population growth rate that was among the highest in the world, while the other induced depopulation trends in the rest of the country . Differentiated patterns of recent demographic trends have been also noted at the subregional scale as a result of different onset and tempo of demographic transition in natural growth of population caused by different historical, ethnic, cultural and economic factors (Vojkovic 2003), wherein ethnicity is usually singled out as the crucial one (Spasovski, Šantić, Radovanović 2012), similar to the findings for some other ethnically heterogeneous societies (Yücesahin, Ozgur 2008). Yet, if Kosovo is excluded, the period after the dissolution of socialist Yugoslavia is commonly designated as a new post-transitional stage of intensified spatial homogenization of the country in terms of demographic ageing and depopulation (Spasovski, Šantić, Radovanović 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 74%

“…Differentiated patterns of recent demographic trends have been also noted at the subregional scale as a result of different onset and tempo of demographic transition in natural growth of population caused by different historical, ethnic, cultural and economic factors (Vojkovic 2003), wherein ethnicity is usually singled out as the crucial one (Spasovski, Šantić, Radovanović 2012), similar to the findings for some other ethnically heterogeneous societies (Yücesahin, Ozgur 2008). Yet, if Kosovo is excluded, the period after the dissolution of socialist Yugoslavia is commonly designated as a new post-transitional stage of intensified spatial homogenization of the country in terms of demographic ageing and depopulation (Spasovski, Šantić, Radovanović 2012). In a growing number of post-socialist countries, the period after 1990 is considered from the perspective of the second demographic transition (Sobotka, Krystof, Kantorová 2001;UN 2003) in line with the observation that it is a pan-European, trans-cultural phenomenon that spreads from northwest to southeast of the continent (Van de Kaa 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 74%

“…3a). The largest part of Kosovo entered the first phase of first demographic transition not before 1985 (Spasovski, Šantić, Radovanović 2012), which could explain to some extent why most of this region is not in a cluster of large reduction in rate of natural increase. Nevertheless, the hot spot analysis resulted in two large opposing clusters (Fig.…”

Section: Rate Of Natural Increasementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The former is recognized in the literature as the first depopulation subregional entity in Serbia while the latter could be explained by the resultant of emigration and long-lasting negative rate of natural increase of ethnic Hungarians if compared to the total population (Penev, ed. 2006;Gábrity Molnár 2011;Spasovski, Šantić, Radovanović 2012).…”

Section: Population Changementioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Spatial patterns of recent demographic trends in Serbia (1961–2010)

Nikitović¹,

Bajat²,

Blagojević³

2016

Geografie

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This study considers the spatial and temporal dimensions of demographic trends in Serbia between 1961 and 2010. Using appropriate spatial autocorrelation statistics, spatial patterns of common demographic indicators including changes in population size, the rate of natural increase and infant mortality rate are investigated across municipalities of Serbia. Also, the impact of differential demographic rates according to ethnic origin on forming spatial clusters is implicitly considered. Different stages of demographic transition across municipalities at the start of the analyzed period determined the spatial pattern of clustered subregions; ethnic origin appeared to be a strong factor of differentiation regarding population dynamics. The two opposed areas regarding the transition of rates of natural increase and infant mortality were clustered; the southern included Kosovo and the least developed subregions of Central Serbia. The City of Belgrade and Kosovo have been the two hubs of population growth in Serbia over the past 50 years, while the strongest depopulation refers to the north and east border regions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 66%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Section: Rate Of Natural Increasementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Population Changementioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Spatial patterns of recent demographic trends in Serbia (1961–2010)

Nikitović¹,

Bajat²,

Blagojević³

2016

Geografie

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Dynamics of suspended sediment load in the Morava River (Serbia) in the period 1967-2007

Manojlović

Manojlovic

Djokic

2016

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The study is concerned with determination of the trend of water discharge, suspended sediment concentration and sediment load in the most downstream profile of the Velika Morava River in the period 1967-2007. The gradual trend test (Mann–Kendall test – MK test) and abrupt change test (Pettitt test) have been employed on annual, seasonal and monthly water discharge, suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment load for the given time series. Both the Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests indicate that water discharge showed no significant annual trend or abrupt shift. However, annual suspended sediment concentration and sediment load showed significant decreasing trends (α=0.001). The average decrease of suspended sediment load transport amounted to 3.15 t/km2/yr. The Pettitt test results showed that the change-point year was detected in 1982. The average specific sediment load amounted to 134.6 t/km2/yr before the transition year, and 36.5 t/km2/yr after the transition year, i.e., it was reduced by 73 %. In the intra-annual distribution, the MK test results indicate that the most pronounced decreasing trend (α=0.001) of the sediment load is during summer and winter. Strong seasonal and monthly variability in sediment load was found. Sediment was strongly transported during spring months, in the period of frequent flood events. Almost 50% of the annual sediment is transported during March, April and May. Analysis of the discharge and suspended sediment concentration relationship revealed the existence of hysteresis loop in the shape of figure eight. The results of this study confirm the complex and heterogeneous nature of sediment response in the Velika Morava River.

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Demographic projections of depopulated zones in Serbia: The example of the municipality of Negotin

Vasic,

Gligorijevic

2023

B SERBIAN GEOGRAPHIC

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Demographic projections represent a multi-purpose instrument in predicting the population development for the purpose of spatial planning and organizing as well as local economic development. In Serbia, demographic projections are very rarely produced on territorial levels lower than regional, therefore, the projections that are depicted in this work will be focused on the municipality of Negotin with the goal of observing an exceptionally depopulated area located in Eastern Serbia. The projections have been created with a time horizon of the year 2040 by using the cohort-component method which is well-established in literature as a prevailing method of producing population projections. Population projections for the municipality of Negotin have been constructed in three variants all relying on the initial hypotheses of fertility, mortality, and migrations. This is also the first time that such projections have been made separately for a rural and urban area of the municipality of Negotin. Results have shown that by the year 2040, the population will range between 17 and 18 thousand citizens, with the depopulation rate in rural areas being twice as high as that of urban ones. With the current demographic state in mind, it is evident that only direct interventions in the domain of migrational policies could slow down the pace of depopulation. This is due to the fact that the current fertility potential is undoubtedly insufficient to slow down depopulation even in the occurrence of a complete response to pronatalist policies.

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Historical stages in transition of natural replacement of the Serbian population

Cited by 7 publications

References 0 publications

Spatial patterns of recent demographic trends in Serbia (1961–2010)

Spatial patterns of recent demographic trends in Serbia (1961–2010)

Dynamics of suspended sediment load in the Morava River (Serbia) in the period 1967-2007

Demographic projections of depopulated zones in Serbia: The example of the municipality of Negotin

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